In this breakdown of the Week 18 Lions-Vikings Sunday Night Football matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
- Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, motivation, #RevengeGames, etc.).
- Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game.
- Note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Thu., Jan. 2, 6:30 p.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Week 18 Motivation for Lions-Vikings
The stakes for this game couldn't be higher. Whoever wins secures an NFC North title, the No. 1 seed, and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. Whoever loses becomes the first 14-win wildcard team in NFL history. Unreal stuff.
This is the definition of primetime must-watch football.
Betting Odds for Lions vs Vikings Week 18
- Spread & Total: DET -2.5 | O/U 56
- DET ML: -148 (DraftKings)
- MIN ML: +130 (FanDuel)
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -2.5 means the Lions need to win by at least three points to cash. If the Vikings win outright or lose by no more than two, they cash. A total of 56 means that 57 or more points cashes the over, 55 or fewer points cashes the under, and 56 pushes. A -148 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $148 to win $100; a +130 ML, $100 to win $130.
As you'll see with my projections, I like the Lions in this spot, and I expect we'll see points.
This game has the highest over/under of the season, and of all the games played this year the Lions have had the four biggest pre-game market totals.
- Bills at Lions: 55.5 | Final Total: 90
- Lions at Cowboys: 53.5 | Final Total: 56
- Rams at Lions: 53.5 | Final Total: 46
- Packers at Lions: 53 | Final Total: 65
Even if the game ultimately goes under the total, I think we'll see lots of scoring.
Implied Team Totals for Lions-Vikings
- DET Team Total: 29.5
- MIN Team Total: 26.5
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Projections for Lions vs. Vikings Week 18
Lions-Vikings Betting Projections
- Spread: DET -4.4
- Total: 55.4
- ML: +/-180.3
Vikings-Lions Final Score Prediction
- Lions: 29.9
- Vikings: 25.5
Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" projection: DET 30, MIN 24.
Lions-Vikings Projected Odds to Win
- Lions: 64.3%
- Vikings: 35.7%
Lions Week 18 Player Projections
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23.8 | 34 | 264.1 | 2.03 | 0.66 | 2 | 4.2 | 0.07 | 18.2 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 82.5 | 0.75 | 3.7 | 30.5 | 0.21 | 18.9 |
| Craig Reynolds | 4.9 | 19 | 0.13 | 0.9 | 6.4 | 0.02 | 3.9 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 1.5 | 6.2 | 0.05 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 0.01 | 1.4 |
| Sione Vaki | 0.5 | 2.8 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 0.01 | 0.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0 | 6.8 | 74.8 | 0.61 | 14.7 |
| Jameson Williams | 0.6 | 3.7 | 0.02 | 3.9 | 60.9 | 0.43 | 11.1 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.2 | 26.6 | 0.21 | 5 |
| Allen Robinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 0.02 | 0.7 |
| Sam LaPorta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 | 48.4 | 0.42 | 9.5 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 0.07 | 1.4 |
| Shane Zylstra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.02 | 0.3 |
Fantasy points are half-PPR scoring and based only on statistics shown. They do not include fumbles, two-point conversions, and miscellaneous TDs. Player order is by position and depth chart priority.
For our player-focused betting tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as our Player Prop Edge Table.
Vikings Week 18 Player Projections
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23.9 | 35.6 | 273.6 | 1.9 | 0.86 | 3.7 | 12.6 | 0.14 | 19 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13.2 | 59.7 | 0.45 | 3 | 22.3 | 0.14 | 13.3 |
| Cam Akers | 4.2 | 17.4 | 0.15 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 0.04 | 3.7 |
| Ty Chandler | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.01 | 0.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 6.7 | 92.2 | 0.56 | 16 |
| Jordan Addison | 0.2 | 1 | 0.02 | 4.7 | 62.3 | 0.46 | 11.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 0.17 | 3.7 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 0.4 | 0.01 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 0.02 | 0.8 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 0.03 | 0.7 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | 47.7 | 0.31 | 9 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 13.1 | 0.11 | 2.6 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 0.06 | 1 |
Top Fantasy Plays for Week 18 Lions vs. Vikings
Lions Week 18 Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Lions in their skill-position groups for Week 18.
- Jared Goff: QB6
- Jahmyr Gibbs: RB2
- Craig Reynolds: RB51
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: WR3
- Jameson Williams: WR17
- Sam LaPorta: TE3
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
This team is full of fantasy studs, and the Lions are fully motivated to win. Start 'em all per usual.
Vikings Week 18 Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Vikings in their skill-position groups for Week 18.
- Sam Darnold: QB5
- Aaron Jones: RB10
- Cam Akers: RB44
- Justin Jefferson: WR2
- Jordan Addison: WR13
- Jalen Nailor: WR50
- T.J. Hockenson: TE4
The fantasy quintet of Darnold, Jones, Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson is almost as good as that of Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta. Maybe even better.
