Jayden Daniels' Steely Test Tops Week 10 Early Betting Slate
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Sunday NFL Blitz Preview, Part I: Each Friday, I crack open my very worn and beaten binder to share some personal hand notes and help you finalize your prep on the early slate (and make sure to check in again on Sunday morning for the back half of the schedule).
Giants (2-7) at Panthers (2-7): What could possibly be more exhilarating, worthy of shooting out of bed at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast than Giants versus Panthers? Woohoo! Jokes aside, the turn-off isn’t even necessarily the four combined wins—both the Bengals and Jets sport losing records but I’d pay to see them play. Nothing is more frustrating than watching the tree of bad decisions spawn rotten fruit and we’re getting that in spades early Sunday morning. My main focus (other than deciding why the snooze button isn’t the answer) lies with Daniel Jones and whether or not there’s a future here. Big Blue needs to mop the floor with the Panthers for all intents and purposes, because if they lose Danny Dimes may get left in Germany.
49ers (4-4) at Bucs (4-5): With the return of 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey looming, Injury news dominates my bullet points—the top one reading “Wonder what the spread would be with a healthy Mike Evans and Chris Godwin?” Tampa managed to keep it together on offense without its dynamic duo versus the Falcons’ sketchy D, but unsurprisingly turned into a pumpkin against the Chiefs. San Fran will provide another difficult obstacle, conversely experiencing rare good injury luck and returning players on both sides of the ball. Far be it from me to question Vegas’ omnipotence, but 6.5 points feels low so I’ll be watching for anything positive from TB to justify it. For the record, I'm assuming a full workload from CMC—I can’t envision a scenario where the 49ers rush the precious back before he’s 100%.
Falcons (6-3) at Saints (2-7): We may have never seen a more swift and decisive fall from grace than the 2024 Saints. Once (2-0) with a +62 point differential, New Orleans turned around to lose seven straight, and with that its best player in Chris Olave. It’s essentially a wrap for the spiraling Saints, who Atlanta must handle to prove their playoff chops.
Broncos (5-4) at Chiefs (8-0): The worry-free Chiefs, undefeated through eight, are starting to feel inevitable—as if they snapped a missing stone into their gauntlet with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Averaging +28 points/game since the bye, all Patrick Mahomes needed was pass catchers in the right spot and he’ll take it from there. Even if it gets delivered upside-down or side-armed. Despite a strong W/L record worthy of praise, Denver has somewhat predictably failed against serious defenses. Bo Nix’s Broncos averaged just 10 points/game on -0.19 EPA/play (!) against PIT, NYJ, LAC, and BAL. I’m rightfully terrified Chris Jones and those boys eat up DEN, which lacks explosives throughout.
Bills (7-2) at Colts (4-5): All eyes on Buffalo’s injury report for updates on Amari Cooper (wrist, LP) and Keon Coleman (wrist, DNP). Just as the Bills prepared for launch, their bud got nipped. As much as I like this offense, we’ve seen the obvious limitations without clearly defined roles in BUF’s WR room. As far as Indy goes, there’s just a big question mark next to Joe Flacco’s name in my binder. Aside from Michael Pittman (back, DNP), the Colts are healthy but sit under .500 while still 4-point underdogs at home. Isn’t this the perfect time to get Anthony Richardson meaningful (and desperately needed) reps at game speed? I guess I’m watching to see what Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter have up their sleeve as the season slips away.
Steelers (6-2) at Commanders (7-2): Titled “Where did I go wrong?” in my notebook, PIT/WAS making my must-watch list in Week 10 stands with my biggest preseason whiffs. Pittsburgh’s doing Pittsburgh things—running the ball effectively to force extra defenders into the box with play-action deep shots keyed up on the backend. Washington as a top-3 scoring unit through nine wouldn’t have made my bet ticket with your money this summer. Luckily, I’m not a stubborn mule, and able to realize they’re 100% the Real Deal Holyfield. If anything, there’s growth happening in WAS, one of the league’s most exciting stories. The thing I’ve had the hairy eyeball fixated on (and our oldest readers know this) is the Commanders’ defense, which has shown the ability to neutralize poor offenses. I’m curious to see if Mr. Unlimited poses a decent enough threat to assess this one in its wake.
Hope you enjoyed the part one of the Week 10 NFL Sunday Blitz … and oh yeah, we’ve hit an unbelievable 14 straight NFL bets WOW!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: You Got A Purdy Mouth
- The New York Prop Exchange: On The Hunt (Again)
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—You Got A Purdy Mouth
Passions collide when I get to bet against this leaky Tampa secondary and the Niners to make big plays at the same time. Theory of the case couldn’t be simpler. San Fran’s team total sits at 28 so maybe it’s no state secret, but they’re healthy and we’ve collectively forgotten how ridiculously good this offense is. Similar to the argument I’ve made for Buffalo in adding Amari Cooper, who impacts more than talent level—it’s the reverberating effect down the line. Same goes for McCaffrey but a million times over. Hardest part is deciding where any edge remained in gaining exposure to San Fran.
With so many sheep in the flock who could conceivably produce a ceiling game (McCaffThe hardestrey, Samuel, Kittle), we want the shepherd—especially against the league’s third-worst pass defense by yardage (image below).
Brock Purdy’s doing his thing, operating efficiently within Shanahan’s system to the tune of a very quiet 8.7 yards/attempt on the year (and that’s not at full strength, people). Mr. Irrelevant is averaging +262 passing yards/game, higher than this weekend’s bar despite some pretty brutal defensive metrics from TB the last month
- -0.23 EPA/Dropback: T-29th
- 120.9 Opposer Passer Rating: 31st
- 71.1% Completion Rate Allowed: 28th
- 14 +20-yard completions: T-27th
- -0.41 Defensive EPA/Play On 3rd Down: 31st
Team totals lie up and conditions are perfect for an afternoon delight in the Niners’ first game with CMC back in the fold—you just know they’ll be looking to put a red-and-gold stamp on it.
THE BET: Brock Purdy Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-110) DraftKings
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Catch Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton on the Week 11 College Football Pregame Show, Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
❤️ You haven’t seen it all until you’ve read Week 10 Love/Hate.
🪜 Ladder Tyrone Tracy TDs? Week 10 Anytime TD Scorers has that and more.
🔮 Ulrich pinch-hits on the Week 10 NFL Player Props.
💰Where is the money going in Week 11 College Football Bets?
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—On The Hunt (Again)
Don’t take the brevity for a lack of caring or analysis, but I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. Just this Monday, we laid out the case for Kareem Hunt’s role within Andy Reid’s system as a gold mine for carries. The result? A resounding win, as Hunt sailed over by 9 carries! And how did the books respond to one of the only monopolized backfield roles developing before our eyes? Well, they raised the bar … by a single carry.
I’m sorry, I don’t get it.
Meanwhile, my argument has only strengthened. If we discount Hunt’s first game back after getting signed off the street (16 touches regardless), the utilization metrics since Week 6 are screaming bellcow:
97 Rushes (2nd behind Derrick Henry!)
24.3 Rushes Per Game (2.3 more than Kyren Williams!)
Kansas City’s a perpetual TD favorite and its particular style of frequently sustained drives lends itself to racking up tons of carries (image below).
So why is this line so low? Why do our projections wizards agree? I DON’T KNOW! It’s funny really, Hunt’s high success rate without a single +20-yard run sets him up perfectly to go over 20 carries for the fifth straight time—Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes don’t seem to trust anyone else with the ball.
THE BET: Kareem Hunt Over 18.5 Carries (-120) FanDuel
