Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Betting Preview

Last year the Kansas City Chiefs sauntered their way to a 14-3 record and earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Each of their postseason games was decided in the final minute, but at the end of the year the probable was inevitable: Patrick Mahomes was the 2022 MVP, and Andy Reid was covered in victorious Gatorade. 

This year, the Chiefs are favored to win their third Super Bowl in six seasons. The sun rises.

In this 2023 Chiefs preview, we'll look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, along with my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets. 

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of this writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Chiefs Preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Kansas City Chiefs offseason odds

Odds as of June 10. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 10. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 Kansas City Chiefs team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 10.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 10.

General manager & head coach

• General Manager: Brett Veach
• Head Coach: Andy Reid
• Team Power Rating: +6
• Team Power Ranking: No. 1
• Coach Ranking: No. 1

Veach has worked alongside Reid since 2004, first with the Eagles (intern, assistant, scout) and now with the Chiefs (pro and college personnel analyst, co-director of player personnel, GM). In 2014, Veach flagged Mahomes as someone the organization should target, and three years later the Chiefs drafted him shortly before naming Veach GM after dismissing John Dorsey. What a man sows, he reaps.

Reid looks like a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer after winning Super Bowl LVII. In 10 years with the Chiefs, he has never had a losing record and has won fewer than 10 games just once. With Mahomes as his starter, Reid has never won fewer than 12 games. And in 14 years with the Eagles (1999-2012), he put up a 130-93-1 record in the regular season and coach his team to five NFC championship games and one Super Bowl while proving himself to be a true offensive innovator. 

Reid’s suboptimal in-game decision making is the stuff of legend, but his wizardry as a schemer, game planner, playcaller, and evaluator and developer of talent sets him apart. Since 2018, the Chiefs are easily No. 1 in the league with a 64.8% early-down pass rate (20%-80% win probability, per RBs Don’t Matter), while the No. 2 team has a mark of just 58.5%. As an offensive mind, Reid is running circles around almost everyone.

Andy Reid coaching record

• Years: 10
• Playoffs: 9
• Division Titles: 7
• Super Bowls: 3
• Championships: 2
• Win Total Record: 9-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +2.1
• Regular Season: 117-45 (.722)
• Playoff Record: 12-7 (.632)
• Against the Spread: 96-82-3 (5.3% ROI)
• Moneyline: 129-52 (13.0% ROI)
• Over/Under: 87-92-2 (-0.5% ROI, Under)

Chiefs only. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Kansas City Chiefs offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Matt Nagy
• Offensive Playcaller: Andy Reid
• Passing Game Coordinator: Joe Bleymaier
• QBs Coach/Pass Game Analyst: David Girardi
• RBs Coach: Todd Pinkston
• WRs Coach: Connor Embree
• TEs Coach: Tom Melvin
• OL Coach: Andy Heck
• Notable Turnover: OC Eric Bieniemy (Commanders), RBs Coach Greg Lewis (Ravens)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Nagy joined Reid’s staff in 2008, working his way up through the ranks (intern, assistant, quality control coach, QBs coach, OC) before leaving in 2018 to coach the Bears. He did solid work with QB Mitch Trubisky in his first season away from Reid, but his underwhelming 2019-21 offenses led to his firing, so he returned to Kansas City to rehabilitate his career Josh McDaniels-style and now gets his second chance to coordinate the Chiefs offense after serving as senior assistant and QBs coach last year. 

He’s a logic successor to Bieniemy — but Reid will still call plays. With Nagy getting a promotion, Bleymaier in turn has been bumped up to the No. 2 spot on the offensive staff, shifting from WRs coach to passing game coordinator. He has been with the Chiefs since 2016.

Girardi replaces Nagy as the QBs coach after serving as the QBs assistant for two years and a quality control coach for three years before that. Pinkston is a former Reid WR (2000-05 Eagles) replacing another former Reid WR (Lewis) as the RBs coach. 

