In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
This one comes from a reader (I love the feedback, keep it coming!). It’s a quickie, but still an eye-opener. I couldn’t find a live example this morning, so you’ll have to take my word for it—but I promise it happens constantly.
We’ve covered how not all bases are created equal when it comes to prop betting MLB. Four walks and four runs in one game? You’re still a loser with zero bases.
You’ll only encounter this twin paradox for backend hitters with low projections, but hey, they matter, too! In a case you’re betting on a hitter whose total base prop sits at +0.5, make sure to double check the total hits tab as well. When it comes to +0.5 total bases (unlike 1.5), it’s an identical bet to +0.5 base hits—yet oftentimes the hit prop has a better price. Go figure.
Imagine paying a 5% lower price for the same item at the store because it was in a different aisle. No wonder my mama told me I better shop around … shop, shop around.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Give ‘Em The Heater
The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Here’s To You, Mr. Robinson
If you’re following daily (thanks!) you know we are already positioning against this atrocious Washington defense. I figured, hey, one good turn deserves another. I mean if we’re going to get over 21 points, someone’s got to do something on offense, right?
I mentioned this the other day but just how comically bad the Commanders’ defense has played bears repeating—they’re 31st or worse in…
Points Allowed Per Game (37.0)
Defensive EPA/Play (-0.28)
Average Drive Distance (44.8 yards)
Time Of Possession Per Drive (3:44)
Opponent’s Drive Success Rate (77.8%)
Defensive EPA/Dropback (-0.76)
Opposing Passer Rating (146.4)
Completion Percentage Allowed (80.0%)
Passing Yards Per Game (280.0)
+20-Yard Completions Allowed (4)
Passing TDs (4)
Surprising to absolutely no one, Washington’s also 31st or worst when it comes to defending the slot this season—both in defensive EPA and total receptions allowed (below).
Keeping that in mind, I’d like to focus on the front end of the secondary. Washington sacrifices catches underneath (image, right) to avoid the long ball and that’s right where we’ll be waiting. Give me Wan’Dale Robinson, the lone bright spot in the NYG offense last week during that shellacking by New Orleans. He spent all game either crossing or sitting down in front of Jones (image, left) and I’m expecting an encore.
So why is Robinson’s reception prop set at only 44% implied probability (+125)? I’m not sure, he’s coming off 6 grabs on a dozen looks in a clunker, while averaging 7.5 targets and 5.0 catches across his last 6 games played with Daniel Jones. For what it’s worth, the Giants also got their corn creamed Week 1 last season, 40-0, by Dallas, but do you remember Week 2? That’s right, Danny Dimes went NUCLEAR (321-2-1, 9-59-1) against a bad Arizona defense.
Sound familiar? And it’s plus money? Let’s ride…
THE BET: Wan’Dale Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)
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Forgive the brevity as I let the charts do the talking on this one. We’re going back to the well on Angels rookie Samuel Aldegheri. If you missed our initial go-around, first off, lucky you. We lost by the hook because his loving teammates kicked the ball all over, resulting in five unearned first-inning runs. Anyway, Aldegheri has the goods—you can check out last week’s breakdown here.
Strange that books actually lowered his prop after a brilliant 7-K outing at Texas last time out, bringing Aldegheri’s run of games started over four strikeouts to 14 of 15.
Not that I care who the matchup is whatsoever, but the line piqued my interest so much I needed to see it for myself. Let’s say I was underwhelmed—left-handed starters have eclipsed +4Ks 8 of the last 13 matchups.
So why is this line at O4.5 (-105)? I have no clue honestly but I’m not waiting for it to jump.
THE BET: Samuel Aldegheri Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
You can search for MLB Player Props for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Finder!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
The College Football Week 3 Pregame Show featuring Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton is live Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
If you’re playing NFL Survivor, John Laghezza and Coach Gene Clemons have the intel to help you tackle Week 3.
Matthew Freedman cranked out the Week 2 NFL Prop Bets, featuring Dak, Najee, and more.
Can you trust Zack Moss again? Geoff Ulrich delivers the Week 2 Anytime TD Bets.
UFC 306 is headlined by O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili, and Mark Drumheller punches up his Best Bets for Noche UFC.
