Is The Brewers Reign In The NL Central Over?

In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

Midwest Mayhem: I hope you’re finding these MLB team previews as useful in your preseason research as I am. Today, we wrap up the National League’s Central Division with the Milwaukee Brewers then head back to the American League for the talent-laden Minnesota Twins.

Join me as we walk through anticipated Opening Day lineups (and if I may be so bold, Mike Kurland’s tracker, which he says is coming this week, is the tool you want to check in on this every day in the preseason), five category projections, and star-ranked rotations.

And of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t lead off with my favorite future bet for each team we cover?

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute! 📕

🏈 To my fantasy football people, we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

• Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams’ needs.
• Thor Nystrom just came out with his QB rankings for the 2025 NFL Draft.
• And I would be remiss if I didn’t point you in the direction of Chris Allen’s FANTASTIC review of the 2015 NFL Draft and what has become of the names. Remember David Johnson??? It’s an awesome trip down memory lane.

On to the Midwest! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!

WHO’S THE FAVORITE IN THE NL CENTRAL?

Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading…

📈 My partner in crime, Gene Clemons, has his pre-Combine NFL Draft stock watch. There’s an interesting RB name trending up!!

❤️ Speaking of Kurland, I absolutely love his positional eligibility tracker.

🐇 🥛 ICYMI: Peeps flavored milk.

💰 Nobody knows the vintage card market like Michael Salfino. This is a great story on the underrated search for centering.

💸 More card news: WNBA boxes are selling for more than NBA boxes. Caitlin Clark Effect.

📺 Second-year fantasy football breakouts video!

⚾🍺 MLB Team Preview: Milwaukee Brewers ⚾🍺

Milwaukee may have closed out 2024 with 93 wins and a 10-game lead on the division but I wouldn’t hold my breath for a repeat. The Brew Crew took advantage of a weak field in the National League Central, one that’s improved as the Brewers jettisoned star players Willy Adames and Devin Williams without comparable replacements. Not to mention the rotation got somewhat lucky last year — the majority finishing with a sub-3.70 ERA despite none posting a FIP below 4.00 or WHIP below 1.20. 

Sportsbooks currently appear to share my sentiment, for what it's worth, placing MIL’s current baseline win total down nine games to Over 83.5. Don’t blame me, I’ve been clear in making my case for the Cubbies in 2025.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

• Jackson Chourio, RF : .270 / 81 / 81 / 20 / 25
• Christian Yelich, DH : .263 / 70 / 62 / 15 / 21
• William Contreras, C: .264 / 75 / 89 / 24 / 5
• Garrett Mitchell, CF: .227 / 54 / 43 / 11 / 20
• Rhys Hoskins, 1B: .216 / 59 / 77 / 23 / 3
• Sal Frelick, LF: .246 / 48 / 40 / 5 / 13
• Brice Turang, 2B: .243 / 65 / 46 / 6 / 34
• Joey Ortiz, SS: .244 / 62 / 58 / 12 / 12
• Oliver Dunn, 3B: .213 / 25 / 24 / 5 / 5

Hitting Overview: My favorite unintended running theme of this team preview series must be identifying that particular front office’s type. As a big spreadsheet guy and overall data honk, I’m surprised this macro perspective managed to get by me.

But before we square that way, the first thing intuitively jumping off the page is the top-heavy nature of the lineup in American Family Field (I still miss calling it Miller Park). 

Leadoff man Jackson Chourio broke out in magnificent fashion last year and William Contreras ranks among the very best backstops in the game today. Former MVP Christian Yelich finds himself sandwiched between those two bright young stars to cap off a rather dangerous top third, each projecting to bat at least .263 with a minimum 29 HR + SB. Not too shabby if you’re looking to strike fear into opposing starters taking the hill in the first inning.

That said, Milwaukee goes off a major cliff immediately after Contreras. General Manager Matt Arnold tried to patch the backend of this order with Rhys Hoskins and a handful of late bloomers who all need to take a step forward to finish in the top half of the Central in 2025. For reference, the final six hitters combined for just 55 homers in 2024, and outside of Garrett Mitchell, not a single one finished with an OPS north of .725. Why? The Brewers posted the third-highest groundball rate in MLB while ranking 29th in line drives. I’m worried for Brewers faithful; their run atop the NLC has come to an end.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

• Freddy Peralta, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tobias Myers, RHP:⭐⭐
• Nestor Cortes, LHP:⭐⭐
• Aaron Civale, RHP:⭐⭐
• Aaron Ashby, LHP:⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: If the rotation comes off as overly encouraging at a glance, I fear my new star rating system finally failed me—I’ve never needed a half-star emoji more than right now. Up top, Freddy Peralta’s excellent but also has his flaws. Missing your spots (39.1% Ball) and working up in the zone can lead to walks (9.2% BB) plus homers (1.4 HR/9). In other words, the fastest pathway to an early shower. These flaws also manifest in a lack of distance, reflected in the game log—Peralta completed +6 IP just twelve times in 2024. Not great from your ace.

Outside of Freddy P, it’s a hodgepodge of health concerns and low strikeout rates with way too many flyballs. Free agent Nestor Cortes finished the regular season on the IL with a dreaded flexor strain in his throwing arm—the precursor to Tommy John for the non-medical students out there. Milwaukee’s also relying on impactful innings from Aaron Ashby, who’s averaging roughly ~84 IP per season (minors included) since 2018 due to a litany of shoulder injuries. The chances these guys combine for 33 GS, let alone 33 each get slimmer as my analysis deepens. 

