The round of 64 concluded with some exciting contests and massive upsets, now giving a couple of double-digit seeds a great chance to move on to the Sweet Sixteen.
Outside of a few elite teams, the parity for everyone else seems as small as it’s ever been. The night slate may have a common theme as you can see in my bets listed below, potentially giving us some low-scoring tight contests with added excitement until the final buzzer.
Round of 32 Saturday Night Games - Best Bets
(11) Oregon vs. (3) Creighton (Under 147) (-110, ESPN)
Oregon came through as one of my favorite bets in the round of 64, getting the opportunity to take on a South Carolina squad that was due for some regression after finishing the season ranked first in Luck per Kenpom.
They also had a major advantage on both ends of the court with their size in the interior, forcing the Gamecocks to rely on more outside shooting while Oregon got the benefit of getting an uptick in high-quality looks at the rim.
The Ducks now take on a Creighton squad that matches their size in the paint with stud big man Ryan Kalkbrenner manning the middle. Kalkbrenner uses his length well to negate looks at the rim while also serving as an elite go-to scorer for the Bluejays. Kalkbrenner averages 17.3 points per game while shooting 65% from the field and 28.8% from three.
His matchup against the Ducks big man N’Faly Dante is poised to be a blockbuster with two elite scorers going at it. Dante is the Ducks' leading scorer averaging 16.5 points per game while shooting 70.5% from the field.
With both bigs also being capable defensemen, that shades value towards the under as it may revert both offenses to rely heavier on shot-making. An uptick in jump shots brings a higher chance for scoring lulls, especially if both bigs are capable of anchoring their ground and not requiring an extra defender to help double on the help side.
Both teams preferred pace of play also favors an under with both teams ranking below average in Tempo. Creighton ranks 208th in Tempo while Oregon clocks in at 183rd. Expect prolonged possessions when either Kalkbrenner or Dante struggles to get a look, needing to kick back out and reset their half-court set.
(14) Oakland vs. (11) North Carolina State (Under 147) (-110, DraftKings)
I faded Oakland and their zone against the Kentucky Wildcats to my own demise, figuring that Kentucky’s ability to abuse their athleticism and elite shot-making would break down their defense. Kentucky still managed to score, but their defense failed to show up.
Oakland now faces a different style of offense against North Carolina State, an offense that runs through their star big man DJ Burns. Burns is a matchup nightmare against singular coverage due to his massive frame and soft touch around the rim. Burns can impose his will against a majority of defenders while simultaneously using some finesse to create separation for a high-quality interior look.
Luckily for Oakland, a zone defense is exactly what you run to slow down interior scoring. The Golden Grizzlies should have two defenders in his vicinity at all times, one bodied and the other hovering in his area to create havoc. We may even see Oakland get aggressive early on to make sure he does not get in a rhythm, throwing two bodies for a quick double and kick out.
With Burns being limited, that forces the Wolfpack to rely more on their perimeter production and guard play. DJ Horne is still a formidable scoring guard in his own right, but Oakland’s zone also forces him into more stop-and-pop mid-range looks instead of getting to the rim. North Carolina State as a whole ranks around the middle of the pack in shooting, averaging an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 50.9% which is good for 165th in the nation.
North Carolina State is not an elite defense by any means, but they will be a step up in quality of coverage in comparison to the Golden Grizzlies' previous opponent in Kentucky. The Wildcats are 114th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while the Wolfpack clock in at 77th.
Oakland’s preferred pace of play also favors the under as they rank 239th in Tempo. North Carolina State leans towards an above-average pace, yet Oakland’s ability to force them deep into the shot clock will make up for the transition scoring.
(7) Texas (Team Total Under 70.5) vs. (2) Tennessee (-110, Caesars)
It was a brutal first round for the SEC with South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn, and Mississippi State all going down. Tennessee looked head and shoulders above the rest of their conference, routing an inferior St. Peters squad with ease. Granted the level of competition played a factor, but the Vols do flirt with national contender Kenpom historic metrics.
They now get a far tougher test against the Texas Longhorns, a unit that has gone under the radar due to the conference they play in. As a whole, Kenpom has the Longhorns ranked 24th but a lot of their shine has been worn off due to playing in the Big 12. That goes to show how deep the conference runs, having to battle the likes of Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State.
Looking deeper into the Longhorns, they bring in a balanced attack by ranking 27th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 37th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. A big part of their offensive production stems from star guard Max Abmas, a former Oral Roberts sensation who now averages 17 points per game for the Longhorns.
The issue for the Longhorns is that their scoring ability is rather anemic. After Abmas, only Dylan Disu and Tyrese Hunter average double figures in the scoring department. That leaves them prone to scoring lulls when they face elite coverage units who focus on their top crop of scorers.
We may see just that when they face the Tennessee Volunteers, a unit that ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. A big reason for their elite defensive mark comes from their ability to smother looks at every area of the court, ranked fourth in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage by holding opposing offenses to a lowly 45.1%.
