In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:

NFL Blitz Preview, Part I: Each Friday, I crack open my marble notebook to share exactly what I’m watching for each Sunday, with the first half of my very own Week 9 hand notes to help you finalize your prep.

Commanders (6-2) at Giants (2-6): Same division yet totally different outlooks, expectations, and beliefs in their QB going forward. Washington’s Jayden Daniels continues to make his mark on the league—vaulting himself from conversations over whether he can handle the game’s speed to keep playing this well, to becoming the heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year … and finally ending at borderline superhero. Daniels went from a possible OUT last weekend to over 375 combined yards in a monumental comeback win. All that said and it’s the Commander defense I’m watching for, who’s performed as a top-5 unit this month. I’m surprised the Vegas line is only at 4.

Chargers (4-3) at Browns (2-6): Something’s gotta give when the diametrically opposed Bolts head to Cleveland to face the Browns. It’s Jim Harbaugh’s slow-churned plain vanilla versus Jameis Winston’s extra chunky rocky road. Call me crazy but if Winston’s the rising tide, maybe Cleveland's the ship. Kevin Stefanski’s entire team just rose to the occasion in a huge upset over a current Super Bowl favorite. If their defense becomes reminiscent of the 2023 unit (not too crazy), this Browns squad could be a wagon going forward—I’m surprised to see the Browns get points at home in this one.

Dolphins (2-5) at Bills (6-2): What’s better than a 1 p.m. division rivalry with two teams at peak powers? I know the Dolphins lost to Arizona last week, but they did score 27 and I’m staying bullish on the Fins. Mike McDaniel’s offense operates almost exclusively on timing and placement so a bit of slack is deserved given the weekly upside. MIA’s defense, which I’m also relatively high on, will need to get back on track against what’s arguably the best offense in the NFL. Yes, Amari Cooper adds an actual star to the lineup, but for me, it’s much more—getting airdropped next to Josh Allen as a true X-type wideout allows all their other weapons down the line to fit perfectly in their intended place.

Cowboys (3-4) at Falcons (5-3): What to watch for couldn’t be simpler for Dallas. It’s already written in bold atop my notebook: WHAT IN TARNATION IS GOING ON WITH THE COWBOYS? Sure, they dropped two in a row, but losing to the Lions and the 49ers is hardly embarrassing. Go back on the game log and they may just be the prototypical pretenders—beating up on CLE, NYG, and PIT while averaging a mind-blowing -18 point differential in their losses to NO, BAL, DET, and SF. Atlanta’s won four of five, looking more well-oiled on offense each week with Kirk Cousins under center, but I fear the defense is degrading. I smell a shootout.

Saints (2-6) at Panthers (1-7): Simulate to end. Please. The Saints’ season is over yet still somehow stands an order of magnitude taller than the Panthers’.  I’ll be watching to see if New Orleans can stop Bryce Young just as a sense of pride—but the fact I’m not using NO as my Survivor pick this weekend says more than I could in the time I have. Let’s just all be thankful this game’s not in prime time. 

Patriots (2-6) at Titans (1-6): If Saints/Panthers were the toilet bowl, call Patriots/Titans the mercy flush. Heavens to Betsy, how do things go so wrong so quickly for some teams? Drake Maye could return for the Pats or we’re quite literally talking about a level of unwatchability good-hearted people don’t deserve. Though Ian reminds us that watching any football is better than no football. I won’t watch the Titans offense willingly and you can’t make me. Gross times we’re living in.

Raiders (2-6) at Bengals (3-5): The 2024 Raiders make the 9,000th recent example of why teams need a serious plan at quarterback. The Raiders thinking they could scrape the barrel for backups and let them compete to “create” a QB1 borders on malpractice. They’re short on talent without the ability to play catchup, a very likely scenario against the Bengals, who are in just about as early a must-win scenario as possible by Week 9. I’m watching to see if the Bengals can stop a bad offense they should like the Raiders … because if they don’t, this isn't Joey B.’s year.

MORE WEEK 9 NFL ACTION

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Running Against The Wind
  • The New York Prop Exchange

Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽‍♂️🏈—Alvinnnnnnnnnn!

Ah, picking on the 2024 Panthers, this year’s weekly profit center. A tradition like no other. Hey, if it ain’t broke, I’m not breaking it. 

Couple of reasons I love Alvin Kamara to smash his rush prop today. For starters, the Saints should return QB Derek Carr under center. And as uninspiring as that just felt (a sigh swept over the crowd)—it’s still a far cry from the alternative. The battery of Carr and Chris Olave commands respect from any coordinator, creating more space and/or extra DBs. We didn’t get this cushion with Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener, for example, a major cause for the 33% rush success rate in the interim (45% with Carr for reference).

Then, of course, there’s Carolina itself, and its across-the-board statistical atrocities. Ejiro Evero’s defensive unit ranks 30th or worse in EPA/rush (-0.09), success rate allowed (51.9%), and surrendering over 160 yards/game on the ground. Combine that with an offense refusing to stay on the field long enough to allow proper rest—and we get a great shot to close this out while winding down the second half. 

Kamara is dominating backfield carries (image above), especially against bad defenses. Keep in mind this recent rough patch came against some of the better run-stoppers in the NFL: KC, TB, DEN, and LAC. I’m expecting a competition-based approach from the Saints similar to the first month of the season when Kamara averaged 20+ carries for 90+ yards per game.

THE BET: Alvin Kamara Over 67.5 RUSH YARDS (-120) BetMGM

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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

⏰ Set your clocks so you don’t miss Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton on the Week 10 College Football Pregame Show, Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

❤️ We can all learn something from the Week 9 Love/Hate.

🔮 Claudia and Thor get you ready on Week 10 College Football Best Bets Show.

🚀 Jayden Daniels for MVP? Freedman dives into some NFL futures.

🏈 Who are Thor’s darkhorses to make the College Football Playoff?

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Shakir’s Hips Don’t Lie

Ran long sharing my notebook so I’ll keep this one brief—a butterfly effect is created whenever a major component of an offense changes. Buffalo excelled out the gate, winning three in a row by deploying a balanced attack with Josh Allen, an absolute freak calling signals. I felt they relied too much on hero ball from Allen during that stretch, outkicking their coverage without a true No. 1 WR in the arsenal.

Sean McDermott did the right thing for the Buffalo faithful, addressing a rather obvious roster flaw despite lapping the division on the standings. I mentioned earlier the importance of Amari Cooper and how his presence creates a rippling effect down the roster, landing square pegs in square holes rather than forcing them.

The result so far? Allen’s best two games in terms of passing yards (323, 283), with the potential for growth into the NFL’s best offense—beating you any way you’re unable to defend.

Since shaking the Etch-A-Sketch with the move for Cooper, Khalil Shakir has assumed a more natural role—and perhaps most importantly, lots of short first-look reads underneath. He leads BUF in routes, targets, and catches over that span (image above). 

I won’t contradict myself and trash Miami’s D because I do think they can play— it’s just a feature and not a bug in this case. The elevated blitz rate plus a functional Dolphin offense with Tua at the helm should keep MIA competitive long enough to necessitate Allen throwing deep into the fourth. Five catches after 16 in two games? No problem.

THE BET: Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 Receptions (-120) DraftKings

Do The Projections Agree?