The first round is in the books and we now turn our attention towards our Round of 32 best bets with more exciting matchups in store.
Like the Round of 64, the Round of 32 will be broken into two parts as day and night time slate best bets. Be sure to also check out Fantasy Life’s discord channel for more free picks and March Madness-related content with Matthew Freedman’s player prop projections.
Round of 32 Saturday Day Games - Best Bets
(9) Michigan State vs. (1) North Carolina (Over 139.5) (-110, Caesars)
Michigan State’s team total under was a frustrating loss to start our Thursday best bets slate, shooting an incredible 43.5% from three and 50% from the field against an elite defense to squeak past the total. Even without a true interior scoring presence to command defensive attention, Michigan State had no issue with using their perimeter play to break the Mississippi State coverage.
After fading them on Thursday, we now back the Spartans on their ability to score in this contest as they have the tools to exploit North Carolina’s glaring weakness.
North Carolina’s weakness is their inability to smother perimeter shots, even while ranking seventh in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD). Per ShotQuality, North Carolina gives up high-quality jump shots at one of the worst rates in the nation.
That spells potential disaster against Michigan State who is a far higher quality of opponent and one who can punish them from the perimeter. Michigan State ranks 65th in Three Point Completion Percentage, averaging 35.9% from deep. Their guard play is elite, and their facilitation ability is more than enough to help create separation at the arc to create high-quality perimeter looks.
Michigan State’s lack of interior production seems less than ideal when taking an over, but North Carolina will still anchor Bacot at the rim instead of cheating him up for more coverage.
Speaking of Bacot, he comes into the matchup with a massive advantage on the offensive end and will be the Tar Heels' consistent source of scoring. His step back in his scoring production is correlated with the emergence of RJ Davis and a boost in the Tar Heels' secondary cast of scorers, but Bacot is still very much a lethal threat on the block.
His high motor and relentless pursuit to the rim will cause serious issues for the Spartans' defense, commanding defensive attention to help create gaps in their elite coverage. That helps the likes of Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan, two off-ball scorers who feed off of Bacot and Davis.
Better yet, North Carolina will also look to get out and run at any chance they can get to avoid Michigan State’s halfcourt defense. Elliot Cadeau runs the show as the Tar Heels' true point guard, as well as getting the benefit of RJ Davis being able to take anyone off the dribble in transition. Expect points at a quick rate in what should be a thrilling high-scoring contest.
(5) Gonzaga (Moneyline Parlay With Arizona) vs. (4) Kansas (-116, DraftKings)
After being on a potential upset alert, Gonzaga quickly silenced the doubters with a thumping against McNeese State. The Cowboys had no answer for Gonzaga’s offense, conceding an incredible 47.6% from three and 51.7% from the field. Every bit of the Zags eighth-ranked Adjusted Offensive Efficiency was on full display, now getting the benefit of taking on a depleted Kansas squad.
The lack of depth for Kansas kicked in late in the second half, showing tired legs and looking sloppy as Samford built a comeback. The Jayhawks managed to hold on for the win, but that same level of sloppiness will prove to be far more detrimental against the Zags.
Gonzaga plays fast and wants to get out in transition to set up their offense. Not only do they do that at an efficient rate as previously mentioned, but they now get the added benefit of wearing down a thin Kansas squad.
Even when held to a halfcourt set, switches, and shifts in coverage for Kansas will be sluggish as the game wears on. That was apparent after Samford finished the contest with an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 52.1%, conceding high-quality looks as they struggled to keep a defender in front of the opposing shooters.
Gonzaga opened as a -1.5 favorite and has quickly been bet up to -4.5 as of writing. Instead of buying a number with the value zapped out of it, I will back them in a two-team moneyline parlay with Arizona. Be sure to shop around as always as the odds on this parlay can range from -116 to -135.
As for Arizona, they looked every bit of a national title contender as they boat raced Long Beach State. Granted you need to take the result with a grain of salt against an inferior opponent, but it was still impressive to see the versatility of their offense.
Arizona now comes into the matchup against a severely thin Dayton squad, mirroring the same philosophy as Gonzaga against the Jayhawks. Arizona plays at the 16th fastest pace in the nation, setting up their offense in transition, and will look to wear down Dayton on tired legs.
Not only is Dayon running thin, but their interior defensive production is mightily regressing as we witnessed against Nevada and their scoring bigs. They now take on the duo of Caleb Love and Oumar Ballo, a vicious combination of slashing and post-up play.
Should Arizona’s defense continue to excel at defending the perimeter, then Dayton will struggle to generate any sort of consistent scoring against the Wildcats' athletic defenders at the rim. Arizona has held their past three opponents to just 25.8% from deep and can sacrifice interior defense by anchoring Ballo while tightening the guards at the perimeter.