Embree has been with the Chiefs for four years (two as an offensive quality control coach, two as a defensive assistant), and now he fills Bleymaier’s vacated spot. Melvin has been with Reid since 1999 and has been his TEs coach since 2002. This guy has seen it all, as has Heck, who was selected in Round 1 of the 1989 draft and played tackle in the NFL for 12 years. He has been an OL coach in the league since 2006 and with Reid since 2013.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 Kansas City Chiefs defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Steve Spagnuolo
• DL Coach: Joe Cullen
• EDGEs Coach: Ken Flajole
• Run Game Coordinator/LBs Coach: Brendan Daly
• DBs Coach: Dave Merritt
• Safeties Coach: Donald D'Alesio
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Spagnuolo was plucked by Reid from NFL Europe in 1999 to join his staff on the Eagles, who he left in 2007 to coordinate the Giants. After guiding them to a legendary defense-led upset of the 18-0 Patriots, Spagnuolo eventually moved to St. Louis, where he endured three loss-filled campaigns as head coach (2009-11) before dropping down the coaching ladder. 

The long and winding road led Spagnuolo and Reid back to each other in 2019, when Spagnuolo assumed control of a defense that ranked No. 31 in yards allowed and turned it into a unit that has been acceptably average — and sometimes good — over the past four years. In 2023 he returns his entire staff.

Cullen has been a respected DL coach in the league since 2010, with the exception of the 2021 season when he coordinated the ill-fated Urban Meyer Jaguars. After that, he joined the Chiefs and helped guide their defense to 55 sacks (No. 2) last season. 

Flajole was Spagnuolo’s coordinator with the 2009-11 Rams. He joined the Chiefs in 2021 and oversaw a productive EDGE group last year. Daly is a DL coach by trade (that’s the job he had with Spagnuolo’s 2009-11 Rams), but he moved to LBs last year to make room for Cullen. He has been with the Chiefs since 2019, when he joined the team as the run game coordinator. 

Merritt worked under Spagnuolo twice on the Giants as the secondary and safeties coach (2007-08, 2015-17). He joined the Chiefs in 2019 as a clear top choice to oversee DBs. D'Alesio has been with the Chiefs since 2021 and reprises his 2022 role. Before joining the team, he was a collegiate assistant.

2023 defensive unit ranking

2023 special teams

• Asst. HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Dave Toub
• Assistant Special Teams Coordinator: Andy Hill

Toub has been with the Chiefs for the past decade. Hill has been with the team three years after spending 24 years (1996-2019) as an assistant at Missouri.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Patrick Mahomes
• Backups: Blaine Gabbert, Shane Buechele
• Borderline: Chris Oladokun
• Notable Turnover: Chad Henne (Retirement)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Mahomes is No. 1 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expected since becoming a starter in 2018 (including playoffs, per RBs Don’t Matter). By the time he retires, he might challenge QB Tom Brady in GOAT status. In Gabbert, he gets Brady’s former backup and a capable replacement for Henne. Buechele has been the team’s No. 3 QB since going undrafted in 2021. He’s not a lock to beat out the more mobile Oladokun.

Projections as of Jun 12.

Running Backs

• Starter: Isiah Pacheco
• Backups: Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Borderline: La’Mical Perine
• Notable Turnover: Ronald Jones (Cowboys), FB Michael Burton (Broncos)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Pacheco did well last year as a seventh-round early-down rookie with 3.15 yards after contact per carry. He’s likely to lead the team in carries once again — but he might’ve been a flash in the pan, and it was the veteran McKinnon who led the backfield with 635 snaps in 2022 (including playoffs). 

Even at 31 years old, McKinnon will play an important change-of-pace role this year. Edwards-Helaire’s playing time and production have decreased each season since he entered the league. The 2020 first-rounder is at risk of losing his roster spot to Perine, who can contribute on special teams. Without Burton, the Chiefs are poised to play sans fullback for the first time in the Reid era — but he saw just 71 snaps in the regular season anyway.

Projections as of June 12.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice
• WR Backups: Skyy Moore, Richie James, Justin Watson, Justyn Ross
• TE Starter: Travis Kelce
• TE Backups: Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, Blake Bell
• Notable Turnover: WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster (Patriots) & Mecole Hardman (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Valdes-Scantling is a field-stretching boom/bust No. 2 WR on a team that might lack a true No. 1 option at the position. Toney is a third-year talent-laden, injury-ridden, slot-focused playmaker whom the Chiefs cheaply acquired midseason last year. He had a 27.2% target/route rate last year (tied with Davante Adams) and a 27.0% mark as a rookie, so he has the upside to be the No. 1 receiver the Chiefs probably hoped Hardman would be — but he might lack the durability. 

