In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

Super-Dee-Duper Sunday

Welcome back to part two of our Super Bowl deep dive right here at Betting Life.

I don’t know about you but I’m feeling like a million bucks—there’s nothing quite like a hot shower at home and sleeping in your own bed. After my week off in Orlando, I sure could use a vacation, though…

Let me take just one second to address the black-and-white striped elephant in the room before it even gets a chance to trample anything. (Clears throat) NFL games are NOT rigged. In fact, if they were, it’d be a blessing for bettors who make money for correctly predicting victories.

Yes, it feels like the Chiefs get their fair share of 50/50 calls, though I would counter their impact is magnified by constantly playing under the brightest lights with the most eyeballs hyper-focused on them.

Bottom line … the time for excuses is over. Play mistake-free or wonder what could have been.


Remember, we got you covered year-round. This week being Super Bowl LIX, we have props centered all around the game, best bets, and so much analysis. See the Watercooler for more. Our very own Freedman just posted a post-Senior Bowl NFL Mock Draft with a few surprises. Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.

—John Laghezza
 

 

PATRICK MAHOMES INTERCEPTIONS PROP & MORE


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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🦅 Can you get a Cowboys fan to yell “Go Birds?” And a few Super Bowl bets.

😱 Jalen Hurts 2+ TDs in a 5-pick parlay? Cooterdoodle isn’t scared.

🤔 Pair Kelce and Saquon in a prop? Pete shares his Underdog picks for the Super Bowl.

🪓 Go on the chopping block against a friend. Free Super Bowl Guilloteenies.

👀 How to not look like a tourist in New Orleans for the Super Bowl. Remember: Every day is gumbo day.

🧭 How’d we get here? The Chiefs’ and Eagles’ Super Bowl road told through betting odds.

AFC Champion Blitz🏈💥—Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Deep Dive

Before I kick off, don’t forget to give yesterday’s edition a once over if you happened to miss it, featuring a granular look at the Eagles heading into Super Sunday.

Where do I start on the reigning back-to-back champs other than wow? And maybe wondering how they keep getting away with this (do NOT say the officiating). What I mean to say is generally, success in the NFL spawns from an identity, which is then sustained … until it isn’t. Apparently, Andy Reid never got that memo. Perhaps just as impressive as the Super Bowl appearances themselves is the manner of reinvention it took to get here.

Find your Super Bowl Props here.

In this case, the stats don’t lie. Whether viewing the Chiefs’ “progression” through the years by points scored, yards gained, or advanced stats like EPA/play (image below), there’s no other way to slice it—this 2024 squad is the worst collective unit in the Patrick Mahomes era.

But will it even matter?

When I asked earlier how they managed to get to this stage, I meant it. How else can we describe the Chiefs’ offensive output this year other than unimpressive? Not only did KC fail to score over 30 points the entire regular season, but there are what would normally be fatal flaws in combination throughout the spreadsheet on both sides of the ball. Usually, one phase of a championship offense pops, but not here …

  • 5.1 Yards Per Play: T-25th
  • +7 Net Yard Differential: T-14th
  • 4.0 Yards Per Rush: T-30th
  • 2.42 Yards After Contact Per Rush: Last🤢
  • 5.3% Explosive Rush Rate: 30th
  • 6.7 Yards Per Pass Attempt: 24th
  • 10.0 Yards Per Completion: T-28th
  • 92 Explosive Plays: 31st (Only CLE had fewer🤢)
  • 8.4% Explosive Play Rate: Last🤢

So how did KC actually pull it off? The short answer is an incomparable Head Coach/QB mind-meld—expressed in drive efficiency while consistently getting to the first down marker. Slow and steady wins this race.

  • 50.3% Offensive Play Success Rate: 5th
  • +0.05 EPA/Play: 9th
  • 3:07 Time Of Possession Per Drive: 1st
  • 2.1 First Downs Per Drive: 5th
  • 2,368 Yards After Catch: 3rd
  • 48.5% Third Down Conversion Rate: 2nd
  • +0.22 Third Down EPA/Play: 4th

Suddenly, Kansas City’s modus operandi and reason for the season is clear as day—efficiency while protecting the football. For reference, the Chiefs’ 14 turnovers ranked fourth-fewest in the NFL. Granted, KC added Hollywood Brown back into the mix as rookie Xavier Worthy continued to show growth as highlighted by Underdog’s Hayden Winks (image below). That said, I just spent entirely too long charting all their weekly stats looking for trends, and still none of it jumps off the page.


We’ve also heard cries of “Playoff Mahomes in full effect!”—but that also doesn’t bear out in the spreadsheets. Sure, the Chiefs scored five more points per game in the postseason—but it occurred with 40 fewer yards/game, the same 5.1 yards/play, and a below-average 47.8% success rate. Not great, Bob.

I guess time’s a flat circle in Patty Mahomes' plane of reality … again, I’m left asking how they keep getting away with this.

Make sure to check out Super Bowl Odds.

IS Travis Kelce HITTING HIS YARDAGE PROP?


AFC Champion Blitz🏈💥—Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Deep Dive

Converse to the Chiefs' offensive erraticism, the key to Kansas City’s defense requires a lot less sleuthing to uncover. The plan is relatively simple in theory and since it hasn’t broken, they ain’t fixing it—KC’s front seven is absolutely loaded with playmakers … and they know it. 

All season, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s strategy remained relatively consistent. Deploy press-man on the outside wide receivers with two safeties back to prevent deep shots, while remaining aggressive in blitz calls. Besides Kansas City, only the Minnesota Vikings posted a +22% blitz rate with two-high safety coverages on over +25% of snaps. Realize it takes a specific talent level up front to pull this specific schematic off—but between Nick Bolton, George Karlaftis, Drue Tranquill, and Chris Jones the Chiefs have it in spades. 

This year’s defensive unit rated tops in the Mahomes era—and they’ve never needed a productive complement more.

  • 19.2 Points Allowed Per Game: 4th
  • 60.0 Plays Per Game: T-2nd
  • 4.1 Yards Allowed Per Rush: T-4th
  • 2.69 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 4th
  • 6.7% Explosive Rush Rate Allowed: T-3rd
  • 27.5% Two-high Safety Coverage Rate: 3rd
  • 22.8% Blitz Rate: 5th
  • 12.5 Quarterback Hits Per Game: 1st

I doubt Spags will go to the curveball with the heater still racking up whiffs, but the question remains—will it hold up against the league’s best overall roster? KC’s managed to get every critical stop by applying the pressure-inducing tactics mentioned above. However, they haven’t faced the like of the Eagles, except for maybe the Broncos, who they were lucky to escape with a 16-14 win against. 

Famous last words incoming, but I think the magic ends here for the champs. 

I hope you enjoyed our little statistical journey into the big game. I’ll be back on Thursday, as always, with what you’ve all been waiting for—bets, bets, and more bets. Plus maybe a wager or two!

SUPER BOWL LIX GAME MODEL