The College Football Playoff — and the first piece of the expanded bracket — kicks off Friday night, with No. 7 Notre Dame hosting No. 10 Indiana. Our model (the “Adjusted Thor Line”) has an almost-similar number as the point spread at most books. But there is value in one rushing prop, among a sea of possible bets for this game.

Lets jump in!

Friday, Dec. 20

Indiana at Notre Dame

College Football Playoff First Round Game

Spread: ND -7.5 (get updated odds here)  | Adjusted Thor Line: ND -7.3

8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN | South Bend, Indiana

Portal, Opt-out and Injury News

Notre Dame 

  • Starting CB Benjamin Morrison (Injury-OFY)

Indiana

  • Starting LG Drew Evans (Injury-OFY)
  • Starting CB Jamier Johnson (Injury-Questionable)

Handicap

The Battle for Indiana. Both teams are 11-1. Both went 9-3 ATS. Each won 10 of their games by 14 or more points. Neither played tough schedules. My system ranked Notre Dame’s No. 39, and Indiana’s No. 64.

Each has one really bad blemish on their resume. One week after beating Texas A&M in the opener, Notre Dame got upset, 16-14, by Northern Illinois. Indiana got smoked, 38-15, by Ohio State on Nov. 23.

Notre Dame has said that RB Jeremiyah Love and DT Howard Cross are both expected to play. Indiana CB Jamier Johnson is questionable after missing the regular-season finale.

We aren’t taking a position on the side of this game (the point spread and my model's number are almost exactly the same). We do, however, like one player prop. We’re going under on Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard at 52.5 rushing yards. 

Indiana’s run defense ranks No. 1 in yards per carry before contact, and has been very good at taking away the legs of running quarterbacks. The Hoosiers allow only 16.3 YPG rushing to opposing quarterbacks. 

As for Leonard, he’s gone under this number in three straight games, and in six-of-eight going back to late-September.

Thor’s Bet: Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard Under 52.5 Rushing Yards

(More Playoff games will be added soon. Check back shortly!)