Even in the best-case scenario, this rotation’s middling and going to struggle with distance—especially against the tougher lineups.

JACKSON CHOURIO’S NL MVP ODDS

⚾👬 MLB Team Preview: Minnesota Twins ⚾👬

Minnesota concluded last season 10.5 games behind division-winning Cleveland with 82 wins, just a game over .500, good for fourth place in the Central. The band’s mostly back for 2025 but therein lies the rub. Despite our proven inability to predict injuries in sports, you can’t simply handwave some of these longstanding track records as meaningless. Few teams possess a wider potential range of outcomes than the Twinkies, who at full strength could stand toe-to-toe with the very best MLB has to offer.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

• Willi Castro, DH: .244 / 69 / 51 / 12 / 19
• Carlos Correa, SS: .266 / 63 / 64 / 18 / 0
• Trevor Larnach, LF: .247 / 59 / 58 / 17 / 3
• Byron Buxton, CF: .243 / 61 / 61 / 22 / 8
• Royce Lewis, 3B: .248 / 62 / 64 / 21 / 7
• Matt Wallner, RF: .221 / 63 / 65 / 23 / 3
• Ryan Jeffers, C: .233 / 48 / 50 / 17 / 2
• Ty France, 1B: .252 / 36 / 38 / 9 / 0
• Brooks Lee, 2B: .242 / 43 / 43 / 8 / 3

Hitting Overview: My surface analysis of the offense is bound to come off wrong to someone but I’ll do my best to clean up the resulting mess. This offense looks like it was built by a child playing a video game with zero regard for projected playing time (ducks). Before you launch your Juicy Lucy at me (yes, I researched iconic local dishes) let’s be serious. In that entire lineup, just Willi Castro eclipsed 600 PA in 2024. Ok, so what if we drop that parameter to 500 PA? Well, you’d add just a single player in free agent Ty France, who’s coming off a rotten and often demotable .630 OPS. Yikes.

When I say this batting order appears to have been built by a kid, it’s not without a compliment tucked in there. Minnesota’s got talent pouring out of the little holes in their helmets when assembled at full strength. Dreaming on the ceiling case for Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis couldn’t be simpler—big-time power reflected in double-digit barrel rates with maximum exit velocities north of 114 mph. The problem? Of those three players, there’s just a single 400-plus PA season in two years between them.

No way around it—like Frodo to the Ring Of Power, Minnesota’s fate is tied to games played by their starting nine. 

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

• Pablo López, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Joe Ryan, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Bailey Ober, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP:⭐⭐⭐
• Chris Paddack, RHP:⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: Any grounded optimism for this upcoming season in the Twin Cities revolves around the strength of this starting rotation. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober comprise a three-headed monster that could feasibly get listed as a nightly moneyline favorite versus just about anyone. For reference, all three posted a sub-3.60 SIERA, +20.0% K-BB, +13.5% Swinging Strike, and sub-6.0% BB in 2024. Look out when the Twins’ horses pop up on your favorite team’s schedule. 

The backend of the rotation’s currently comprised of former top prospects Simeon Woods-Richardson and “The Sheriff” Chris Paddack, each of whom could turn in a nice season if healthy — but that’s the thing. They don’t need to. For me, one of the most important things in season-long projections centers around pitching depth, and Minnesota’s once again near the top. Waiting in the wings to pick up any available starts is a crop of exciting talented arms who already showed flashes in David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Louie Varland. Every team realistically needs at least six game-ready SPs to start a season, so I’d say MIN has that part pretty well covered.

Come the dog days of Summer, expect to see some (if not all) of these youngsters take the pill in big spots.

CAN PABLO LOPEZ WIN THE AL CY YOUNG?

🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets (Or Not)🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do.

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability — you can’t make any money if your account’s at $0.

THE BET: NO BET (Sorry, but it’s worth it in the long run)

In what I hope’s not a major disappointment as far as conclusions go, I don’t have it in me to recommend any wagers I won’t take on personally. Yes, I bet and yes, I care deeply about helping people avoid the pitfalls of sports betting.

So, instead of a futures bet, would you settle for a few crucial lessons instead?

The first one is something we cover every so often here in the newsletter—to not bet is better than a bad bet.. and we can quantify it.

A bettor that starts with $100, for example, and loses 10% is left with $90. However, if that person turns around and wins 10% back, that’s only a $9 hit or a total of $99 in the old betting account. Therefore, you technically need to win 11% for every 10% you lose—hence the importance of discipline before clicking that green bet button.

Well, we’ve covered that in the past and no one likes repetition—so there’s one more nugget I’d like to leave you with, and it has to do with due diligence. 

Maybe it’s an operational error or perhaps it’s malice — that part I’m unsure of. One thing I can tell you for certain is sometimes the same bet appears through the same provider but at different prices. And that’s precisely the case with the Twins’ win totals. Look at the image below and tell me what you see.

Yes, that would be the same exact bet—Twins over 85 wins. Except on one page, it’s priced at (-120) or a 54.6% implied probability while on the very next page, it’s listed at (-130) or a 55.6% implied probability.

One bet profits $83.33 per $100 wagered and the other just $76.92. The point being, keep your head on a swivel and make sure you’ve been thorough in your research before pulling the trigger.

Did that make up for my massive letdown? I sure hope so because I can’t find the cojones to pull the trigger on either team’s futures.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

WE HAVE NFL FUTURES, TOO