The time has finally arrived where the brackets lock into place and the field of 64 are ready to do battle. Thursday is here and with it comes the first wave of tournament games for our betting pleasure. I will break down each day’s best bets into two with one focusing on the day games and one for the night slate. The best time of the year has finally arrived.
Round of 64 Best Bets for Thursday Day Games
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Michigan State (Team Total Under 65.5) (-110, FanDuel)
The first game of the field of 64 also features one of my favorite bets of Thursday’s slate. Michigan State had to sweat through Selection Sunday as they waited for their name to be called in the last region and now we get to see if “January, February, Izzo, April” holds true. Spoiler alert, it probably won’t.
While their record on paper underwhelmed compared to some teams that were snubbed, advanced stats still like this Spartan team with one last opportunity to turn it around. Kenpom has the Spartans ranked 18th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, sitting ahead of the likes of Kentucky, Kansas, and Saint Mary’s.
A big reason for their impressive overall mark stems from their elite defensive play, boasting an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) rank of eighth. They smother opposing looks in the interior by holding opposing offenses to just 47.2% inside the, as well as an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 48% when baking in perimeter looks.
Safe to say, the defense has not been the issue for the Izzo-led squad as their underwhelming performances can be pointed towards their offense. Michigan State lacks a true five, meaning opposing defenses can sacrifice interior coverage to shade more toward the perimeter to put a body on their guards.
Mississippi State’s defense will give them no favors as they rank an impressive 20th in AdjD and have been holding opposing offenses' Effective Field Goal Percentage to just 45.4% in their last three contests. With looks across the middle being smothered, as well as facing a Bulldog defense that holds perimeter success to just 29.4% from three, look for the Spartans' offense to sputter once again to the benefit of their team total under.
(11) Duquesne vs. (6) BYU (-9.5) (-108, DraftKings)
The committee did Duquesne no favors with their placement, drawing a stylistic nightmare of a matchup against BYU. The Cougars may not be on the casual fans' radar, but this team has deep run potential. They qualified as a potential national champion per Kenpom historic metrics before their defense regressed in the second half of the season, but their offense is as tactical as it gets and is more than enough to carry them to a run.
BYU’s offense relies heavily on their ability to create separation with crisp facilitation and ball movement to knock down jump shots, now getting the opportunity to do so against a Dukes defense that allows high-quality looks at an alarming rate. Duquesne’s method of limiting looks at the rim does not translate against BYU’s style of play, negating their impressive 28th-ranked AdjD metric.
Worse yet, the Dukes are ill-equipped to play from behind should BYU jump them from the opening tip. Duquesne ranks 251st in Tempo and 166th in AdjO, limiting their number of possessions which hampers their ability to dig out of a hole.
This style of play has been a favorable fade spot of mine, and now we get the benefit of their lone defensive strength getting negated as well. BYU’s spread saw immediate action from the open and it would not surprise me if this number continues to tick up. I may look to tie in their moneyline into a few two-team parlays as well.
(11) Oregon (+1.5) vs. (6) South Carolina (-110, FanDuel)
Sometimes it pays to be lucky rather than good and South Carolina’s Kenpom metrics echo that statement as they come into this contest ranked second in Luck but 49th in AdjEM. Luck does play a major factor in a team's long-term success, but South Carolina’s near-league-best mark is a prime target for regression.
To paint a more clear picture of potential regression for South Carolina, Oregon is only a few spots under the Gamecocks in AdjEM and is a +1.5 underdog as an 11 seed. South Carolina does not excel at either end of the court at an elite mark, ranking 46th in AdjO and 54th in AdjD. Better yet, they also fit the mold of a slow-paced fade target as they play at one of the slowest paces in the nation by ranking 354th in Tempo.
Oregon will also have a massive advantage in the interior with their leading scorer N’Faly Dante towering over the Gamecocks bigs, having at least a three-inch height advantage. Dante averages over 16 points per game and brings a high level of consistency in the scoring department for the Ducks offense.
With Oregon being able to score at a consistent rate, that puts the Gamecocks in a dangerous situation as they have to match the scoring pace with a diminished number of offensive possessions due to their slow pace of play. Back the more consistent source of offense with the Ducks, playing them down to a PK with this number already on the move.
(15) Long Beach State vs. (2) Arizona (Team Total Over 92.5) (-105, DraftKings)
Revenge is on Arizona’s mind after an embarrassing early exit in last year's tournament, now getting the chance to take out their frustrations on the severely undersized Long Beach State 49ers. Not only will Arizona look to do what they couldn’t last year, but they are poised for a deep run as they fit the mold as a potential national champion per historic Kenpom metrics.
A big reason for their impressive marks comes from their run-and-gun style of offense, ranking 16th in Tempo and eighth in AdjO. Caleb Love commands defensive attention as an all-star scorer when he gets out in transition, being able to both stop and pop at the perimeter as well as slash to the rim as an elite finisher.
Better yet for Arizona’s chances of clearing their team total over, Long Beach State will have no issue with wanting to match Arizona’s pace of play which brings an uptick in the number of offensive possessions. The 49ers come into the contest ranked 29th in Tempo.
In the rare chance Arizona is held to a halfcourt set, the Wildcats still possess an ability to score at a consistent rate as Oumar Ballo commands defensive attention on the block. His presence frees up lanes for the Wildcats guards to slash through for high-quality looks at the rim should the 49ers be forced to throw help-side coverage. Arizona will find itself with plenty of ways to score at a consistently fast rate as well.
