In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

Welcome back for the next installment of our MLB team preview series, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason betting markets with all the most recent analyses.

Today, we put a bow on the American Central with last year’s division champion Cleveland Guardians before heading out west to dive into the improving Los Angeles Angels.

Top-10 Team Leaderboard, 2024: 
Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA)

  • Yankees: .346
  • Dodgers: .338
  • Diamondbacks: .332
  • Padres: .331
  • Orioles: .328
  • Mets: .327
  • Braves: .326
  • Phillies: .325
  • Astros: .325
  • Twins: .319

And, of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t wrap up with my favorite future bet for each team we cover?

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute! 

🏈 To my fantasy football people, we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

Let’s finish off the Midwest then off to the Big A! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!

WHO’S THE FAVORITE IN THE AL CENTRAL? (IT MAY SURPRISE YOU)

Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …

🔮 It’s the best time of the year when Kendall and Thor are talking 1st round of NFL Mock Draft.

👀 Could TreVeyon Henderson be the next Clinton Portis?

🏈 It could be a time of change for the Rams, especially in the WR room.

👉 Nico Collins is special and all, but he could use a running mate or two.

🧀 Who’s going to throw the ball for the Vikings next season?

👁️ Keep an eye on these underrated NFL Draft prospects.


⚾🗿MLB Team Preview—Cleveland Guardians🗿⚾

My Cle-town folks may want to sit down because they aren’t going to like this preview one bit. Yes, the Guardians may have finished 6.5 games ahead of their divisional rivals with the American League’s second-best record—but if I wanted to destroy their sweater, I could hold this thread and walk away (who saw what I did there?). For starters, Cleveland posted one of the best extra-inning (10-3) and one-run game (26-19) records in MLB, things that can quickly regress year-over-year … just ask the Padres.

General Manager Michael Chernoff must like his chances better than I do because the Guards did very little if anything to improve heading into this season. They shipped down-trending 2B Andrés Giménez up north to Toronto to clear a path for rookie Juan Brito, and swapped glue guy Josh Naylor out for 39-year-old Rock and Roll Hall of Famer Carlos Santana. He is supernatural at getting on base—lifetime OBP of .354.

Hard to describe the impact of those transactions as anything more than lateral.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Steven Kwan, LF: .267 / 71 / 52 / 4 / 16
  2. José Ramírez, 3B : .270 / 94 / 89 / 28 / 31
  3. Kyle Manzardo, DH: .233 / 47 / 57 / 15 / 1
  4. Carlos Santana, 1B: .215 / 55 / 59 / 15 / 3
  5. Lane Thomas, CF: .242 / 73 / 59 / 16 / 23
  6. Will Brennan, RF: .259 / 29 / 27 / 4 / 6
  7. Juan Brito, 2B: .235 / 60 / 58 / 12 / 8
  8. Bo Naylor, C: .209 / 42 / 45 / 13 / 6
  9. Brayan Rocchio, SS: .230 / 53 / 43 / 7 / 13

Hitting Overview: In the words of the late great Bing Crosby, do you see what I see? Because what this spreadsheet socialista notices is a lineup that lacks power, and is rife with flawed hitters, inexperience, and platoon bats. 

Steven Kwan is a solid archetypal leadoff hitter—a high-average hitter who’s impossible to strike out with elite contact skills. That said, dreaming of repeating a double-digit HR output despite a 25% hard-hit and 2% barrel rate feels like just that. Then, immediately after perennial MVP candidate José Ramírez hits, there’s not another Guardian projecting for 17+ homers and the real questions begin. 

Three players in their projected starting nine posted an expected batting average (xBA) below .210 in 2024 (Kyle Manzardo, Lane Thomas, Bo Naylor), with Brayan Rocchio under .230. Four hitters put up a +11% pop-up rate and not one (even J-Ram) had a double-digit barrel rate or +.390 expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon) in 2024. 

In my humble opinion, Cleveland is relying on players with either too little (Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito, Bo Naylor) or too much experience (Carlos Santana) to realistically expect another runaway playoff berth in a vastly improving AL Central.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Tanner Bibee, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Ben Lively, RHP:⭐
  3. Gavin Williams, RHP:⭐⭐
  4. Luis L. Ortiz, RHP:⭐
  5. Triston McKenzie, RHP:⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: If you’re getting the impression Cleveland’s rotation is top-heavy from a first glance, my star emojis are doing their job. Tanner Bibee’s a nice piece for sure, though I’d feel much more comfortable with him as my SP2. Sure, the 26-year-old righty boasts great command/control with an ability to generate whiffs—but I’d be lying if I said the flyballs and contact quality don’t scare me at times.

Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess how this shakes out. Ben Lively put up a decent year in 2024, managing to finagle his way to a 3.81 ERA / 1.25 WHIP combo, but make no mistake—it took some good fortune to get there. A 4.58 SIERA and single-digit swinging strike rate grounded by a 90-MPH fastball hardly inspires confidence in an SP2. 

If you weren’t already encouraged, now the real fun starts. Former top prospect Gavin Williams struggled with free passes when his season ended early on the 60-day IL due to inflammation in his throwing arm. Triston Mckenzie totaled just 165 IP over two years while racking up a couple of 60-day IL stints himself due to a strained right elbow and right teres major. And I guess former Pirate Luis L. Ortiz is OK, but he pitches to contact, lacking a devastating offering.

I better wrap this up before the Guards wind up next to the White Sox (ducks). I’m kidding … sorry that went too far. 

