In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Another manic Monday, coming off a brutal weekend in the betting streets. Waves of losses are expected after running off 15 straight wins like we did but I’m telling you—even after years, it never gets any easier. Of course, I (and hopefully we) couldn’t possibly care less because I (and hopefully we) are so strictly managed in terms of risk management.
It reminds me of a great tip from my derivative days whenever a trader struggled with how much money to risk. “Lower the amount until losses are met with shoulder shrugs.” Removing fear of loss will provide immediate clarity in future execution.
And how did I almost forget the sour cherry on yesterday’s loss-flavored sundae? RIP my last remaining Survivor tourney … ugh. Your faithful narrator picked the Commanders, who needless to say, took us on a wild ride. An early lead is ceded to multiple errors in the kicking game (missed FG, missed XP) that would eventually culminate in one of the greatest kickoff returns certainly of the new-rule era, and perhaps ever.
Knowingly or not, the entire Laghezza family received harsh instruction on the nature of sports betting. Promise you, there are hardly words for just how berserk everyone went for the Terry McLaurin TD to pull within one point at the whistle. We joked about Washington missing another kick—maybe I shouldn’t have put it in the universe.
Wasn’t all bad though … Looks like my new passing-yard projection model is onto something. Hitting 100x is pretty good, last I checked.
Monday Night Football Preview, Ravens (7-4) at Chargers (7-3): You’ve heard the famous fight adage, and it couldn’t be more applicable. Styles make fights. My apologies for forgetting which of my favorite pundits said it this week but it’s the perfect descriptor for tonight’s game. Sure, both teams have 7 wins, currently sit second in their respective divisions, and boast positive net-point differentials. The similarities end there. Oh, except they’re both managed by members of the Harbaugh family. For reference, big brother John has yet to lose to Jim in either their two prior clashes—one of them being in Super Bowl XLVII. Will tonight be different or does little bro finally get revenge on national television?
Baltimore’s messed with fans’ blood pressure all season, strapping their fans to a rollercoaster of emotions. Losing two straight out of the gate started the head-scratching, especially after falling to the Raiders. Ew. Then, Lamar Jackson woke up and the Ravens rattled off five in a row, averaging 35 points/game in the process. Impressive stuff for sure. Disappointing divisional losses to CLE and PIT bookend statement wins versus DEN and CLE. Now here we are.
BAL’s explosive backfield tandem of Derrick Henry and Lamar must be among the most intimidating in history. Talk about thunder and lightning, jeez. John Harbuagh’s squad leads the AFC in scoring and the entire NFL in EPA/play, yards/game, and yards/play. Plus, Lamar’s easily posting his best passing season to date, setting career highs thus far in EPA/attempt, completion rate, passing yards/game, passer rating, yards/attempt, and INT rate. Pretty impressive from the former MVP. So what’s the issue? Defensive issues, particularly in the secondary, keep even the worst teams in the contest—something that won’t play come the postseason.
In the other boy’s bedroom sits Los Angeles’ head coach, plotting his first Harbaugh Bowl win in a great spot to get it. I’ve been on a personal Charger apology tour all season. Note to self—stop short-selling the value of great coaching plus top-flight arm talent at quarterback. I mistakenly took the roster on its face without proper anticipation. Not to mention Greg Roman was doing offseason pressers talking nonstop about a run-heavy approach, essentially getting us ready to transport back to 1950. Like any great coach, Jim established their obvious strengths (run game, defense) while cultivating growth in their weaker aspects of play (passing game). As the season progresses, it’s not just the increased pass rate impressing me, but the specifically carved-out roles on offense that allow Justin Herbert to elevate the skill-position players around him.
To me, the cart’s in front of the horse in terms of scoring expectations with a +50-point total. I’m not seeing it. LEAN: BAL/LAC u50.5
Hope you enjoyed this weekend’s Betting Life newsletter, featuring the NFL Blitz! I’ll be back Wednesday with every Week 13 team total and our weekly EPA snapshot. Catch me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- New York Prop Exchange: New Dissly Track
- Running Against The Wind: Bustin’ Herbert
- Sharp Hunter: Where are the Sharps leaning on MNF?
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
📺 It’s getting toward the end, so Claudia and Thor break down the Week 14 Early College Football Betting Lines.
👀 The Week 12 Instant NFL Recap with Ian and Dwain makes sense of some of the Sunday craziness. Is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine now a thing?
🚀 Is Justin Herbert set to go off tonight? Check out the Monday Night Football Player Props.
🧨 Will Ravens-Chargers be an explosion of points? LaMarca breaks down the Monday Night Football Harbaugh Bowl.
🦃 Ready to jump on the Cowboys on Turkey Day? LaMarca identifies some Early Week 13 Betting Odds.
