Week 3 Thursday Night Football sees us get an AFC East matchup between two teams with 1-1 records. The fact one of those teams is the Patriots is a bit of a shock, especially considering they were one OT period away from potentially entering this game 2-0.

The Patriots have relied on hard running from Rhamondre Stevenson, who has taken 46 carries through two games. Former Commander Antonio Gibson has also run the ball well, taking 18 carries thus far for 114 yards and 6.33 yards per carry (ypc).

The Jets got pummeled in Week 1 by the 49ers but looked more competent in Week 2 against Tennessee as Aaron Rodgers threw two TDs (both to an RB) in the 24-17 win. Both of these teams are coming in off hard-fought Week 2 games and for the Jets, this Thursday Night game will mark their home opener after two straight road starts.

So who has the edge in this short-week matchup? Let’s dive in and see where the Jets vs. Patriots best bets and player props lie.

Betting Breakdown - Jets vs. Patriots

  • Spread: Jets -6.5 (-112; DraftKings)
  • Total: 38.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Injury notes: 

As you can see, this has become a very tough spot for the Patriots on short rest. They lost their defensive captain, LB Ja'Whaun Bentley, last week with a torn pectoral muscle and have two starters already deemed as out for the game on their O-Line, with starting C David Andrews and RT Mike Onwenu also listed as questionable.

The Jets are still without Jermaine Johnson and Haason Reddick (contract) on defense, which stifles their pass rush to a degree. However, they did manage to take down Will Levis four times last week and seem likely to get their shots here against Jacoby Brissett.

Either way, with Breece Hall now practicing in full after getting somewhat banged up last week, the injury report clearly favorous New York

Spread and Total

The spread for this game opened at 7.0 but fell to 6.5 after the Patriots played Seattle close and the Jets needed to stall a late drive to hold on against Tennessee. The line has moved down to 6.0 at some places, so even with the Patriots injury situation getting quite severe, the market likes New England’s chances of being able to move the ball on the ground and keep this game somewhat close. 

I added the Jets as an early-week teaser play in our Bet Tracker (where you can find all of my free NFL bets) when the line opened at 7.0, moving them through the key numbers of 7-4-3 to get them down to Jets -1.0, and combined them with the Chargers +8.5 (moved up form 2.5).

I don’t like teasing them as much at 6.0, but I do think the Jets are still the side in this game. Teams aren’t going to just ignore the fact that New England isn’t making explosive plays, outside of handoffs, and should start overcompensating to stop the run, which is going to leave Jacoby Brissett exposed.

As mentioned previously, the Jets pass rush was quite good last week and could be in a spot to take over this game if they can stuff the Patriots run early. With a teaser play on New York already made I'm passing on the spread but would lean Jets at -6.0.

The total is more appealing. We have the under on 38.5 points as a play with a significant edge in our NFL Betting Model and given the optics of this game, the play makes a lot of sense. The Patriots are a team who are likely to skew towards a run-heavy scheme, regardless of score, while the Jets have a 40+ year-old QB coming in off short rest.

If the Jets get to Brissett early they could land enough points to get this into the 40s but New York has also had issues stopping the run, so that’s far from a given. A close, low-scoring game seems the most likely scenario making the under a solid play. 

Best Bets for Jets vs. Patriots

Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 receptions (+105; bet365)

I like this spot for Wilson against a sub-par New England secondary. The Patriots allowed 27 receptions to opposing WRs last week with Jaxon Smith-Njigba hauling in 12 catches. Wilson is the clear number one target who has a 30% target share over the first two games, and it’s not to see him not breaking out in this spot.

I took this bet earlier in the week when the line was +105, but would still look to play Wilson at a slightly lesser number or consider a SGP play on his yards and receptions over.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions (-155; bet365)

This was bet filed in our Free NFL Bet Tracker by Adam Ronis early in the week and I think it makes plenty of sense from a lot of angles. The Jets should be ready for a heavy dose of Stevenson and will likely force the Patriots to get creative in how they use him, potentially forcing him to be used more as a receiver than he was last week.

Per the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, Stevenson already has a solid 16% target share and 67% route rate on the year making him a very viable over target at these levels. The Jets just allowed the Titans starting RB Tony Pollard to post a 5-reception, 40-yard line as a receiver against them last week and Stevenson, who is a very solid receiver himself, seems likely to challenge for a similar type of line.

Laddering Stevenson’s receiving props makes sense in this spot as well. 

TNF PrizePicks Plays for Jets vs. Patriots

I like the correlation between a “More Than” for Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards and a “Lower Than” on Breece Hall’s rushing yards, who is facing a Patriots rush defense that has looked solid through two weeks.

I also think this is a spot where the Jets defense, who got decent pressure last week, will force Jacoby Brissett to use his legs more than he did against the Seahawks. Brissett’s rushing attempts projection on Fantasy Life is set at 3.7 this week so there is also a solid edge to the over on the 3.0 total.

The lines on some of these plays have moved at other sites but you can still get Brissett at 3.0 rush attempts and Hall at 63.5 rush yards, as of writing, on PrizePicks, which are solid numbers.