Rice is a second-round rookie with decent size (6-foot-1 and 204 pounds), athleticism (4.51-second 40-yard dash), and production (96-1,355-10 receiving in 2022). With his JuJu-esque inside/outside versatility, I expect him eventually to take the No. 3 WR role from the second-year Moore, who in turn could lose slot and return work to the veteran James, who had a career year last season with 57-569-4 receiving on 70 targets with the Giants. 

Watson is a yeoman special teamer who can pinch hit as a deep-threat rotational receiver (9.3 yards per target last year). Ross had 1,000 yards receiving at Clemson in 2018 as a four-star true freshman, but he went undrafted last year and took a redshirt because of injury concerns. He’s the consummate upside developmental project.

Jan 21, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) is introduced before playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Kelce might already be the greatest receiving tight end of all time with seven consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus yards receiving. He’s a no-doubt first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Gray is a third-year fifth-rounder who played regularly last year as an inline option in heavy formations. He made the most (9.1 yards per target) with his limited opportunities (37 targets, including playoffs). Fortson is a converted wide receiver who can get downfield (8.6 yards per target), line up inline, in the slot, and out wide, and contribute on special teams. Bell is a converted quarterback who is Reid’s low-key Taysom Hill. 

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Donovan Smith, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Jawaan Taylor
• Backups: OT Lucas Niang, OT Wanya Morris, G Nick Allegretti, OL Darian Kinnard
• Borderline: C Austin Reiter, OT Prince Tega Wanogho
• Notable Turnover: LT Orlando Brown (Ravens), RT Andrew Wylie (Commanders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Smith has never earned Pro Bowl accolades, but he has started every game of his eight-year career. He’s an acceptable if unremarkable replacement for the younger, more heralded Brown. Thuney is a two-time second-team All-Pro with 112 starts since 2016. Humphrey and Smith are third-year players who both earned Week 1 starting jobs as rookies. 

Last year, Humphrey received second-team All-Pro recognition, while Smith has more than paid off his sixth-round draft capital with his run blocking (70.8 PFF grade in 2022; 78.2 in 2021). Taylor is a second-contract tackle with the long-term upside to transition to the blindside after Smith’s contract expires in 2024. He’s a likely upgrade on the jack-of-all-trades Wylie, especially as a pass-blocker (75.9 PFF grade in 2022; 72.0 in 2021).

Niang was a COVID sit-out in 2020 as a third-round rookie. He returned to football as the Week 1 RT starter in 2021, but he struggled with injuries before ultimately suffering a season-ending Week 17 patella tear. Then he missed the first half of 2022, at which point he fell behind Wylie on the depth chart. 

He’ll compete to be the team’s swing tackle with the third-round rookie Morris, a former five-star recruit with SEC experience and starts at both tackle spots. If Niang or Morris underwhelms in training camp, either could lose his spot to Wanogho, who has two years of service with the Chiefs. A 2019 seventh-rounder for the Chiefs, Allegretti has made 15 spot starts (including three in the playoffs) at guard since 2020. He’s their top interior backup followed by Kinnard, who played no offensive snaps last year as a rookie. 

A college tackle, Kinnard has moved to guard in the NFL, but he could lose his roster spot to the veteran Reiter, who started at the pivot for the Chiefs in 2019-20 and lingered on their practice squad last season.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: George Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah
• EDGE Backups: Charles Omenihu, Mike Danna, Malik Herring, Joshua Kaindoh
• DT Starters: Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi 
• DT Backups: Tershawn Wharton, Daniel Wise, Keondre Coburn
• Borderline: EDGE BJ Thompson, DTs Danny Shelton, Phil Hoskins & Matt Dickerson
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Frank Clark (Broncos) & Carlos Dunlap (free agent), DTs Khalen Saunders (Saints), Brandon Williams (free agent) & Taylor Stallworth (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 11

Karlaftis was No. 2 on the team last year with six sacks. Without Clark, the Chiefs will need him to build on his first-year campaign as the team’s No. 1 edge rusher. Anudike-Uzomah is an athletic first-round rookie who will be called upon to replace Clark’s snaps, if not his production. 