New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—New Dissly Track
THE BET: Will Dissly Over 4.5 Receptions (+118) FanDuel
I left off alluding to a critical evolution of the Chargers offense. It’s tangible and a great case in point against season-long stats at times. On paper, they’re not a passing team. The Bolts sit bottom-3 in dropbacks, attempts, and completions per game. However, as you wonderful readers already know, analyzing and understanding the NFL is a game of context. Through the first six weeks, LAC eclipsed a 57% pass rate exactly zero times. In the five games since, it’s only dipped below 61% once. That’s a horse of a different color.
I refuse to go for the stupid “not on my bingo card” reference but trust me when I tell you I would’ve never bet this in a million years. Since Week 7, the new-and-improved Chargers passing attack has been nothing short of … excellent. Really?
- 256.4 Passing Yards Per Game: 5th
- 9.0 Yards Per Attempt: 3rd
- 14.3 Yards/Completion: 1st
- 9.4 Air Yards Per Attempt: 4th
- 25 +20-Yard Catches: 2nd
- 5.6 Yards After Contact Per Reception: 5th
- 14.5% Explosive Catch Rate: 5th
I briefly mentioned Baltimore’s struggles defending the pass, but it’s more nuanced than that. No one runs on the Ravens. They lead the NFL in EPA/rush, yards/game, yards/rush, yards after contact/rush, and explosive rush rate. If that wasn’t enough to inspire quitting itself, the high-flying offense constantly pushes game scripts toward the negative. That’s to say we need to remove any stats prone to being compiled like total passing yards allowed off the table. The issue is the Ravens have allowed the second-most deep completions and passing TDs this season. There’s no spot in the game plan for that—Baltimore is a pronounced pass funnel any way you slice it.
I imagine big brother John is going to do whatever he can to scheme against the deep ball, opening room underneath over the middle. Give me Will Dissly to fill that void. Don’t look now, the free agent tight end worked his way into the second option of the Chargers pass attack. Since their Week 6 bye, Dissly is leading the team in target/route rate, tied with WR1 Ladd McConkey in catches, and only one target shy of the team lead.
The Ravens already surrender the third-most catches to tight ends in the league. I don't think that trend stops tonight, given Dissly’s increased presence as a focal point within the offense (image above).
Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽♂️🏈—Bustin’ Herbert
THE BET: Justin Herbert Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110) DraftKings
Somewhere in today’s missive, I spoke about the dangers of large sample sizes. And they certainly mislead at times. Well, that door swings both ways. Focusing on smaller data sets comes with its own obvious shortsighted pitfalls—and I think we have a case of that tonight.
Justin Herbert’s rush prop climbed from the single digits to over twenty (!) in just the last few weeks alone. Granted, he’s run for +32 yards in three of the last four games. However, it’s not like we’ve seen some massive stylistic change toward being a dual-threat QB. His scramble rate, takeoffs per game, and rushing yards/game (image below) are all either in-line or lower than last season. It just so happens that three of Herbert’s eight longest career runs stacked up this month. In fact, even after the recent “breakout”, his 4.4 yards/carry is exactly the same as 2023.
Lastly, Baltimore’s ability to stop the run extends beyond halfbacks. The linebacker unit’s great at staying home to clog running lines, with the necessary closing speed to thwart bouncing it outside. Tonight’s prop line is 22 yards on the ground. Huh? For added perspective, Josh Allen failed to get there Week 4 and Jayden Daniels barely cleared that bar by a hook Week 6.
Come on… as far as pure running/scrambling ability, one of these things is not like the other. One of these things just doesn’t belong. Even our in-house experts agree Herbert does not eclipse +20 yards! What better way to get off the schneid?
Sharps Show Brotherly Love to Harbaugh Bowl
Source: Sharp Hunter
It’s the Harbaugh Bowl.
Are we calling it that?
I have no idea.
But we have a good one—at least on paper—to cap off Week 12 in the NFL with the Ravens traveling west to face the Chargers in a battle of the Harbaugh Brothers in prime time.
At Sharp Hunter, we look at thousands of sharp bets across the sports betting landscape … whether the coaches are brothers or not.
As of Sunday night, the Ravens find themselves a 2.5-point road favorite in a game with a total of 50.5. And it looks like the sharps at Sharp Hunter like the road favorite, as we show a Two-Bag Sharp Score on the Ravens.
I’m loading up to bet with the sharps on the road favorite here.
And when I look at the numbers, I see an LAC defense that is supposed to be pretty good. But my eyes just watched Joe Burrow carve up this group and I don’t see any reason why Lamar Jackson won’t do the same thing.
The Chargers’ defense is 31st in DVOA ranking against No. 2 WRs—I think Rashod Bateman and Diontae Johnson can have big games here. Jackson has a full set of receivers for this spot Monday night. He can make a case to close out the MVP race with a huge game.
And Jackson is so good in these spots—25-6 ATS in his career in the regular season as a favorite of 3 or fewer points.
Maybe I’m being stubborn, but I have not bought into the LAC hype this year. At less than an FG, I’m betting the Ravens here. And so are the sharps we track at Sharp Hunter.
