Hollywood Stars: Bet Big on Dolphins-Rams MNF Battle
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
Savor the flavor of these NFL weekends people, they fly by. Can’t believe there’s 10 weeks in the books already. Wow! Well, it’s manic Monday which can only mean one thing—more football, woohoo! Cracking open the vault to share my personal hand notes wound up being so impactful, let’s run it back. If it ain’t broke, I ain’t breaking it…
And, oh yeah … How (expletive) on Earth do the Chiefs manage to keep winning games like this?!?! Denver’s missed FG was the four-leaf clover growing on a lucky horseshoe sitting atop a rabbit’s foot—I’m not mad it saved half my remaining Survivor pool … can you tell?
The Monday Night Blitz, Dolphins (2-6) at Rams (4-4): Will the real Miami Dolphins please stand up? Reinstalling Tua Tagovailoa into the offense Week 8 with a 2-4 record felt like an uphill battle, but one surely within reach. After all, the defense stepped up to carry the load by playing shutdown ball—exceeding expectations as a top-5 unit in yards/game and defensive EPA/snap. Well, it’s trading places all over again as the normally solid D surrendered +28 points in two straight, bringing the MIA losing streak to three off the bye. Miami’s returning a couple starters on defense tonight, which never hurts, but it’s going to take a concerted effort to neutralize these Rams.
Expect the Fins to continue rolling on offense as Tua regains continuity within the system. Mike McDaniel reset the dials in terms of pass rate (remember, Miami’s season-long stats are useless if including backup QBs), and it’s working thus far—Tua completed +80% of attempts with a +111 passer rating. The actual pass distributions irked me a touch, getting away from Jaylen Waddle, whom I view as a legit superstar—but that’s a different story for another day. Waddle could be in line for an increase in targets if Tyreek Hill sits, as the Cheetah missed the last two days of practice with a wrist injury and is considered a game-time decision. Something to monitor as the day goes.
Flip over to the Rams and the headline is crystal clear for the world to see—sustained success in the NFL spawns from long-standing, cohesive relationships between a courageous coach and elite quarterback. Honestly, how many times have you written off this team, especially after the Super Bowl win? The whole idea of that championship was that it came at the expense of mortgaging the future (deal!). But not so fast grasshopper, the Rams patched together three straight victories getting their record to .500 through eight—and they’re about to reach peak powers once more.
Quoting line play as the most underappreciated and under-analyzed part of the game is a tradition as old as time. Reminds me of John Madden regaling us with tales of football players doing football things in the trenches. Anyway, Los Angeles returns two starters (Jonah Jackson, Steve Avila) to the O-line to try and save this ground attack just in the nick of time. Don’t look now, but the Rams somehow managed those four wins despite ranking dead last in yards/carry (3.8) and yards after contact per rush (2.36)—not an easy feat. Kyren Williams is a beast in the red zone, and is second in the NFL with 8 TDs.
On the fast track at SoFi Stadium and an Over/Under set at 48.5, with so many stars on the field it’s a great game for a player prop or two.
Two teams behind the 8-ball looking to rectify hopes for a season gone awry should make for a solid game for four quarters.
WEEK 10 NFL GAME BETTING MODEL
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball—Slow And Steady
- The New York Prop Exchange—Slot Machine
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Slow And Steady
Los Angeles finally sends its offense onto the field as one, returning beef to the O-line off the IR and without either star WR on the injury report. Expect Sean McVay to do his usual thing, slamming Kyren Williams into the front seven for three yards and a cloud of dust. That is, until the opposition cheats up on defense and Stafford goes over the top. The Rams rank top-3 in total play-action passes and yards gained off them so you know LA is licking its lips, just waiting to queue up those calls at the right time.
It’s the first half of McVay’s equation I’m focusing on for today’s first player prop. Kyren boasts one of the highest rush shares in the league, second in total rushes behind only Derrick Henry. That said, it’s quantity over quality—Kyren’s workload is a function of understanding assignments through mistake-free ball, not exuding talent on the field.
Check out where Kyren Williams’ ranks among all 46 RBs with +50 rush attempts.
3.7 Yards Per Carry: 41st
-0.5 Yards Over Expectation Per Rush: T-45th
2.5 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 43rd
1 +20-Yard Carry: T-40th
10.7 MPH Average Max Speed: 43rd
Point being, when I say three yards and a cloud of dust I mean it. Yes, Kyren’s going to get the rock and presumably rack up yardage, but those respective props lines currently sit above my mean projections. I’m leaning into what can only be described as a lack of backfield explosivity.