Similarly, the veteran Omenihu is tasked with supplanting Dunlap after giving the 49ers a career year (659 snaps, seven sacks, including playoffs) in 2022. Danna has been a low-upside rotational player for the Chiefs since entering the league as a fifth-rounder in 2020. He has never had more than five sacks in a season, but he can be depended on to play 500-ish snaps without being a notable liability. Herring and Kaindoh are third-year third-stringers who have combined for zero QB pressures on 134 defensive snaps. They are both vulnerable to the small-school fifth-round rookie Thompson, who flashed elite explosiveness at his pro day (4.55-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 243 pounds).

Jones has balled out with 56.5 sacks over the past five years and was named a first-team All-Pro in 2022. He makes everyone else’s job easier on the line. Nnadi is basically a veteran body: In five years, he has four sacks and six tackles for loss — but he can usually be counted on for 450-plus snaps and can play the A-gap. 

Although Nnadi starts ahead of Wharton, the latter out-snapped (1,020 vs. 909) the former in the 2020-21 seasons, but a 2022 ACL tear could limit him in 2023. To make up for the 679 snaps vacated by Saunders, Williams, and Stallworth, the Chiefs signed the nondescript Wise, Hoskins, and Dickerson and drafted the sixth-round Coburn. Of the three veterans, Wise has played the most recently (240 snaps in 2021-22), but he had just eight tackles and eight QB pressures. 

All three are so uninspiring that maybe even 2015 first-rounder Shelton could beat them for a roster spot after living on the practice squad last year. Against this paltry competition, Coburn should be able to make the roster as a former four-star recruit with four years as a college starter.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Nick Bolton, Willie Gay
• Backups: Drue Tranquill, Leo Chenal
• Notable Turnover: Darius Harris (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Bolton last year was No. 2 in the league with 180 tackles to go along with his 73.8 PFF coverage grade. He’s a reliable three-down player. Gay is a mediocre run defender and tackler (54.5 and 52.8 PFF grades last year), and he could be pushed for playing time by Tranquill, who led the 2022 Chargers defense in snaps and represents a sizable upgrade on Harris. Chenal is a marinating second-year player who could eventually cook with his spicy blend of size (6-foot-3 and 250 pounds) and athleticism (4.53-second 40-yard dash).

Secondary

• CB Starters: L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson
• CB Backups: Joshua Williams, Nazeeh Johnson
• S Starters: Justin Reid, Mike Edwards
• S Backups: Bryan Cook, Deon Bush
• Borderline: CBs Nic Jones & Dicaprio Bootle, S Chamarri Conner
• Notable Turnover: CB Rashad Fenton (Falcons), FS Juan Thornhill (Browns)
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Sneed plays primarily in the slot, but he also lines up on the perimeter in base sets, so he can match up with almost any WR. He led the secondary last year with three interceptions and eight pass breakups. McDuffie started 2022 on IR, but in the second half of his debut campaign the first-rounder flashed strong playmaking (75.1 PFF coverage grade, six pass breakups) and versatility (moving from the perimeter to slot in the postseason). 

Watson and Williams are Day 3 players who both contributed 500-plus snaps of league-average corner play last year as rookies and made Fenton expendable via a midseason trade. Johnson — yet another 2022 Day 3 rookie — led the team with eight special teams tackles and sported an 85.6 PFF special teams grade. He could lose his roster spot to Jones or Bootle, both of whom are more functional pass defenders, but every roster needs dependable grinders to do the dirty work. 

Reid played as a traditional free safety his first four years in the league with the Texans, but in 2022 he successfully transitioned to the box in his first season with the Chiefs. An every-down player, he will need to pick up some of the slack created by Thornhill’s defection. 

Edwards started last year for the Buccaneers after three seasons of serving as the No. 3 safety. He’s experienced and a clear candidate to take Thornhill’s vacated starting spot — but he’s also average in coverage (53.6 PFF grade in 2022) and run defense (46.6 PFF grade). He’s at risk of being jumped on the depth chart by Cook, a 2022 second-rounder who made one start last year. Bush played well last year on limited usage (72 snaps, 82.6 PFF defense grade) but he turns 30 years old this offseason is vulnerable to the fourth-round rookie Conner, who has the versatility to play as a slot nickel or safety.