Week 18 Lions vs. Vikings #RevengeGames
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson and WR Brandon Powell opened their careers with the Lions before finding their way to Minnesota.
In the words of Mary, Queen of Scots: “No more tears now; I will think about revenge.”
Betting Records and Trends for Week 18 Lions vs. Vikings
Lions: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 11-4-1, 37.2% ROI | Favorites: 10-4-1, 71.4% ROI | Home: 4-3-1, 7.0% ROI
- ML: 14-2, 25.6% ROI | Favorites: 14-2, 25.6% ROI | Home: 6-2, -1.6% ROI
- Over: 9-7, 7.3% ROI | Home: 5-3, 19.1% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Lions have once again been strong ATS and ML this year, although less so at home.
Vikings: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 11-4-1, 37.5% ROI | Underdogs: 4-0, 93.6% ROI | Road: 4-2-1, 22.5% ROI
- ML: 14-2, 50.3% ROI | Underdogs: 4-0, 123.4% ROI | Road: 6-1, 43.1% ROI
- Under: 9-7, 7.6% ROI | Road: 3-4, -17.9% ROI
As good as the Lions have been this year ATS and ML … the Vikings have been better—and they've been especially strong as dogs.
Lions: Betting Trends
- HC Dan Campbell: 48-21-1 ATS, 32.2% ROI | 40-29-1 ML, 6.6% ROI
- Campbell at Home: 23-11-1 ATS, 28.4% ROI | 22-13 ML, 16.2% ROI
- Campbell as Favorite: 24-11-1 ATS, 29.4% ROI | 29-7 ML, 18.5% ROI
- Campbell in Division: 16-6-1 ATS, 36.8% ROI | 16-7 ML, 35.6% ROI
- Campbell vs. MIN HC Kevin O'Connell: 5-0 ATS, 90.2% ROI | 4-1 ML, 38.3% ROI
- Campbell vs. Winning Teams: 20-8-1 ATS, 35.0% ROI | 18-10-1 ML, 25.9% ROI
- QB Jared Goff Indoors: 43-21-1 ATS, 28.3% ROI | 40-25 ML, 9.3% ROI
Dan Campbell's data is with Lions only.
What started as covering in 2021-22 has manifested itself as winning and covering in 2023-24.
Campbell has always been strong in division (particularly against O'Connell), and Goff has historically provided almost all his betting value when playing in a dome.
With Campbell, the Lions have been solid in all situations, but this is an especially good spot for them.
Vikings: Betting Trends
- HC Kevin O'Connell: 25-22-4 ATS, 1.7% ROI | 34-17 ML, 18.9% ROI
- O'Connell on Road: 12-7-4 ATS, 17.1% ROI | 15-8 ML, 17.6% ROI
- O'Connell as Underdog: 9-8-1 ATS, 1.6% ROI | 8-10 ML, 14.5% ROI
- O'Connell in Division: 7-9-1 ATS, -14.9% ROI | 10-7 ML, -3.8% ROI
O'Connell has been strong on the road but weak in division.
Lions vs. Vikings Injury Report and External Factors
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
Lions: Notable Injuries
- RB David Montgomery (knee): The Lions are yet to put Montgomery on IR, but he has been out since Week 16 with what looks like a season-ending injury.
- WR Kalif Raymond (foot, IR): Has a shot to return to action after back-to-back full practices—but he also practiced fully last week.
- LB Alex Anzalone (forearm, IR): Practiced fully on Thursday but will likely need more time to get into football shape before returning.
The Lions have a lot of defensive players on IR, but the active roster is almost fully healthy.
Vikings: Notable Injuries
- RB Aaron Jones (quadriceps): Exited Week 17 early, but his back-to-back limited practices to open the week are encouraging.
- EDGE Patrick Jones (knee): Yet to practice after leaving last week early.
The Vikings are largely healthy.
Lions-Vikings External Factors
- Home-Field Advantage: The Lions over the past three seasons have had one of the league's best home-field advantages—but HFA is cut in half in division, and the Vikings (like the Lions) play on a synthetic turf surface at home.
- Rest: The Lions have a one-day rest-and-prep disadvantage coming off Monday Night Football.
Lions-Vikings Anytime TD Player Prop
- Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD: -280 (FanDuel)
- Proj: 0.96 TDs | -413.5 to Score
Gibbs has played in eight games in which No. 2 RB David Montgomery has either been out or played no more than 30% of the snaps.
In those eight games, he has converted 135 carries, 44 targets, and 1,000 yards into eight TDs.
Given that the Lions are favored and this game has a season-high total of 56, the Lions are likely to score a lot of points. It's reasonable to project that some of those will come via the ground game—and that probably means Gibbs.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)
