In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Putting Rigged Claims To Rest: Well, if last night’s outright decimation of Kansas City down in The Big Easy didn’t do the job, nothing will. Oof.
If anything, it’s once again been firmly re-established that achieving interior pressure without blitzing (exactly what we spoke about last week) is the ultimate differentiator.
Think back to the championship Giants team that derailed the Patriots’ hopes for a perfect season as a similar analog.
The Chiefs mustered all of 20 total first-half yards, yes you read that right—TWENTY. Patrick Mahomes finally looked vulnerably human in his second-worst game as a pro (including the playoffs). Apparently, KC’s late fake-out breakout nudged him past a -0.33 EPA in Week 9 of 2021 versus Green Bay. Whoop-de-doo.
Hold on, let me get my angry old man face on. (taps mic) That was the worst Super Bowl … ever! I’ll leave the commercials and halftime review to the experts, but no matter how you slice it, last night was a rough scene.
During the first and only four competitive minutes of the game, you could tell social media had its blade at the ready with the referees’ names on it. A “controversial” offensive pass interference call—one I would’ve flagged personally, placed some black-and-white-striped blood in the water. Philly’s wide receiver went directly to the head twice, right in front of the referee—with the second half of that double-tap turning the defender’s noggin at the facemask.
Suddenly, zebra was on the menu in Nola.
It was all downhill from there for the Chiefs, as the Eagles’ front seven went bananas, mustering six sacks and a 47%-plus pressure rate on zero blitzes. Yes, zero. Like the number below one.
As for me, I’m not bitter. Well, as a Jets fan, I’m always bitter, so not any more sour than the standard. It’s not like I had a 70:1 Jahan Dotson “First TD” ticket or anything, who had a TD called back after falling just short. (AUDIBLE SIGH)
The games may be over for now, but the action and analysis is just getting started.
Remember, we’ve got you covered year-round. Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams’ needs. Our very own Thor Nystrom was on the ground at the Senior Bowl to help provide you with the very best info straight from the players and coaches themselves. And plenty of serious betting and fantasy content.
Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
⏰ Tennessee is on the clock … pick-by-pick predictions for Round 1 of the NFL Draft.
🏆 Super Bowl LX Odds are live … and we have a new favorite.
📝 Grading your Super Bowl party props? Yes, A.J. Brown did, indeed, read a book.
📺 The verdict is in—did the Super Bowl 59 commercials live up to the expectations?
🤠 Another NFC East team with their eyes on the prize. They just need some a lot of help.
🦅 If Jordan’s new Jalen Hurts commercial doesn’t give you chills, I don’t know what will.
2025 NFL Honors🏈🏆—And The Award Goes To …
With all the time invested and production value involved with the Super Bowl, it’s easy to miss out on NFL award season. So before we turn the final page on the 2024-2025 year that was, the award goes to …
NFL MVP: Bills QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen finally takes home his first MVP after three separate top-5 finishes—much to the chagrin of Lamar Jackson lovers everywhere. I’m not going to pretend to understand the parameters, nor do I have a vote. I assume it boiled down to the perception of an inferior surrounding cast, which frankly, isn’t the most compelling of arguments. You can see from the voting totals, it finished as close as can be. In my opinion, we need to channel our inner-1979 MLB voters and re-normalize the Co-MVP (Willie Stargell and Keith Hernandez shared the award, and the sun managed to rise the next morning).
NFL Coach of the Year: Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings
Another impossible award to objectively quantify, Kevin O’Connell added seven wins to Minnesota’s win total from the prior year without the benefit of experience at the QB position. When the Vikings lost rookie QB J.J. McCarthy for the season in their first preseason game, most analysts thought any chance of success with it. Credit the bounceback for the hardware in this one.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
Thank goodness this award exists. We know a running back isn’t winning the MVP anytime soon—and it’d have been an absolute shame to send Saquon home empty-handed after outrushing the entire field by nearly 11%. Congratulations to Barkley on leaving cursed MetLife Stadium and excelling at such a high level.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Broncos CB Pat Surtain II
The individual defensive player pool felt a bit shallow this season without any true interior dominators, allowing Pat Surtain II to win the DPOY as just the third DB to do so in thirty years. Denver’s shutdown corner posted four picks, a fumble forced and recovered to go with one TD scored
NFL Comeback Player of the Year: Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Sorry, but I don’t have the time, digital real estate, or bandwidth to either debate or define the rules for this award either. To sum up in a sentence, going forward I’d think about it as the biggest injury bounceback from the prior season. Burrow missed the entire second half of 2023 with a torn wrist ligament and roared back with a vengeance, leading the league in completions (460), passing yards (4,918), and touchdowns (43). Joey B. is the man.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
To me, Jayden Daniels packed this honor safely away about halfway through the season to make a run at league MVP. Honestly, if we’re going to include roster quality and singular importance to the team as a whole in the discussion, you’d be hard-pressed to top the rookie phenom. Hopefully, Washington does the right thing and surrounds him with more explosivity in the WR room. Well deserved, and the sky’s the limit looking downrange.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Rams LB Jared Verse
No Aaron Donald? No problem—the Rams’ first-year LB led all NFL rookies in splash plays (34), pressures (77), and hurries (56). Easy choice for the Associated Press. Goes to show you what hitting on draft picks at determinative positions can mean for a team as a whole.
Looking to get a head start on your NFL futures for 2026? Look no further …
Building Blocks🧠🧮—Sharpen Your Axe
NFL action may only be visible through the rearview mirror, but before we dive headlong into MLB betting (which we absolutely will), first you must sharpen your axe.
What I mean is whenever a long and arduous road presents itself, don’t be shy in preparation. As the incomparable Abraham Lincoln would say “Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”
We may as well lean into the learning aspect while we’re still waiting impatiently for Opening Day—it’s the perfect time for to me share my favorite foundational lesson in risk ventures, one I learned a very long time ago that made me a profitable trader.
No bet is better than a bad bet, and I can prove it.
For example, let’s say you have $100 on any given day to bet responsibly at a 10% maximum risk per play. Somehow, on your very first bet, a great (+100) read goes sideways. An unthinkable error out of nowhere winds up costing you that $10 win—and 10% of your bankroll with it ($90 remaining).
Then, on your next bet, you win back 10% at the same even money price. You aren’t back at breakeven, you’re still down 1%. Therefore, every 10% you lose costs you 11% to recovery—the quantifiable reason to be selective.
Silly as it may seem on the surface, understanding the value of a percentage point separates those who sustain in live markets from those who chronically deposit.
Yea, I know—simple, yet mind-blowing. You’re welcome.
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
