The last slate of the round of 64 kicks off around 3:50pm EST when the Texas AM Aggies face off against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. While that game is currently not on my radar from a betting perspective, plenty of other matchups have caught my attention for a wager in what should be an exciting conclusion to the round of 64.
Round of 64 Best Bets - Friday Night Games
(9) TCU (-3.5) vs. (8) Utah State (-115, BetMGM)
I gave out TCU at -3 in my Bracket Reveal Best Bets article and I still love them at -3.5. Some books have even ticked up to -4 as of writing, sitting at my stop point for the Horned Frogs.
Fading teams that have ranked high in Luck per Kenpom have been one of my favorite fade spots as we witnessed with South Carolina and Utah State fits that mold by coming into the tournament ranked 14th.
As for TCU, they have been on the other end of the spectrum in terms of luck by clocking in at a lowly 298th in that regard. An unfortunate reality, especially when factoring in the level of competition they have to face in conference play with little room for error against the likes of Kansas, Baylor, and Houston.
As noted in the Bracket Reveal article, Utah State’s defense has mightily regressed as they have skated by in their past few contests. In their past three contests, they have conceded an Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage of 53.4% and now face a very physical TCU squad that attacks the paint relentlessly. Should Utah State’s defense continue to struggle to smother looks, TCU’s offense will be in a position to score at a routine rate.
Speaking of physicality, TCU’s havoc style of defense may be a shock to Utah State’s group of guards and potentially open the door for an uptick in turnovers. With an uptick in turnovers comes an increase of points off of turnovers which will help pad a lead should TCU revert back into a scoring lull.
(13) Vermont vs. (4) Duke (-11.5) (-110, BetMGM)
Vermont would have been a team to back should they have drawn anyone else, but they got the misfortune of drawing a Duke squad that has serious advantages against them on the offensive end, especially with the status of Vermont’s big man Matt Veretto in question. As of writing, Veretto is said to be suiting up but is still questionable to play.
Even if he does give it a go, him not being 100% is detrimental for their interior defense against one of the best-scoring bigs in the nation. Kyle Filipowski has taken major strides in scoring, serving as both a perimeter slasher and a posted-up big on the block.
A big part of Vermont’s success has stemmed from their ability to lock down the interior, but they now have to sacrifice their interior coverage against Filipowski who can stretch them out. Forcing his defender to leak out creates gaps for Duke’s off-guards to exploit.
Simply put, Duke should have little issue with generating high-quality scoring looks.
It’s a semi-large spread to cover for two teams who play at a well below-average pace, but it’s hard to envision how Vermont consistently scores as a below-average three-point shooting team to bust Duke’s coverage. Vermont ranks 200th in Three Point Completion Rate, averaging a lowly 33.5% per game.
Duke’s spread has taken action since the open, and it would not surprise me if it continues to rise until tipoff.
(13) Charleston vs (4) Alabama (Live Over After a Scoring Lull)
Like TCU, this is also another game that I fired on right away as soon as the bracket was revealed.
Charleston vs Alabama has serious “game of the round of 64” potential as both teams will look to ramp up the pace of play and fire away from the perimeter. The steam on the over already reflects this notion, going up from 169 to 174.5 as of writing.
While the current number of 174.5 has zapped a lot of the value from when I bet this at 169, this game is still a prime target for a potential live wager. With a heavy emphasis on three-point production from two teams who are in the top 10 in three-point rate comes a potential increase in the chance for a scoring lull.
Perimeter-heavy teams bring a heavy variance in the scoring department, bringing value to a live-over. That doesn’t necessarily mean to fire away on the over should both teams start out cold as you will need to make sure that they are both getting high-quality looks. There is a massive difference between a team that misses low-quality forced shots and one that runs cold on open looks.
(16) Longwood (Team Total Under 52.5) vs. (1) Houston (-115, FanDuel)
Houston spent the majority of the year ranked first in Adjusted Efficiency Margin per Kenpom before being jumped by UConn at the last second, yet an argument can still be made that this is the best team in the nation.
Their defense is once again elite, ranking first in AdjD, and are havoc-minded and well-disciplined. They hound the ball handler into making mistakes while help-side defenders cheat up into the passing lanes to create a turnover.
If it wasn’t for their snail’s pace of play that limits the number of offensive possessions and brings in heavy variance against lethal offenses, then I would feel a lot more comfortable in their chances of winning it all. Luckily for them in the first round, Longwood is hardly a threat to be the third 16 seed to beat a 1 seed as they rank 188th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
In fact, Longwood's offense is poised to have a long day as they are ill-equipped to stretch out Houston’s defense as a weak perimeter shooting team and also have no issue with playing at a sluggish pace. While Longwood has seen an increase of perimeter success in their last three contests by shooting 43.8%, they still only shot 33.7% for the whole season and against far inferior competition compared to Houston.
