Outside of an overtime to burn our under in the North Carolina State vs Oakland game and double overtime for our under in Oregon vs. Creighton, the rest of the best bets cashed with ease for some much-needed momentum heading into the final day.
Our March Madness best bets have normally been broken into two slates, yet Sunday will just be in one. Also, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s player prop projections and bets in the Fantasy Life Discord free picks channel.
Round of 32 Best Bets - Sunday Games
(10) Colorado vs. (2) Marquette (Over 147.5) (-110, BetMGM)
We kick off Sunday’s best bets with the day's first game with the Colorado Buffaloes facing the Marquette Golden Eagles.
The bar for excitement could not be any higher after Colorado gave us the game of the tournament against Florida in the round of 64. Both teams were on fire for most of the contest, going back and forth in a tight contest until Colorado squeaked out the win.
They now face a Marquette squad with a tale of two different halves, looking like they were on upset alert early on against Western Kentucky before boat-racing them in the second half. With Tyler Kolak back in the lineup, Marquette’s offense has reverted to the ways that lead them to a 20th-ranked Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
A big reason for their elite mark in offensive efficiency has stemmed from their ability to create high-quality scoring opportunities and capitalize on them for points on the board. Marquette’s offense comes into the contest ranked 20th in the nation in Effective Field Goal Percentage per TeamRankings, averaging an impressive 55.2% from the field.
With Kolak back in the lineup and looking healthy, some pressure is removed off of Kam Jones' shoulders. While Kam Jones is a go-to scorer in his own right, getting his equal in the scoring department helps limit the amount of help-side coverage he receives from opposing defenders. That opens the door for Kolak and Jones to run their two-man game, as well as increase the quality of jump shots for their secondary scorers.
Capitalizing on those jump shots will be vital as second-chance opportunities will be rare against Colorado and their massive advantage on the boards. The Buffs rank 11th in Total Rebound Rate while Marquette drops down to as low as 286th. Normally a lack of second-chance opportunities plays towards an under, but in this instance, it plays both ways as Colorado will get an uptick in second-chance opportunities as a relentless interior scoring unit.
The over has already ticked up a point but we may see this continue to steam as Marquette rounds back into their lethal offensive form. Colorado is also just every bit as efficient on the offensive end with their style of play, relentlessly attacking the interior for high-quality scoring opportunities. Colorado should also have a fair share of high-quality three-point attempts with Marquette sacrificing perimeter coverage for more bodies in the interior.
(12) Grand Canyon (Wait on Team Total Over) vs. (4) Alabama
In Alabama’s first-round matchup against Charleston, I preached to take the over in a game that would feature plenty of volume. I then doubled down by saying to take a live early should both units start out cold while generating high-quality looks. We were blessed with that opportunity when Alabama hit a scoring lull, cashing both over tickets in a high-scoring affair.
Their next-round matchup against Grand Canyon presents a different wait-and-see type of betting opportunity as the line movement may present value towards Grand Canyon’s team total over. As of writing, early action has ticked Alabama’s spread up a point while the total over has gone down and I could not disagree more with the line movement.
Grand Canyon’s performance against Saint Mary’s was mightily impressive, now facing a much weaker defense that gives up high-quality scoring looks at a routine rate. After facing a defense that ranked 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom, Grand Canyon now gets the benefit of going against a Crimson Tide defense that clocks in at 117th.
Alabama’s own pace of play will bleed into Grand Canyon’s, forcing them to ramp up the tempo to stay within scoring pace. It’s not as if the Lopes run at a slow rate, ranking 116th in Tempo, but they will need to match Alabama at their top-10 rate which means extra offensive possessions for more scoring opportunities.
Should the line movement hold steady, then it will be worth it to wait and see if we can get Grand Canyon’s team total over at a discount. They should have no issue with exploiting the Tide’s inability to defend the rim or cover opposing shooters, giving the Lopes a chance to ride their white-hot momentum after one of the more dominating performances of the tournament.
(6) Clemson vs. (3) Baylor (-4) (-115, ESPN)
New Mexico was one of my favorite bets as noted multiple times leading up to the contest and they laid an egg at the worst possible time. It’s not as if Clemson’s defense gave them fits, New Mexico just ran cold as they missed an abundance of layups and wide-open jump shots.
Leading scorers Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr finished the contest shooting a combined 5-25 while JT Toppin and Donovan Dent went a combined 5-15.
Positive regression looms large with another lethal offense coming into town. Baylor enters the contest ranked fifth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency backed behind a versatile attack with six players averaging double-digit figures.
Baylor excels with their spacing and facilitation with their guard play which gives them high-quality looks at the perimeter. Clemson can not afford to give them an ounce of space as Baylor ranks third in Three Point Completion by averaging 39.9% from deep. Unfortunately for Clemson, defending the three has been a weakness as they rank 140th in Opposing Three Point Completion Percentage.
One area of concern is Baylor’s struggles to defend the rim at a consistent rate, now taking on the Tigers' star center PJ Hall who averages 18.7 points per game. With Baylor having the size and length to make him uncomfortable with help-side coverage without straying too far away from their assignment, the Bears may opt into the idea of doubling Hall and daring someone else to beat them.
This masks their defensive efficiencies and brings in a higher variance with Clemson’s ability to score. Factor in regression looming large for the Tigers' defense and the Bears are a play at no higher than -5.5.
