Betting

Is DK Metcalf a Good Bet to Lead the NFL in TDs?

by John Laghezza

2 months ago

In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog Fantasy

DEFINING THE UNIT: A quick lesson before takeoff. We’re running out of time before games that count begin so I’ll try and fit five pounds of stuff in a three-pound box before they do. Perhaps you’ve noticed already, but we post all bets on-site before they happen — and we invite you to ride along responsibly at Fantasy Life.

I’d like to at least break ground on the notion of betting “units.” The initial intention of the term was to bridge the gap between players of different account sizes. However, between social media charlatans and good old-fashioned American disinformation, something has been lost in translation. But unlike those same Twitter swindlers, we care about you and that’s a small part of what separates us from the pack.

The theories we cover are so important to understand if you intend to stay solvent in an irrational sports betting market. Before this turns into a novella, there's a simple association I recommend applying if tailing my (or anyone’s) bets.

Treat a unit as 1% of your total stack and set a daily allotted maximum risk.

This will not only cap your potential road to ruin but teach you a critical lesson in capitalization. So bet small, bet smart—if you are sharp, consistent, and disciplined, that percentage risked/gained will grow over time.

P.S. I asked A.I. what this may look like and I couldn’t stop laughing—how could I deny you?

ICYMI: NFL Week 1 Odds are LIVE. Compare and contrast the best prices across all major sportsbooks using our free NFL betting odds table!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Look Into My Crystal Ball
The New York Prop Exchange

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Hey Mr. DK, Play That Funky Music

Doing some research into TD regression and landed on this beauty of an NFL future, one that apparently does not care at all about what I discovered. We know touchdowns are wonky and therefore highly subject to variance—so give me the best inputs; physical skill plus opportunity.

For starters, if we’re solely betting on the tale of the tape I’ll take DK Metcalf (our consensus WR22 for fantasy this season) blind — not only do both speed and burst scores grade in the 99th percentile, but he’s also a tremendous human being. The freak in a room of freaks.

Regarding opportunities, there’s a world without squinting where DK doubled his 8 TD total last year, posting 10 different games with an end zone target in 2023—and multiples in six of his last 10 (below).

For the doubters in the stickiness of end-zone opportunities, Big Johnny Studd has something for you, too. Check out the league’s WR end-zone target leaders over the last two years…

Wait … where’s DK? Whoops, I must have made a boo-boo…. THERE HE IS! (below)

BEHOLD AN INSANE 35%+ SEPARATION FROM THE FIELD!

(Sorry for yelling)

THE BETS:

DK Metcalf Over 6.5 Receiving TD (+100); Risk 1.0 Unit

DK Metcalf Leads NFL In Receiving TD (+3000); Risk 0.25 Unit (min)

You can track the DK Metcalf bets as well as all of my other NFL Futures for 2024 in our FREE NFL Bet Tracker!

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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️ — Walker? Darn Near Killed Her!

I don’t mean to pick on the Dodgers every other day—but they’re so popular with the public, prices always seem to border on delicious (lesson?). The boys in blue just re-formed Voltron on offense and they’ll need it, because their starting pitching has been brutal.

One of the main culprits is Walker Buehler, who continues to get rolled out every five days despite allowing 13 ER in his last 11.1 IP. You name the metric, it’s moving in the wrong direction for the now 30-year-old righty — 6.09 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .305 BAA, 8.7% K-BB, 90% Zone-Contact, 2.25 HR/9. Woof.

Buehler’s especially struggled to find an out pitch against left-handed hitters, who have just gone to town on him all season—.372 BAA, 1.067 OPS, .365 xwOBA, 11 HR. Talk about from the frying pan to the fire…

Let’s roll with rookie superstud Colton Cowser, who has quietly usurped the leadoff spot for the Orioles vs RHP. He’s killed righties the entire second half through 113 PA — .290 BA, .903 OPS, and 7 HRs.

Still, a little bummed after last night when Toglia singled and scored in the first yet didn’t get two bases somehow, I wanted to compare Cowser’s 2H total bases, at an average of 1.5/Game…