In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues
It’s time for an oldie but goodie worth highlighting if I’m going to expose people to betting on total bases.
Note and remember that not all bases are created equal. Inevitably, someone is going to bet over 1.5 bases and absolutely lose their mind when their hitter goes 1-4, BB but not cash. Yes, I know it’s called a base on balls but that’s not how it works. Understand and embrace that crucial aspect of the wager—players with high walk rates need that accounted for.
Staying on the topic of knowing rules, this one’s more fluid and not set in stone like TB. For the longest time, MLB bets were scratched and refunded if the listed starter got replaced. Since the inception of online books nationwide, that’s changed.
Granted, there are compelling arguments for either side but it’s on us to know when it’s house-specific. For example, you would absolutely not want to ever lay significant juice on an MLB game anywhere you’re on the hook for a pitching change. Know the rules.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Worthy Of Our Attention
I wouldn’t necessarily call today’s NFL bet contrarian, just maybe slightly out of character for a spreadsheet sophisto like myself.
Usually one to avoid most of the obvious uncertainty, even I can’t always deny myself the prospect of a shiny new toy. Enter Xavier Worthy, Kansas City’s 28th overall draft pick, who quite literally ran the fastest 40-time in combine history.
Betting on Patrick Mahomes always feels so easy to justify. I mean, we’re betting on Patrick Mahomes—that’s the argument. This man made chicken salad out of chicken waste last year, somehow averaging 261+ passing yards per game with a decimated WR room (below).
My first instinct said to dig into Mahomes’ focus out wide. Hollywood Brown is down and I figured Rashee Rice would fill in as the primary slot guy. It should come as a surprise to no one that Mahomes excels in that, like everything else (below).
Speaking of surprises, something did stand out to me regarding usage this preseason for Xavier Worthy with Mahomes on the field. The rookie wasn’t relegated to simply playing outside, posting a 56% wide, 44% slot alignment distribution. If the Chiefs do plan to mix up utilizations and go out of their way to create touches for Worthy in this manner in Week 1, you can bet one thing—it’s the last time his line sits under 50 receiving yards this year.
Sure, the Ravens played tough pass defense in 2023 (below), but that’s a competition-based stat. We’re also talking about a healthy, retooled Mahomes-led offense. If you’re wondering what the books think, look no further than Mahomes’ passing prop, set one measly yard over last year’s average at 262.5.
So, do we think a full-time Chiefs WR, who happens to be the fastest footballer on Earth, can reel in roughly ~18% of Mahomes’ projected passing output? If Worthy’s preseason 25% target share or 2.44 yards per route run is any indication, the answer is a resounding yes.
THE BET: Xavier Worthy Week 1 Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110) (0.5 units)
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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Rowdy Roddery Piper
Oh boy, the poor Marlins’ pitchers have been decimated by injuries. What was supposed to be a season anchored by frontline starters Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, and Eury Perez has turned into … whatever this is.
With an entire rotation on the shelf, the Fish turn to rookie righty Roddery Munoz, who’s experienced an undeniably rough go in the bigs thus far through 81.1 IP—5.98 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 8% K-BB, 6.57 xERA, 2.55 HR/9. Woof.
Lefties in particular have eaten Roddery’s lunch (.303 BA, 1.070 OPS, .428 xwOBA), so give me Colorado’s big bruiser Michael Toglia. Not to look too professional with this whole writing thing of mine, but I’d like to draw from the lesson regarding bases at today’s open. Our rational path to failure here is taking multiple walks—but to me, even for a patient hitter, it’s baked into the price (+110). Toglia is killing the ball this month through 54 PA vs RHP: .989 OPS, .320 ISO, 19% Barrel, .425 xwOBA, 3 HR.
The Marlins also sold off whatever bullpen pieces weren’t nailed down at the break, so don’t expect much improvement from the 5.79 ERA over the last two weeks. And, oh yeah, the game is being played at some place called Coors Field. I heard once that’s good.
THE BET: Michael Toglia O1.5 Total Bases (+110)
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Check out the guest appearance by Matthew Berry on the Dan Patrick Show.
🚨 Get ready to cash in on Matthew Freedman’s Bold Betting Predictions for the 2024 NFL Season.
💰 Week 1 is quickly approaching. Time is running out to lock in our staff’s favorite futures bets.
😢 Saying farewell to one of the most interesting cases of “What could have been.” It’s cut season.
