Last Dance for College Football Teams to Make Playoff
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
We’ve reached the final week of the College Football regular season. It’s a big week, with tons of rivalry games and big-time conference showdowns sprinkled throughout the schedule.
It’s also the final opportunity to punch a ticket to the next round, be it a bowl game, conference championship game, or playoff spot.
Week 13 was one of the most chaotic for playoff purposes. Indiana was walloped by Ohio State, and most believed the Hoosiers’ chance at a playoff spot was over. That lasted all of a few hours before Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all suffered defeats of their own. That put the Hoosiers from on the bubble to squarely in the 12-team field.
The Big 12 also continues to provide drama on a weekly basis. Both BYU and Colorado went down last week, leaving Iowa State and Arizona State in the driver's seat for the conference championship. Whoever wins the Big 12 will almost assuredly get a spot in the playoffs, and a total of nine teams are still mathematically alive for a spot in that contest.
That sets up some important matchups in virtually every conference across the board. Let’s dive into three of the biggest must-see contests for CFB Week 14.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The best College Football games for your Saturday viewing pleasure
- Thor Nystrom’s Best Bets for CFB Week 14
- Watercooler: CFB primers, NFL injury updates, and more
Matthew did it again...
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
☕️ We’ve got you covered. The Week 14 College Football Pregame Show kicks off at 10 a.m. ET.
🎨 We go hard in the paint. Geoff Ulrich breaks down his favorite touchdown scorers for NFL Week 13.
🚑 Ian and Dwain bring you the Week 13 Injury Report and recap what happened on Thanksgiving.
🏆 Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich pick the winners for the remaining dozen NFL Week 13 contests.
💰 Thanksgiving is a time for celebrating. Especially if you enjoy backing public favorites.
Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 14
by Matt LaMarca
Kansas State at Iowa State (-2.5)—7:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Look, any game that is unofficially dubbed “Farmaggedon” is going to get a nod from me personally. This is also one of the longest-running rivalries in College Football. These two teams have met every year since 1917, with Iowa State owning a slim 53-50-4 margin overall. Iowa State did manage to win this matchup last season, but it’s been dominated by KSU in recent years: the Wildcats winning 12 of the past 16 meetings.
The stakes are particularly high for this year’s matchup. If Iowa State wins, it is in the Big 12 championship and will have a chance to play for a postseason spot. If the Wildcats win, it opens the door for them to potentially get in. The tiebreaker scenarios for the Big 12 are vast and complicated, but it’s still mathematically possible.
The Cyclones are the slightest of favorites in this matchup, and they’ve rebounded with two straight wins after losing back-to-back games vs. Texas Tech and Kansas. Kansas State has lost two of its past three games, but it bounced back with a demolition of Cincinnati last week.
Ultimately, this should be a close game between two teams that don’t like each other. That’s what College Football is all about.
South Carolina at Clemson (-2.5)—Noon ET on ESPN
This game also fits that description. The “Palmetto Bowl” has been played since the 1800s, with these two in-state foes squaring off 120 times. Clemson has had the edge in this series, both overall and of late: The Tigers have posted a 73-43-4 record overall and have won eight of the past nine meetings.
Both of these teams currently enter this week on the bubble of the playoffs. Clemson is actually ranked inside the Top 12, but the Tigers are the first team out after adding in the conference champs. The Gamecocks are 15th, so they also have a chance to sneak in on the final week.
Clemson is no stranger to playing for National Championships under head coach Dabo Swinney. One of their two losses this season was also to Georgia, which is certainly defensible. Another statement win over South Carolina could be enough to put this team over the top.
South Carolina has rattled off five straight wins, and it has zero bad losses for the year. The Gamecocks have lost to Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss, all of whom were playoff contenders at one point or another. If they can secure an upset over their biggest rival, they have one of the strongest cases among the three-loss playoff hopefuls.
Texas (-5.5) at Texas A&M—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
With Texas officially joining A&M in the SEC this season, the rivalry between the two schools is back on. That’s great news for College Football fans. These two teams have squared off 118 times previously, but they haven’t played in more than a decade.
Texas is all but guaranteed a playoff spot, but the Longhorns will be looking to take home an SEC crown in their first year in the conference. A win vs. A&M sets up a matchup vs. Georgia, with a first-round bye in the playoffs awaiting the winner.
If the Aggies can pull off the upset, it will be them playing for the SEC crown. That keeps their hopes of a playoff spot alive. Wins over Texas and Georgia in back-to-back weeks almost certainly get them into the 12-team field, even with three losses under their belt.
This game will be played at Kyle Field in front of the Aggies’ raucous fanbase, so expect that place to be rocking. The Longhorns are slight favorites, but this game is a phenomenal way to cap off the CFB regular season. The Quinn Ewers injury situation needs to be monitored.
WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK 14 SLATE?
Best Bets for College Football Week 14
by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for College Football Week 14, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our College Football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full College Football Game Model based on my projections.
USC vs. Notre Dame
The model says: ND -4
Notre Dame will clinch a spot in the CFP with a win. Margin does not matter for the Fighting Irish. They simply need to win.
In lieu of those circumstances, this line feels rich—our system believes we’re getting 3 points of line value. Notre Dame, a team with an efficient-but-explosive offense, is traveling back three time zones for this game.
Notre Dame’s pass defense has been elite in 2024. The Irish's run defense, however, has areas that can be exploited. We expect USC’s running game to have a strong showing.
Meanwhile, USC’s run defense has improved enough that we don’t see ND RB Jeremiyah Love going thermonuclear again, as he did last week against Army.
As a final bit of insurance, this number opens up the possibility of a late backdoor cover or push if USC finds itself down by between 10-14 points in the waning minutes.
Thor’s bet: USC +7
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