Specialists

• Kicker: Harrison Butker
• Punter: Tommy Townsend
• Holder: Tommy Townsend
• Long Snapper: James Winchester
• Kick Returner: Richie James
• Punt Returner: Richie James

Butker had a down year in 2022 (75.0% field goal rate), but he did boot a league-high 62-yarder, and in his first five seasons with the Chiefs he had a strong 90.1% mark. Townsend was a first-team All-Pro last year with 50.4 yards per punt. Winchester has been with the Chiefs since 2015; in a previous life, he was the rake in a Jane Austen novel. 

With Pacheco slated to lead the backfield in carries, the Chiefs might opt to have someone else return kicks, and James feels like a good candidate: He has averaged 23.4 yards per return for his career. And he could also be the team’s No. 1 punt returner, given that Toney is probably too valuable to use in that role and Moore is too risky (three muffed punts last year).

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Chiefs’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 29
• Home Division: AFC West
• Opposing Division: AFC East, NFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 8-15
• Opponents: at DEN, vs. MIA (neutral), BYE, vs. PHI, at LV, at GB, vs. BUF, at NE

To the Super Bowl victor go the spoils of a tough road the following season. The Chiefs have the fourth-hardest schedule this year based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. They have two three-of-four away stretches, the second of which closes their key 2023 stretch.

In Weeks 1-7, the Chiefs have only one “gimme” (a Week 3 home game with the Bears) — and after that the schedule gets even harder. In Weeks 8-9, they have back-to-back away games: at Denver against the divisional Broncos at elevation, and at Frankfurt against the upstart Dolphins. If they lose either of those games, they could head into the Week 10 bye with a middling (for them) record. 

After the bye, they host the Eagles on Monday Night Football, and then they have their second three-of-four away stretch of the season: at Las Vegas against the divisional Raiders, at Green Bay against the Lambeau-enhanced Packers on Sunday Night Football, home against the recognition-seeking Bills, and at New England against the East Coast Patriots on MNF.

In that entire stretch, that’s five road games against opponents who all have circumstantial paths to upsets and just two home games against opponents who both have straightforward avenues to victory regardless of circumstances.

I don’t expect the Chiefs’ season to fall apart at any point — but if it does, it will probably happen in Weeks 8-15.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Chiefs.

• Reid makes a series of catastrophic in-game decisions that significantly cost the team in high-leverage moments.
• Mahomes plays like a top-five QB instead of the No. 1 QB.
• Pacheco regresses to his draft-capital expectations, McKinnon crumbles due to age, and Edwards-Helaire continues to disappoint.
• Toney fails to develop into a true No. 1 option, MVS busts way more than he booms, and Rice and Moore plod down the path trodden by Hardman.
• Kelce starts to look like a 34-year-old.
• Smith and Taylor fall short in effectively replacing Brown and Wylie.
• Anudike-Uzomah performs like an overdrafted rookie, and Omenihu produces like a guy signed off a career year.
• Wharton is slow to return to action, and none of the new interior defenders picks up the slack created by Wharton’s injury and Saunders’ departure.
• Gay sees too much playing time.
• McDuffie, Watson, and Williams all take a step back after running pure as rookies.
• Edwards and Cook flop as Thornhill replacements. 
• Butker struggles to find his pre-2022 form.
• Townsend becomes merely above average.
• Chiefs edge out the Chargers to win the division but lose in an upset on Super Wild Card Weekend.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Chiefs.

• Reid innovates, schemes, game plans, and playcalls per usual.
• Nagy makes Bieniemy a distant memory.
• Mahomes has another MVP-caliber campaign.
• Pacheco runs back his 2022 season, McKinnon discovers the fountain of youth, and Edwards-Helaire is thankfully rendered unnecessary.
• Toney balls out, MVS punishes secondaries downfield, and Rice and Moore both become viable No. 2 options. 
• Kelce has another 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown demonstration of dominance.
• Smith and Taylor seamlessly integrate themselves into the line.
• Anudike-Uzomah pairs with Karlaftis to create a franchise pass-rushing duo, and Omenihu emerges as an above-average rotational rusher.
• Wharton is healthy to start the year, and someone else materializes to add depth on the interior. 
• Tranquill and Chenal play ahead of Gay and give the Chiefs a top-five linebacking unit.
• McDuffie, Watson, and Williams prove that last year wasn’t a fluke.
• Edwards and Cook successfully supplant Thornhill. 
• Butker kicks like a boss.
• Townsend keeps on booting bombs.
• Chiefs go 16-1, make a mockery of the AFC playoffs, and win their third Super Bowl of the Mahomes era.

