One day of March Madness is in the books with day two set to kick off with more tournament action. The day slate features plenty of intriguing teams who can make some noise, including FAU who captivated the nation with their run last year, and New Mexico as one of the most dangerous double-digit seeds in quite some time. Be sure to look out for Friday’s night slate best bets as I will have plenty of more action rolling into the night.
Round of 64 Best Bets for Friday Day Games
(11) New Mexico (-2.5) vs. (6) Clemson (-110, DraftKings)
Friday’s day game best bets start with a contest that I have talked about at length and that is the New Mexico Lobos taking on the Clemson Tigers. New Mexico is one of the more dangerous double-digit seeds in recent years, now getting a beautiful chance to make a run should they get past Clemson.
The timing could not be any better for New Mexico as they get a Clemson squad whose defensive production is falling off a cliff as of late. The Tigers come into the contest ranked 67th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and a big reason for their skid has been from their inability to smother opposing looks. In their past three games, opposing offenses are averaging an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 57.2%
That spells potential disaster against a Lobos squad that excels at generating high-quality looks at the rim from their slashing guards. Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr, and Donovan Dent are all capable scoring guards, as well as big man JT Toppin hovering around the interior. All average over 12 points per game and will apply serious pressure on Clemson’s defense in their efforts to challenge their looks while simultaneously spacing them out.
With New Mexico being allowed to score at a consistent rate, that puts Clemson in a less-than-ideal spot due to their slow pace of play. Clemson plays at a methodical pace, ranking 260th in Tempo per Kenpom. A slow-paced squad with a regressing defense has been a popular fade spot in this best bet series and Clemson fits the perfect mold of an early loss target because of it.
(9) Northwestern vs (8) FAU (-3.5) (-110, Caesars)
Like New Mexico, FAU is another team I talked about in the podcast with Matthew Freedman to monitor as they face a hobbled Northwestern squad. During recording, Northwestern’s Matt Nicholson was listed as questionable and would serve as a potential massive loss should he be ruled out as he is their best option to guard FAU’s Vlad Goldin.
Since recording, Matt Nicholson has been ruled out and FAU has been steamed up to -3.5. For good reason too as Northwestern is now barren of options to defend the interior. Goldin was already a matchup nightmare as he is a mountain of a man with a soft touch around the rim, now getting even higher quality looks as he imposes his will on the block against smaller defenders.
Goldin’s ability to score at a consistent rate is even more worrisome for Northwestern as offensive possessions will come at a premium with their slow pace of play. The Wildcats heavily rely on perimeter production on minimal opportunities, bringing in a dangerous amount of variance against an FAU offense that can score at a more consistent rate. Take FAU at no higher than -4 as well as using them as a low-juiced two-team moneyline parlay option with a team later mentioned in this article.
(14) Colgate vs. (3) Baylor (-13.5) (-115, BetMGM)
Normally a popular upset pick, the flames on Colgate have cooled off as they get an unfortunate draw against a strong Baylor squad. The Baylor Bears field one of the best offenses in the league, ranked sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO). They excel at creating separation at the perimeter, boasting an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 55.5%, as well as being able to slash to the rim for high-quality scoring opportunities.
That puts Colgate in a tough situation as they simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with Baylor in the scoring department. The Raiders rank 211th in AdjO and have been ice-cold from deep in their past three contests heading into tournament play, shooting a lowly 27.9% from the perimeter. Attacking the perimeter is vital for Colgate, needing to stretch out Baylor’s middle defense for higher-quality looks in the interior.
Expect Baylor to steadily build a lead with mirroring offensive identities, possessing more versatile firepower from both the perimeter and interior. Baylor’s defense also can mask their struggles at defending the rim, sagging their coverage back into the paint until Colgate can force them to respect their perimeter shots and stretch them out.
(13) Yale vs. (4) Auburn (-12.5) (-110, BetMGM)
In nearly any other matchup, Yale would be a very intriguing team for an upset opportunity. They rarely make mistakes, excel at facilitating the ball, and limit the number of offensive possessions as a slow-paced team. Exactly what you look for in a team to generate a big upset. The issue against Auburn is that they do not have the athleticism or speed to keep up with and will be forced to play at an uncomfortable pace.
Don’t let Auburn’s fourth seed fool you, they fit the mold as a potential national title contender per Kenpom. The Tigers boast an AdjO of 10th and AdjD of 4th, as well as fielding multiple go-to scorers who can take over in a moment’s notice. They are severely under-seeded after a cold stretch while dealing with injuries, now wreaking havoc at full health as shown during their SEC conference championship run.
Yale will need to capitalize on their offensive possessions with jump shots at an unrealistic rate just to threaten for a potential upset, but will most likely be stuck in a hole early and often as Auburn ramps up the pace with their high-quality scoring chances at the rim. On top of making a wager on Auburn at -12.5, I will also tie in their moneyline with the previously mentioned FAU moneyline for a two-team moneyline parlay at around -114.
