Lamar Jackson-Joe Burrow: Battle in Baltimore a Betting Bonanza
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
Thursday Night Preview, Bengals (4-5) at Ravens (6-3): Breathe easy in Baltimore, it’s all systems go for MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who practiced in full after logging a DNP (knee) Tuesday.
(whispers) As part of the Twitter mob that generally despises Thursday Night Football for its quick turnaround and low quality of play, I’d admit this tilt is a must-watch.
Baltimore flows into tonight’s game like liquid hot magma on offense, having scored fewer than 28 points only once in seven games. Being 6-point favorites at home on a 53 total tells you Vegas shares my exact concerns with the Ravens’ defense. Digesting the defense takes some nuance when contextualizing the offense’s impact on the game flow. What I mean is the league’s top-scoring team will force more passes, which inevitably affects totals. BAL has allowed the second-most completions and highest passing yards/game but shouldn’t be punished—that’s a feature, not a bug. The problem with Baltimore’s secondary functioning as a perpetual pass funnel are the suboptimal underlying rate stats...
-0.16 EPA/Dropback: 30th
12.0 Yards Per Reception: 29th
43 +20-Yard Completions: 32nd
18 Passing TD: T-31st
1.4 Sacks Per Game: 30th
I’m not trying to drag John Harbaugh here, a man who will literally forget more about the game then I’ll ever know. But even as an internet blowhard, I can tell you this—landing on the outliers schematically in this league leaves you prone to exposure. Baltimore plays too soft for my liking—running +5DB looks at a +90% clip, including on first down. Combine that with bottom-5 pressure stats and you get a secondary allowing +6% more passing yards/game than the field. Argue the Ravens’ case for Super Bowl all you like, until this gets addressed there’s a pretty obvious point of failure.
On the flip side, obviously this game’s got massive implications for Cincy. Currently on the outside looking in at (4-5), eventually stacking losses will have its consequences. Hat tip to Lou Anarumo for cleaning up a defense bordering on irreparable after surrendering 29 points/game through five—there’s no denying how well they’ve played for a full month. That said, CIN’s competition level’s bordered the softer side (NYG, CLE, PHI, LV) and it was these Ravens that hung 41 points and 520 yards (!) on them in Week 5. Question is, will the Bengals’ recently improved tackling and clever blitz packages work against the best in the game?
Find out what our NFL Player Props Page highlights for tonight’s game and the rest of the Week 10 matchups.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: It’s Over For The Bengals
- The New York Prop Exchange: On Your Mark …
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—It’s Over For The Bengals
Building off my foundational theory of the case behind Cincinnati scoring above, the operative term is pass funnel. Baltimore doesn’t just get picked on for being leaky, though—there’s the ever-lingering threat of Lamar scoring the rock from anywhere on the field. The Ravens’ propensity for explosives on offense while allowing the league’s most deep shots results in an insane average game total of 55.8 (!) points/game through nine weeks. And if you drill down on the competition-based details, you’ll see it’s very much all or none—opposing QBs topped +370 yards in 33% of games this year (including Joe Burrow).
So why did the Bengals’ team total come in so low today, more than 3 full points below their season average? I’m not totally sure but couldn’t care less. It’d be hard to point at missing Tee Higgins as the reason when Burrow threw for 5 TDs last week, while checking every advanced metric this season: 0.25 EPA/Attempt, 108.1 passer rating, 70.1% completion, 5:1 TD:INT. Joey B is the man.
Heave ho, can we make it 12 NFL player props in a row?
THE BET: CIN Team Total Over 22.5 (-130) DraftKings
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🌋 Can’t get enough of tonight’s TNF matchup? Geoff Ulrich breaks down Ravens vs. Bengals.
🤞 In Russ we trust? See what Freedman has to say on the Steelers and more.
👀 Claudia and Thor deliver the Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Player Props, and more.
🧐 Not in Kansas anymore. Thor has a few more Week 11 CFB Best Bets.
🐷 From Lamar-Joey B to Stafford-Tua … the NFL Week 10 Pigskin Pick’em.
🔮 You don’t score until you score. Anytime TD odds for TNF.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—On Your Mark…
Reunited, and it feels so good … Mark Andrews is the Ravens’ clear-cut starting tight end again. Despite finishing last week’s game, Baltimore’s explosive TE1/A Isaiah Likely is out with a pulled hamstring. Given Baltimore’s league-leading rate of 12-personnel, that should clear the runway for Andrews to reassume a full-time role, something he’d been working back toward anyway (image below).
Cincinnati runs a fairly well-mixed defense in terms of personnel, stylistics, and pressure packages. You will notice Lou Anarumo lean into lots of Cover-3 zones against prolific offenses to keep action in front of defenders. I anticipate Lamar turns to an old friend underneath for catch-and-release routes whenever he picks up on softer zone looks (image below).
Hate to pay the (-140) freight but I’m way over the 58% implied probability anyway. Likely’s 20 routes/game have to go somewhere and as of right now, BAL has only two active TEs. Lamar is fourth in total tight end targets, which is why Andrews cleared this bar in three of his last five—and that was part of a rotation.
When teams find their backs against the wall, expect them to turn toward old reliable.
THE BET: Mark Andrews Over 3.5 Receptions (-140) FD
Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Player Projections to compare:
NFL WEEK 10 PLAYER PROJECTIONS
Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?
Source: Sharp Hunter
Now THIS is a game to get excited about.
Week 10 provides one of the best Thursday Night Football games of the season when the Ravens host the Bengals in a divisional showdown.
The Ravens are between a 5.5 and 6.5-point favorite depending on where you’re betting. The total sits at 53 in most places as of Wednesday Night.
At Sharp Hunter, we track bets from sharp bettors all over the sports betting industry. For this AFC North showdown, we’re showing a lot of bets on the Bengals +6.5.
I’m all for playing the dog here with the sharps.
This is a nice spot for Joe Burrow to let it fly. The Ravens rank No. 3 against the run in DVOA rankings, but just 23rd against the pass—they are a true pass funnel. That should set up perfectly for a Bengals team ranked No. 1 in pass percentage (62.9%) in neutral pace situations. They have been throwing it as much as any team in the NFL this season. I’ll be using a lot of Burrow in Thursday-only DFS.
Admittedly, the 25th-ranked DVOA defense of the Bengals is nothing great, but historically when you get divisional teams meeting up for the second time in the season, you get lower-scoring, close games. That’s a good spot to play the underdog.
And Burrow has been awesome as an underdog—how about 16-3 against the spread as a dog of 3+ points. Bark, bark, bark.
The Bengals could get LT Orlando Brown back in this one. WR Tee Higgins returning would be a boost, though he did not practice all week.
I like the Bengals’ form after a slow start. And I love this spot for Joe Burrow.
It’s scary to go against the current MVP favorite in Lamar Jackson, but you can’t bet scared. I’ll jump in and bet with the sharps at Sharp Hunter—Bengals plus the points for me.
