Personal thoughts on tournament expansion aside, the fact of the matter is that there will be March Madness basketball being played on our TVs for the next couple of days.

Tuesday and Wednesday’s evening entertainment comes from the “First Four” matchups as a pair of sixteen and ten seeds battle it out to make the field of 64. Below are some leans and best bets for the First Four of the 2024 NCAA tournament.

Best Bets for Tuesday's First Four Games

(16) Wagner (Lean +3.5) vs. (16) Howard (-110, DraftKings)

The first game of the tournament features the Wagner Seahawks battling it out against the Howard Bison in a matchup of who gets to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in the round of 64. While both units' tournament outlook looks bleak, at least one team will get to hang their hat on the fact that they won a tournament game.

This matchup is even more intriguing when you dig deeper into it as both teams could not be more opposites of each other. Wagner comes into the contest ranked 334th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) and 171st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) while Howard ranks 192nd in AdjO and 334th in AdjD per Kenpom. Howard will also want to get out in transition after a miss at a moderate pace while Wagner ranks near dead last in Tempo.

A contrast of styles normally favors the defensive-minded unit as it presents an opportunity for their offense to get a boost in production and that may be the case again in this matchup.

The issue with backing Wagner in this situation is that their style of play presents a major problem in a single elimination format and that stems from their willingness to diminish the number of offensive possessions with their slow pace of play.

Especially with their offense ranking near dead last in AdjO, meaning that they are very prone to getting put in a hole with nearly zero percent chance of being able to dig out of it with a lack of urgency and consistent scoring.

I lean towards taking Wagner +3.5 but I am willing to wait to see if this number climbs a bit more for some added security to counter a potential Wagner scoring lull.

(10) Colorado State vs. (10) Virginia (Lean Under 120.5) (-110, DraftKings)

While the first matchup on Tuesday’s slate is a contrast of styles, Colorado State and Virginia will look to turn the game into a defensive slugfest and at a snail’s pace of play.

Not only did the committee make the head-scratching decision of putting Virginia in over the likes of St Johns, Oklahoma, and Seton Hall, but they also wanted to take it a step further by making the most disgusting matchup possible.

Alas, this game still needs to be played, and with it comes a potential betting angle. The under immediately sticks out as both units rank top-40 in AdjD while also 270th or lower in Tempo.

Virginia once again excels at smothering opposing looks over the full course of the shot clock, boasting an Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage of 46.2%. Their havoc-style defense will be critical towards doing their part for the under as the Rams come in as a far better offensive unit by ranking 42nd in AdjO.

Like the previously mentioned matchup, I will also wait on making a bet for this game as the over took immediate action. This total opened at 118.5 and jumped up to 120.5 as of writing. It’s worth waiting to see if the over will continue to take action before laying an under at its peak as points will come at a premium with two elite defenses battling it out at a methodical pace.

Best Bets for Wednesday's First Four Games

(16) Grambling State vs. (16) Montana State (Lean -3.5) (-110, Caesars)

It’s no secret at this point that I prefer to fade teams who play at a snail’s pace in a tournament format and Grambling State fits that mold as they rank 314th in Tempo.

Grambling is even more enticing to fade when you factor in their inability to churn out any sort of offensive production as they rank 297th in AdjO. Regression also looms large over the Tigers as they finished the year ranked eighth in Luck.

As for Montana State, the Bobcats will want to get out and run and take advantage of a scrambling defense in transition for a high-quality three-point attempt. While they convert from deep at a high rate, the issue with the Bobcats is that their offense does not boast much more versatile production than that.

Their half-court sets and interior looks are underwhelming and play a major factor in their lowly 234th-ranked AdjO metric.

With that being said, this game is a pass as Grambling State runs a style of play that brings in too much variance and Montana State is prone to scoring lulls should they be halted to a halfcourt set. Should the Bobcats show that they can maintain their fast-paced style of play but their shot-making starts cold, then they may be worth a live wager with hopes of positive shooting regression swinging back toward the mean.

(10) Colorado (-2.5) vs. (10) Boise State (-110, Caesars)

I briefly broke down this game on Betting Life’s YouTube channel with Matthew Freedman when we discussed instant bracket reactions as I love Colorado’s chances of covering the spread.

This team is criminally underrated as they are the second highest-rated double-digit seed per Kenpom’s Adjusted Efficiency Margin and should be playing in the round of 64 rather than a first-four contest.

While their placement is unfortunate for Colorado, their misfortunes may be for our gain as we now get to back them against the one-dimensional Boise State offense.

Boise State’s scoring production is heavily reliant on their bigs in the interior and now has to face a red-hot Colorado defense that boasts an Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage of 44.1% in their last three contests.

The Buffs interior defense as a whole dips to league average over the full course of the season per Opposing Two-point Percentage, but they now get the benefit of sacrificing perimeter coverage for more bodies down low with Boise being ineffective from deep.

With an expected boost in defensive production and massive advantages on the offensive end with their elite shooting, back Colorado at no higher than -4 as they look to move on to face the Florida Gators in the next round.