In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
No question, the worst part of handicapping for you wonderful readers is the dreaded inherent losing streak. As a forward-facing professional tout, I’m battle-hardened to the point of being unable to care any less about losing. I know what kind of thorough research goes into each bit of analysis to front-run Closing Line Value (CLV) and get into consistent +EV positions.
Then, the result is out of our hands, so it’s critical to stay focused on things we do persuade. Remember, a (-200) favorite, which I’ve never once laid straight mind you, is considered “juiced up”—yet still only implies a win rate of two out of three.
So, I mean to say perspective is important, especially for newer players or those looking to establish a sustainable process. Never beat yourself up once you execute a trade if you implemented your usual, time-tested methodology. Now, if you made a procedural error, that’s a different story—of course, correct that immediately going forward.
If you find yourself getting visibly upset the ball didn’t bounce your way, I recommend re-assessing risk management. Not only is it one of the few things directly under our control, but I'd contend it’s the most critical.
Here’s a great piece of advice that stuck with me as a young, hyper-competitive, and highly emotional derivatives trader:
If you want to stay in this game long enough to leave on your own terms, lower the amount of every trade you make until the risk becomes inconsequential—that’s your individual unit size.
Freeing yourself from that strain will almost universally improve your decision-making. Then it becomes a question of capitalization but hey, they always said it takes money to make money.
No excuses, no retreat, and no surrender. Play like a champion. Just some helpful advice from your friendly neighborhood tout …
And … if you ever want additional guidance on how many units to allocate to a bet, our bettors have you covered …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Mike Drop In London
The Jets fly across the pond to face the Vikings in jolly old England this Sunday. Heads up for anyone not sharing contact with the Atlantic Ocean, this tilt starts before sunrise if you live on the West Coast. Fret not, it might actually be worth getting up for. It’s strength on strength as Minnesota’s top-5 scoring offense meets a ferocious Jets D, gaining weekly momentum seemingly every week.
You know Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold spent major time in the lab cooking up something special for an international revenge game. Hopefully, this will push the generally sluggish Jets on offense for once and get us to this reception total. I imagine Robert Saleh and Gang Green will come out playing lots of 11-personnel (3-WR), understanding the Vikings just hung +30 points on Houston and Green Bay, two above-average and well-coached defenses.
In need of a reliable outside target, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have increasingly turned to Mike Williams working his way back from a knee injury. He is abourt three weeks shy from the one-year anniversary of his ACL surgery, as Williams continues to take on a more involved role across the board—whether it’s route participation (image left), target earning (image center), or receptions per game (image left).
Defensively, Minnesota runs the most two-high coverage in the NFL by a mile. Combine that with its ability to score points and you easily discover why the Vikings are currently last in both completions and passing yards allowed—despite ranking just behind the Jets at 4th overall with +0.17 Defensive EPA/Dropback.
I love the prospect of this game script and how it could spark some offensive giddy-up, getting us to 3 catches for Williams before the half.
THE BET: Mike Williams, NYJ Over 2.5 Receptions (-115) BetMGM
We Have More NFL Prop Bets for Week 5
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Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Guardians Of The Galaxy
If the last 72 hours were just the playoff appetizer, I cannot wait for the entree. It’s been a wild ride full of incredible runs, especially for the Mets and Tigers. I was so happy for the fans of both teams, those wins were incredibly well-deserved. That said, leave it to me to bring out the bucket of cold water for Detroit’s magic run.
Prepare yourself for third-order thinking via my unique galaxy-brained 4-D analysis ... (ahem) Starting pitching is really important in playoff baseball.
No non-Tigers fan cheered more for this squad than I did, especially against the Astros. I wondered how Hinch planned to finagle his way through a short series on the road with only one legit starter and he made no bones about it …
No doubt Coach Hinch was deep in his matchup bag, kudos to him—he actually made it so no Houston hitter saw the same pitcher twice in their Game 2 victory. Impressive stuff. The problem? We’ve never seen anyone make a playoff run like that, and likely for a good reason.
By the way, my mental picture of translating that above quote is worth a thousand words if you ask me.
Kidding aside, Tarik Skubal is objectively great—but he’ll only be able to throw first in Game 2, and then Game 5 (if necessary). How many playoff outs are we realistically expecting from an overworked bullpen against a rested Guardians squad? Oh, and Cleveland possesses a legitimate MLB starting rotation, including multi-inning impact lefties Matthew Boyd and Joey Cantillo.
I’d call the bullpens pretty even on their face from a statistical standpoint (SIERA, WHIP, HR/9)—another testament to the phenomenal job done by Tigers’ management. That said, I’d be remiss to not mention it again. Stacking that volume of postseason innings onto a bullpen’s plate has never worked to this extent before.
Hate being so non-committal on the offenses as well, but MLB playoffs should be decided on the margins, right? To a man from a talent standpoint, I prefer the DET lineup—Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, and Colt Keith will be thrilling the Motor City for years to come. However, I worry about inexperience manifesting in approach flaws like chasing out of the zone, not taking walks, etc.
The Guardians, on the other hand, are stylistically built specifically for the postseason—Cleveland finished top-5 in team K%, Contact%, Pull%, and Steals. You couldn’t put together a better basket of underlying skills to manufacture runs when they’re at a premium. So I think it’ll be close, but the Guardians outlast the Tigers with the home-field advantage this ALDS.
THE BET: Cleveland To Win ALDS (-125)
More MLB Playoff Futures and Best Bets
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🥓 Have breakfast with Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton on the Week 6 College Football Pregame Show, kicking off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
💀 You’re alive! John Laghezza and Coach Gene have your Survivor picks for Week 5.
🏈 Who’s finding the painted area? We have your anytime TD bets for Week 5.
💰 Will this Bills RB get less run? Freedman breaks it down.
🥊 UFC 307 features Pereira vs. Rountree Jr., and we have the best bets for Saturday’s card.
