In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

Home Cooking: We’ve all heard the famous adages regarding preparation … failing to prepare is preparing to fail; success is where preparation meets opportunity; or my personal favorite—give me five hours to chop down a tree and I’ll spend the first four sharpening my axe.

Cool quotes aside, I thought I could jump into the last decade of NFL postseason historicals in search of meaningful trends. Guess what?

One stuck out like a sore thumb …

Prepare to be underwhelmed, not every investigation discovers a lost tomb. Over the last 10 years, home teams dominated playoff action to the tune of a 71-37 record with huge leads in offensive success rate and EPA/play, resulting in nearly a touchdown difference in scoring margin. Hey, sometimes it’s exactly who you most suspect.

At this point, we’re all friends here and you should know me well enough to assume I wouldn’t just stop there. One factor, however, has historically leveled the playing field for visitors—nice weather. Makes sense, too. In games that kicked off with field temperature at 60° or above, home teams drop to just one game over .500 at 9-8 with less than one point separating winners and losers. Oh, how the tables have turned.

With Chargers-Texans and Vikings-Rams being played in domes, those games check that specific weather-related box, so I think it's interesting food for thought. Projected temperatures in Tampa Bay for Buccaneers-Commanders are just under that threshold, but that might still make that game a tossup. Definitely worth considering before running to the betting window with a fistful of home-team tickets in hand. 

Remember, we got you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.

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NFL Playoffs🏈💥—Sunday Wild Card Blitz

No. 7 Broncos (10-7) at No. 2 Bills (13-4): Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

After all these years handicapping pro football, I still struggle at times to block out the Las Vegas spread. Clearly the NFL’s among, if not the sharpest, betting market in the world so of course being cognizant of each live line is critical. Yet it’s incredibly difficult to not have that single piece of information cast enough doubt to second guess ourselves. 

May as well just tip my hand at this point—I’ve got Denver inside a touchdown with a much better shot at an upset than the 22.7% implied probability (+340) would suggest. Sean Payton has done an incredible job correcting course in the Mile High City, in particular on the offensive side given the subpar on-hand explosives. Not to push small samples, but I do think the Broncos’ recent metrics matter more than most. Combining a first-year coach plus a rookie quarterback will always take time, usually requiring at least an offseason or two to fully develop continuity. Who’s got time for all that? Not Denver, which is why Payton’s earned reputation as a QB whisperer—Drew Brees played a role, too—was an immense help to Nix’s development.

The in-season growth is nothing short of remarkable if you ask me. This rag-tag squad nobody expected anything from this past summer is top 3 in scoring and point differential since Week 11—that’s a half season of ball we’re talking about. 

Took me a minute to identify the major change and it’s in the Broncos’ play-action game. Look at the clear rectangular breakout in the chart below.

I mention the Denver offense so much because it’s the game’s most undersung unit in my opinion. Buffalo has experienced injuries to the secondary over the last five weeks, resulting in some pretty ugly slotting on the old spreadsheet:

  • 389.4 Yards Allowed Per Game: 30th
  • -0.32 EPA/Dropback: Last
  • 107.5 Opposer Passer Rating: 30th
  • 25.6 Completions Allowed Per Game: Last
  • 289.4 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: Last
  • 19 +20-Yard Completions: 31st
  • 12 Passing TDs: 30th

How does this fail for Denver? Easy. Josh Allen puts 52 other players on his back and does a triple lindy into the end zone. Sure, Denver’s defense rates in the top 5 on the season in a litany of categories like scoring, yards/play, and EPA/play—but that doesn’t discount the Jekyll-and-Hyde element here. The Broncos allowed two QBs to go over 400 yards passing and surrendered 30+ points four times in just the last eight weeks.

Buffalo’s the rightful favorite, but the public is giving the defense more of an advantage than they deserve in my opinion. LEAN: DEN +9

#7 Packers (11-6) at #2 Eagles (14-3): Sunday, 4:30pm EST

Unlike its AFC counterparts, our first NFC tilt on this playoff docket is a bit more straightforward to handicap. Green Bay versus Philadelphia all comes down to health. Sad to say for the Cheesehead faithful, when Christian Watson’s season ended on a torn ACL, I think any chance for a deep Packers run went with it. Losing the former second-round draft pick irreparably stunts Green Bay’s vertical game. Watson leads all GB wideouts in yards/route because the vast majority of routes run are either a corner (7), post (8), or go (9). A true threat to house any ball he catches, how can Matt LaFleur not miss Watson’s chunk plays and 17+ air yards/target?

Conversely, if I’m not mistaken, the Eagles will suit up all the cards in the deck Sunday. Thankfully, that includes QB Jalen Hurts, who finally returned to practice from a concussion back in Week 16—one he actually attempted to play through. Before the head injury (which is binary and not expected to impact play), we crowned Philly in this very newsletter as the league’s best team—and I’m not backing down now.

For a boomer like me, Vic Fangio’s defense represents the purest poetry in motion. Starting with multiple bullies in the front seven, no O-line is safe from collapse when they hit the three-point stance. Being able to create constant pressure and push opposing QBs off-platform without sending the blitz is a huge advantage. From macros to run-stopping and pass defense, they simply do everything well on a consistent basis—and the year-to-date stats are a perfect reflection of just that:

  • 17.8 Points Allowed Per Game: 2nd
  • 59.0 Plays Allowed Per Game: T-1st
  • 278.4 Yards Allowed Per Game: 1st 
  • 4.7 Yards Allowed Per Play: 1st
  • +0.09 Defensive EPA/Play: 2nd
  • 26.4 Average Drive Distance: 1st
  • 31.6% Scoring Drive Success: T-1st
  • +0.17 Defensive EPA/Rush: T-2nd
  • 22 Forced Fumbles: 1st
  • 174.2 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 1st
  • 55.3% Tackle Success: 3rd 

So as much as I like Green Bay on both sides of the ball this season, the matchup is a total disaster in my opinion. Even if Jordan Love manages to work down the field a few times, Philadelphia’s too balanced to not outlast them. LEAN: PHI -4.5

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The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Marvelous Marvin Mims

THE BET: Marvin Mims O37.5 Receiving Yards (-110) BET365

Having spent the better part of this week hyping the Broncos, I’m staying on brand. Without relitigating Buffalo’s recent failures defending the pass, it’s worth noting that the Bills’ almost exclusive +5-DB style of defense invites production underneath. Sean McDermott deploys lots of two-high safety shells overarching Cover-6 concepts. Backing up defenders opens a soft spot behind the D-line—precisely why we’ve seen slot WRs produce to the degree they have against BUF

  • -90.2 Defensive EPA vs Slot WR: Last
  • 8.2 Slot WR Receptions Per Game: T-31st
  • 90.2 Slot WR Receiving Yards Per Game: 29th

Part of Denver’s renaissance sits with the newfound prevalence of Marvin Mims. Right around the time Denver began to surge on offense, the 2023 second-round pick was slowly usurping Denver’s slot role (image below).

Not sure if you watched the games, but the subsequent results are undeniable. Mims eclipsed this line in seven of the Broncos’ last eight games (image below)—and I don’t think it stops Sunday. This trend is our friend.

Make sure to check out Super Wild Card Weekend Betting Odds.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

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