With only one game on the docket in the NBA tonight, Joe Metz takes a deeper dive into some Luka Doncic prop bets and odds for November 14th to determine how to bet on one of the NBA's biggest stars:

The NBA has had a slew of massive slates this week and instead of scaling back by a few games, they've consolidated the schedule down to a single game on Thursday, November 14th—The Dallas Mavericks vs. the Utah Jazz.

Matt LaMarca broke down his best bets for Mavericks vs Jazz from a game standpoint, but I want to dive deeper into one specific player that headlines the game—Luka Doncic.

Luka Doncic Player Props And Odds For Tonight

To start our deep dive into Doncic, I've pulled his available props and listed most, but not all of them. You can find all of his available player props and corresponding odds across the market with our NBA Player Prop Finder (pictured below):

 

As you can see, ESPN Bet has (as of now) no Doncic props listed. This could be a result of the mid-day update that Kyrie Irving has been downgraded to questionable (shoulder).

This will alter Doncic's available props in a big way, so make sure to keep tabs on the news as we approach tipoff.

Available Luka Doncic Player Prop Odds

Luka Doncic's available prop bet markets include, but are not limited to:

  • O/U 30.5 Points
  • O/U 8.5 Rebounds
  • O/U 8.5 Assists
  • O/U 48.0 Points + Rebounds + Assists
  • O/U 39.5 Points + Rebounds
  • O/U 17.5 Rebounds + Assists
  • O/U 3.5 3-Pointers Made
  • To Record a Double-Double (Yes; -185; DraftKings)

You can also bet on Doncic's steals, blocks, and turnovers as baseline props.

In addition to the baseline props, you can also look to some longshot markets, including:

  • To Record a Triple-Double (Yes; +390; DraftKings)
  • Score First Field Goal (Yes; +550; FanDuel)

As a reminder, you can track/compare the prices across the industry for all of these props and more with our NBA Prop Bet Finder.

Which are the best Luka Doncic player props to lock in? Great question.

Luka Doncic Prop Bets

Step one of evaluating which Luka Doncic prop bets we want to lock in is cross-checking the available lines and prices above with our NBA player projections.

As things currently stand, we are projecting Doncic for the following:

  • 36.1 Minutes
  • 25.4 Points
  • 10.7 Assists
  • 9.2 Rebounds
  • 1.4 Steals
  • 2.1 3-Pointers Made

This helps provide a baseline expectation, though the projections are certainly not a source of truth. My two favorite ways to bet on Doncic tonight are:

  • Luka Doncic o30.5 Points - Risk 1.15u to win 1
  • Luka Doncic To Record A Triple Double - Risk 0.5u to win 1.95

Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points (-115; FanDuel)

I wasn't as fortunate as LaMarca was when he got this prop at 29.5, but I still like the over at 30.5, especially with Irving's status up in the air.

Doncic is coming off of back-to-back 30-point-per-game seasons (32-plus per game, actually) and while he hasn't been as prolific as a scorer this season, the spot is just too good to pass.

The Jazz rank as the fourth-best matchup for opposing combo guards (which is what Doncic is classified as in RotoGrinders' Defense vs. Archetype tool) and rank seventh in the NBA in pace. With the soft matchup, extra possessions, and my tendency to agree with LaMarca that the 9.5-point spread is a bit wide, this is a spot where I wholeheartedly disagree with our projections. It's too good of a Luka spot to pass.

Luka Doncic To Record A Triple Double (+390; FanDuel or DraftKings)

If I'm leaning into the matchup, I'm leaning all the way in.

Not only are the Jazz the fourth-friendliest matchup for Doncic's archetype, they also allow 7.36% more rebounds and 9.56% more assists per game on average against combo guards (per RotoGrinders).

Since we're playing this from the angle that the game remains more competitive than the spread implies, his minutes projection of 36.1 could come in light in a close game (or if Irving ends up sitting).

+390 simply seems like too much value on a player of Doncic's caliber, who's still looking to notch his first triple-double of the season after recording 21 of them last year.

You can track all of our expert NBA picks in our free NBA bet tracker, here.