WHAT ARE TANNER BIBEE’S ODDS TO LEAD MLB IN STRIKEOUTS?

⚾👼MLB Team Preview—Los Angeles Angels👼⚾

Leave it to resident baseball genius Arte Moreno to decide he wants to try and build a winning franchise after Shohei Ohtani leaves (forehead smack). Not counting the White Sox's national disgrace, the Angels’ 63 wins in 2024 placed them 25.5 games off the AL West lead, right around other bottom-feeders like the Rockies and Marlins.

However, unlike some other complacent losers, at least Los Angeles’ front office guys were a bunch of busy beavers this offseason. The Halos bolstered all three phases of their squad this winter by acquiring slugger Jorge Soler, frontline starter Yusei Kikuchi, and established closer Kenley Jensen. 

Yes, they’re still rightfully booked with just a 10% chance (+900) to make the playoffs, but at least they get an A for effort. 

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Taylor Ward, LF: .255 / 80 / 80 / 24 / 6
  2. Luis Rengifo, 2B: .249 / 65 / 52 / 13 / 19
  3. Mike Trout, RF: .261 / 71 / 75 / 29 / 6
  4. Jorge Soler , DH: .238 / 70 / 78 / 28 / 1
  5. Nolan Schanuel, 1B: .248 / 64 / 45 / 6 / 6
  6. Logan O'Hoppe, C: .243 / 60 / 65 / 22 / 3
  7. Jo Adell, CF: .225 / 57 / 56 / 20 / 12
  8. Yoán Moncada, 3B: .244 / 33 / 33 / 8 / 2

Hitting Overview: If you’ve following our series from Jump Street (thanks!), we’re finally getting back to boiling certain teams down to having a type. It took me a minute to confirm, but I count six (yes, six) former first-round picks in the projected order alone (Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Nolan Schanuel, Jo Adell, Yoán Moncada, Zach Neto)—with another two of three bench bats (Tim Anderson, J.D. Davis) checking the box as well. Can there be too much of a good thing? I guess we’re about to find out.

As someone who not only bets at a high level but also plays high-stakes fantasy baseball, hopes are high for this offense. The latter can be a bit nerdy at times, but also serves as a good barometer—six hitters in the projected order get drafted inside MLB’s top-200 overall players. Not too shabby considering their expected win total jumped to 71.5 (-110), a substantial eight-game increase from 2024.

Believe it or not, this lineup’s going to rake at points—seven projected starters put up a .400+ SLG, and five of those posted an excellent +12% barrel rate. And for all the projected power, I’d only describe two hitters (Logan O’Hoppe and Jo Adell) as having poor plate approaches.  Five starters eclipsed 20+ bombs last season—and that’s not including Mike Trout, this generation’s version of Mickey Mantle (all the talent in the world WHEN he’s on the field). The Opening Day arrow’s pointing up for these Angels in the outfield, while they’re healthy at least.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. José Soriano, RHP:⭐⭐
  3. Tyler Anderson, LHP:⭐⭐
  4. Kyle Hendricks, RHP:⭐
  5. Reid Detmers, LHP:⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: Top-heavy rotations seem to be en vogue for 2025 and you can confidently place LAA in that bin. Signing Yusei Kikuchi, who finally broke out to his full potential with Houston (3.30 SIERA, 22.0% K-BB, 29.0% Whiff. .292 xwOBA) makes for an excellent frontline SP—though similar to Bibee in CLE, I'd prefer him as my SP2. After that, hold onto your hats … it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

José Soriano’s theoretically not a bad backend rotation piece—but how much can we realistically expect from a guy with 208 total innings pitched across four seasons plus a Tommy John surgery and a 60-day IL stint on the ledger? Get past Soriano and what do we get? A pair of soft-tossing 35-year-olds and Reid Detmers, who finished 2024 with an ERA of 6.70. Not great.

I know it’s a little early for these wager types but make a little room on the top line of your marble notebook for a note. Prepare to bet on Angels’ game totals in 2025—there’s going to be a lot of overs coming our way.

CAN MIKE TROUT WIN THE AL MVP?


🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account’s at $0.

THE BET: Mike Trout To Hit Over 24.5 Home Runs (-120) Risk To Win 0.50u (FanDuel)

If there’s any edge left in the player’s futures market, it revolves around our perceived certainty concerning health. As easy (and correct) as it seems sometimes to label athletes as injury-prone, it’s simply not the case. 

As my buddy Dr. Edwin Porras so eloquently states …

With that out of the way, let’s bet on Mike Trout's overs! When I compared him to Mickey Mantle earlier, I wasn’t exaggerating at all—Trout’s one of the best power hitters of all time. The underpinning power metrics dating back seven years paint a perfect picture of habitually destroying baseballs

  • 3,582 Plate Appearances
  • 177 Home Runs
  • 14.5 PA per HR
  • 48.1% Hard Hit
  • 71.8% Flyball / Line Drive
  • 17.1% Barrel
  • 13.5% Pulled Flyball / Line Drive

Mike Trout’s baseline bet sitting at just 24.5 HR is an obvious attack on health-related playing time—which I’ll admit has undeniably been spotty. However, some simple back-of-the-napkin math says we’ll need roughly 375 PAs to hit our goal, which seems doable. Not to mention Trout might just go nuts and hit 25 before the break … which is not out of the question whatsoever.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

WHAT ARE OUR EXPERTS’ FUTURES BETS?