Of course, we’ll need the Dolphins to hold up their end of the bargain. Can’t call the MIA rush defense great since the LB tackling is average at best. However, 4.0 YPC and just a single +20-yard carry since coming off the bye against tough competition (IND, ARI, BUF) stands on its own.
Last note for reference—of 161 attempts so far this season, Kyren ran only 2 (or 1.2%) clear of tonight’s bar for longest rush.
THE BET: Kyren Williams Longest Rush Under 15.5 Yards (-120) BET 365
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Claudia and Thor identify the Week 12 Early College Football Betting Lines.
📺 Ian and Dwain have the Week 10 Instant Recap to help get you ready for the week ahead.
🏈 Puka Nacua over how many receiving yards? Check out the MNF Player Props.
🧨 Could there be fireworks at SoFi Stadium tonight? Matt LaMarca looks at all betting angles for Dolphins-Rams on MNF.
🌋 Will Ravens-Steelers be another AFC North brawl? Matt LaMarca uncovers the Early Week 11 Betting Lines.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Don’t Jonnu?
The further I dig into this one, the less I’m loving the potential for fireworks implied by Vegas’ 48.5 game total. LA, in particular, played really well on defense during its win streak—it’s hard to fake leading the league in defensive EPA/play against decent competition. McVay’s so difficult to get a beat on stylistically because the foundation is heavily predicated on deception, which leads to the elevated 40% pressure rate and over 13 hurries per game. I’ve noticed a slight struggle in covering tight ends, an unsurprising result of deploying so many 6-DB dime packages. Just last week A.J. Barner made four grabs. Why can’t Jonnu Smith?
I alluded to Miami’s pass distribution up top and as a collective we have to stop wishcasting our own desires onto the field. And I’m guilty myself, having tied up cash in Jaylen Waddle shares via fantasy, futures, etc. That said, betting (and life in general for that matter) is all about adaptation and knowing when to pull the cord to reverse course. What I mean is, it’s less about if you were wrong than when you were wrong and for how long before correcting.
If you stripped nameplates off the jerseys there would be no question who the clear second fiddle and dominant slot wideout is behind Tyreek Hill since the bye—look at Smith’s leads across a laundry list of critical stats during that span:
- Targets: +9
- Receptions: +9
- Receiving Yards: +110
- Target Per Route: +13.4%
- Yards Per Route: +1.51
- Yards After Catch Per Reception: +1.7
- Team Target Share: +10.3%
So why is Jonnu Smith’s reception prop set at O3.5 even though Tua’s back with an inflated game total and Smith has cleared that bar in each of the last four games? I’m not sure, but I have a sneaking suspicion the (-110) price tag won’t last.
THE BET: Jonnu Smith O3.5 Receptions (-110) DraftKings
The Sharps Like The Under Tonight
Source: Sharp Hunter
Week 11 in the NFL wraps up in LA with the Rams hosting the Dolphins.
The Rams find themselves as a 2.5-point favorite. We’re looking at a consensus 49 total, but there are some 48.5s out there, depending on where you’re betting.
At Sharp Hunter, we track bets from sharp bettors to give us an idea of where the sharp money is going.
Not just in the NFL, but College Football and in the NBA as well.
Our sharps are focusing on the under Monday night, as we’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score to back that up.
I am with the sharps with this Monday Night under 49 for a few reasons.
The stats say the Dolphins are going to try and run the ball here and slow this game down. Miami is running the ball over 53% of the time in neutral-pace situations—third most in the NFL.
With the Rams getting healthy on offense, it will not be a surprise to see them try and run the ball against the 27th-ranked run defense in DVOA. More running from both teams will slow the game down and help the under.
I can see this game playing out with the Dolphins in chase mode and never getting there against this surging Rams team.
Then there is this trend from Action Network: The under is 97-80-3 in games where a team is coming off a +10-point comeback in the previous week. The Rams had a comeback like that last week against Seattle.
In this case, the trend is our friend.
It makes sense right? You expend all that energy and your offense can’t really fire the next week.
I like the Rams to win on Monday Night. I like the Rams to make the playoffs. And given the setup on Monday, I’m with the sharps as far as the total goes—UNDER 49 for me.
