In the Week 7 Sunday Betting Life Newsletter — entitled “Backup QBs, Gross” — I bemoaned the state of the QB position in the NFL and noted that we had a lot of backups starting.
I should’ve just kept my stupid mouth shut and appreciated the fact that we had football.
For my insolence, the gods of gambling and gridiron gave us a Week 8 slate that featured a host of No. 2 QBs… and then a panoply of injuries at the position.
- Kirk Cousins (Achilles): Exited fourth quarter with a season-ending injury
- Kenny Pickett (ribs): Exited with injury, ruled out for second half
- Tyrod Taylor (ribs): Started for Daniel Jones (neck), hospitalized
- Matthew Stafford (thumb): Injured hand in the second quarter, exited in the third quarter
- Desmond Ridder (head): Exited for concussion evaluation, cleared but benched
- Will Levis: Started for Ryan Tannehill (ankle)
- Zach Wilson: Started for Aaron Rodgers (Achilles)
- Gardner Minshew: Started for Anthony Richardson (shoulder)
- Joshua Dobbs: Started for Kyler Murray (knee)
- Tyson Bagent: Started for Justin Fields (thumb)
- P.J. Walker: Started for Deshaun Watson (shoulder)
To borrow from Rick Pitino: “Tom Brady’s not walking through that door, fans. Drew Brees is not walking through that door, and Philip Rivers is not walking through that door.”
Here are my thoughts on the five backup QBs we might see in Week 9 with no more than three NFL starts (Levis, Bagent, Hall, DeVito, Rypien), along with what I think their value is against the spread (ATS) relative to their starters.
Will Levis (Titans) vs. Ryan Tannehill: -2.5
Although I have Levis as -2.5 points relative to Tannehill, I want to be clear on a few items.
- Levis looked like a legit NFL QB in his first start with 238 yards, 4 TDs, and no INTs on 19-of-29 passing.
- He has unquestioned upside given his physical profile and college performance.
- I will be relatively quick to adjust him up if he continues to play well, and there’s a non-zero chance that he’s already better than Tannehill.
Of all the backup QBs who might start in Week 9, he’s the one who excites me the most.
Tyson Bagent (Bears) vs. Justin Fields: -3.8
T-Bag was one of my Week 8 fantasy favorites as a viable desperation QB2 under the premise that he was competent in Week 7 (21-of-29 passing, 70 QBR, just one sack, no turnovers) and facing a Chargers defense in Week 8 that was No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (23.7 FPPG).
But, alas, no.
Against the Chargers, Bagent threw two INTs and rushed for -1 yard in a mediocre-at-best performance as the Bears suffered a 30-13 loss on Sunday Night Football.
Fields is uncertain to return this week, and without him, there are few teams the Bears can beat.
Jaren Hall (Vikings) vs. Kirk Cousins: -6.3
Not only is Cousins out but No. 2 QB Nick Mullens (back, IR) is as well, so the Vikings will likely roll with Hall this week unless they sign or trade for another QB.
Aug 26, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall (16) rolls out to pass against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Here’s what I said about Hall in my preseason Vikings betting preview:
“Hall is a dual-threat fifth-round rookie with unimpressive size (6-foot and 207 pounds), advanced age (25 years old) and solid production (5,754 yards, 51 TDs passing; 148-657-6 rushing in two starting seasons).”
Despite his years, Hall started just two seasons at BYU before entering the NFL.
Without Cousins, the Vikings might be the worst team in the league.
Tommy DeVito (Giants) vs. Daniel Jones: -4.7
I take back what I just said about the Vikings.
If the Giants are without both Jones and Taylor, then they will likely be the worst team in the league.
Here’s what I said about DeVito in my preseason Giant betting preview:
“DeVito is a 25-year-old undrafted rookie. He’s not the Joe Pesci character from Goodfellas or the musician who founded the Four Seasons, unfortunately.”
For six years, DeVito did little of note at Syracuse and then Illinois. I don’t why we should expect him to be any better than bad in the NFL.
In his brief action in Week 8, he turned seven pass attempts into two completions and -1 yard while taking two sacks for nine yards.
Brett Rypien (Rams) vs. Matthew Stafford: -5.3
Since Stafford continued to play after suffering his injury, I imagine that he’ll be fine for Week 9, but that’s not certain, and No. 2 QB Stetson Bennett (undisclosed, IR) is out, so if Stafford is unable to go Rypien will likely draw the start.
Now in his fifth NFL season (and first with the Rams after spending four years with the Broncos), Rypien is a hilariously uninspiring player.
As an undrafted rookie, he entered the league with production galore as a four-year starter at Boise State (13,578 yards, 90 TDs passing for his career), but his 3.9 AY/A in the NFL on 130 pass attempts is horrendous.
The gods of gambling and gridiron be merciful, let us pray that we witness not a Rypien start this season.