In-season angles

I view the Chiefs as a neutral betting team that often — like a pitcher choosing not to throw his fastball as hard as he can — strategically plays to the level of competition. In other words, against bad teams the Chiefs play below their real power rating.

I believe the Chiefs are most bettable in Weeks 1-4 based on the following trends.

• Reid in Weeks 1-4: 25-15 ATS (23.1% ROI)
• Reid in Weeks 1-4: 30-10 ML (37.6% ROI)

“Andy Reid Off the Bye” is a meme. Reid in Weeks 1-4 is the ultimate instance of “Reid With Extra Time to Prepare.”

The Chiefs are favored in every game this year — but if at any point they find themselves as underdogs I will be tempted to bet them within an inch of my livelihood, assuming Mahomes is active.

• Mahomes as Underdog: 8-1-1 ATS (67.2% ROI)
• Mahomes as Underdog: 7-3 ML (71.4% ROI)

Arrowhead Stadium — or GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, as it’s now called — is a tough place to play, especially in the colder months. Reid (in my opinion) tends to be a little more conservative at home (where the Chiefs are likelier to win), and the Chiefs have a true home-field advantage that can impact opposing offenses. All of that points to the under — even in the Mahomes era.

• Reid Under at Arrowhead: 55-37-1 (16.0% ROI)
• Reid Under at Arrowhead After October: 37-21 (23.9% ROI)
• Mahomes Under at Arrowhead After October: 20-13 (16.9% ROI)

By that same token — and this makes sense if you think about how markets tend to overreact — the over has been exploitable when the Chiefs have been on the road… especially in the colder months… especially in the Mahomes era.

• Reid Over on Road: 49-36-1 (12.3% ROI)
• Reid Over on Road After October: 29-17-1 (21.9% ROI)
• Mahomes Over on Road After October: 17-7 (36.7% ROI) 

I don’t think the Chiefs are outright fadeable at any point during the season. But if I were to bet against them, I’d probably do so when they’re facing the Chargers.

• Chiefs vs. Justin Herbert: 1-5 ATS (65.4% ROI for faders)

 Chiefs only. Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

Chiefs to win AFC West (-160 at FanDuel) and make the playoffs (-450 at DraftKings) both offer theoretical value. In all five years of the Mahomes era, the Chiefs have won their division and at least one postseason game. 

But I don’t want to make those kinds of low-upside bets this early in the offseason. And I doubt I’ll bet them to make the playoffs at all. I don’t want to lay that kind of juice, even if the number is off, for a bet that will take 18 weeks at the minimum to cash. But if the division bet is still available at -155 closer to the season, I’ll consider it.

For now, I’ll look to the Offensive Player of the Year market.

Patrick Mahomes OPOY +3500 (DraftKings)

In recent history, OPOY has essentially become the non-QB MVP. Over the past four years, the award has gone to three WRs and one RB.

But all of those guys had transcendent performances.

WR Justin Jefferson’s 1,809-yard campaign last year punctuated with an exclamation point the greatest three-year opening stretch of a career we’ve ever season from a receiver. WR Cooper Kupp had a Triple Crown performance with 145-1,947-16 receiving in 2021. RB Derrick Henry’s 2,027-yard rushing season in 2020 marked the first time we’d seen someone break the 2,000-yard barrier since Adrian Peterson (2,097) in 2012 — when he won the award. And WR Michael Thomas set a single-season record with 149 receptions in 2019 … and even then he barely beat out QB Lamar Jackson (19 vs. 17 first-place votes). 

But what happens if no non-QB has a truly remarkable campaign? Or what happens if a QB absolutely dominates on his way to an MVP award?

Then he could win OPOY — just as Mahomes did in 2018 with his 5,097-yard, 50-touchdown passing exhibition.

Mahomes has won MVP twice in five seasons as a starter. In another season, he finished third. Even at his consensus odds of +700 I believe he’s bettable in the MVP market. But I think he offers even more value to investors in the OPOY market, where he has finished top-four four times and top-two thrice.

At +3500 (at DraftKings), Mahomes has a 2.78% implied probability to win OPOY. I don’t want to give an exact number — because it’s embarrassing how off market I am on this — but I think his true odds are markedly better.

You can tail the longshot on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up and deposit at least $5 below!