Betting Life Newsletter 03/21:
Smoke And A Pancake? Cinderellas And A Preview? Gauging by the response to Wednesday’s dual-sport approach, I figured I might as well keep leaning into variety—it is the spice of life.
The entire betting world ignored work and family altogether to drop whatever it was doing yesterday for 10 straight hours of March Madness—which continues today at 12:15 p.m. EST.
While I don’t dive into the minutiae of the NCAA Tourney quite like MLB or NFL, what kind of red-blooded American isn’t looking for some action?
Today I’ll be donning my dunce cap for a mostly uninformed donkey parlay, before getting back into the Baltimore Orioles and my field of expertise with our nearly completed MLB team preview series.
Some notes!
📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here, along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute!
📋 It’s Rankings Week, and our analysts are… updating their ranks all week. Dwain, Ian, Freedman, and Waz have all posted ranks for your enjoyment.
🔮 For my dynasty heads, Sam Wallace proposed several players who could be good sell-high candidates in dynasty.
OK, time to get to some March Madness talk!
March Madness keeps going tonight!!
👀 Rankings, Friends, Hoobastank, and what’s Aaron Rodgers’ next career move? It can only be cooterdoodle and Jake.
🤔 Just how good are Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland?
🏈 Post-free agency mock draft breakdown. A new betting favorite to go No. 1.
3️⃣ Speaking of mock drafts, Coach Gene dropped our first 3-round mock.
⚡️ Time for Thor’s Rookie WR rankings.
🙌 NFL Free Agency winners. Stock is up on a few players.
🏀🐕🦺NCAA Men’s Tournament—(+1274) Underdog Parlay🐕🦺🏀
If you’ve learned anything about me by this point, there’s literally no shot I’m betting on something picked blind, let alone recommend it to someone else. That said, I’ve been supremely blessed to work in this industry and meet so many kind and sharp people willing to share their advice.
Using a combination of insight via direct message, crash-course article barnstorming, and a full night spent staring at the incomparable Ken Pom’s site, I‘m ready to lose A VERY LITTLE BIT OF MONEY (0.10u max) in good conscience—Let’s go!
LEG 1: Robert Morris +21.5 (-115) vs. Alabama—Alabama’s winning outright as a (-5000) favorite, but 22.5 points is a metric ton to cover with a defense struggling down the stretch and an offense overly reliant on three-pointers.
LEG 2: New Mexico +4 (-105) vs. Marquette—Marquette’s just 5-7 over their last 12, projecting way behind New Mexico both in rebounds and the big-man battle (two of my tournament keys).
LEG 3: Liberty +6.5 (-105) vs. Oregon — Credit the wisdom of the crowd with this one (special shout to my guys Clint Jones and VSiN’s Greg Peterson). Liberty’s the far superior shooting team and plays extremely well away from home. If I was a little more courageous (and not parlaying), they make a solid pick for an outright upset.
LEG 4: Xavier +3.5 (-105) vs. Illinois — Pretty tightly contested all the way across Ken’s spreadsheet, the Fighting Illini rely too heavily on three-pointers for my liking, considering they finished outside the top-300 in deep-ball accuracy.
Bet small, bet smart …
THESE CINDERELLAS COULD SURPRISE
Before we dive into the Orioles, how about a quick look at the…
2024 Team Leaderboard: On-Base Percentage
⚾🏭MLB Team Preview—Baltimore Orioles🏭⚾
Baltimore wrapped up the 2024 season 20 games over .500 (91-71), despite finishing a combined 19-24 in close games (one-run plus extra innings) for the American League’s third-best record behind the Yanks and Guardians. While I hate criticizing GM Mark Elias after the fantastic job he’s done rebuilding a legitimate contender in an impossible division, allowing Corbin Burnes to escape via free agency feels like malpractice to me.
The Red Sox offense poses a major threat with the rookie cavarly coming and the Yankees, though hobbled on the hill, still mash at the dish. The thought the O’s would be able to replace that type of frontline ace talent from within is pure fallacy. From the surface, it appears like we’ll be hitting lots of overs in the AL East this summer.
Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)
- Gunnar Henderson, 3B: .270 / 99 / 92 / 31 / 16
- Adley Rutschman, C: .255 / 72 / 71 / 18 / 1
- Cedric Mullins, CF: .229 / 70 / 54 / 19 / 28
- Jordan Westburg, 2B: .260 / 71 / 68 / 19 / 9
- Colton Cowser, RF: .239 / 73 / 69 / 22 / 9
- Tyler O'Neill, LF: .234 / 66 / 70 / 26 / 7
- Ryan O'Hearn, DH: .261 / 48 / 49 / 13 / 3
- Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: .263 / 61 / 65 / 18 / 3
- Jackson Holliday, SS: .242 / 58 / 48 / 12 / 8
Hitting Overview: If scheduled to pitch against this lineup, I’d seriously consider a 24-hour stomach bug instead—Baltimore finished second last year in home runs (235), isolated slugging (.186), hard-hit rate (42.5%), and led MLB in barrels/plate appearance (9.4%). It’s especially encouraging when considering there are five first-round picks in the lineup (Rutschman, Westburg, Cowser, Mountcastle, Holliday)—and not a single player is 32 years old yet.
Plus former first-overall pick Jackson Holliday, who’s widely considered one of the best prospects in all of baseball, essentially flopped in his rookie campaign (.189 BA, .565 OPS, 63 wRC+). Think about it … how many other squads are so stacked they could have a player of this caliber batting ninth?
Up and down the order it’s one obstacle or another for the opposition. First, it’s elite plate approaches plus contact metrics from the trio of Henderson, Rutschman, and Mullins, before the power gets switched on having to face Westburg, Cowser, and O’Neill—who each boasted ridiculous underpinning power metrics last year (+46% Hard Hit, +12% Barrel, +.401 xwOBAcon).
Toss in the most talented 7-8-9 hitters in MLB (sorry Dodger fans) and B-more’s going to make a run at best offense in the league. But the question remains: Will the pitching be good enough to get them to the promised land?
Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):
- Zach Eflin, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Charlie Morton, RHP: ⭐⭐
- Dean Kremer, RHP: ⭐⭐
- Cade Povich, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐
- Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
Pitching Overview: No one ever expects this to come from a dyed-in-the-wool Yankee fan, but I’m honestly so disappointed in the Orioles approach to pitching this offseason. Baltimore had a chance to pounce on a wounded division and totally blew it. Sure, it signed two free-agent starters this winter. However, they’re a combined 77 years old—Charlie Morton’s thrown too many MLB innings (2,125 IP) while Japanese import Tomoyuki Sugano’s thrown too few (0 IP).
Apparently, Baltimore is planning on lulling hitters to sleep because I don’t see an otherwise-comprehensive attack plan. No one besides old man Morton throws harder than 93 MPH, and it’s not like we’re talking about top-tier command/control guys either. Outside of “ace” Zach Eflin, Morton, Kremer, and Povich struggled with command (+9% BB), failed to win on the edges (+39% Foul), and gave up entirely too many longballs (+1.3 HR/9).
If I were the Orioles I’d be on the phone with the Marlins yesterday trying to package another first-rounder in Heston Kjerstad for Sandy Alcantara. I led off somewhat tongue in cheek, but now it’s gotten more serious—we’ll be betting lots of Baltimore overs this season at this rate.
IS GUNNAR HENDERSON THE POTENTIAL AL MVP?
🧮Betting Building Block—TT > ML / ATS🧮
It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.
No futures bet from me today, so I decided to replay a classic—it’s never a bad time to brush up our betting acumen, especially with MLB season right around the corner.
TT > ML/ATS may look like a high school algebra equation, but this building block is actually useful in real life. The underlying theory is simple—gambling on sports is really hard and we should strive to eliminate variables whenever possible.
The solution to successfully betting sports, regardless if it’s for an outright win (ML) or against the spread (ATS) remains beyond human calculation. And as if that weren’t bad enough, the wisdom of a global crowd then steps in to smooth out any edges as prices constantly adjust.
Rather than surrender and always enjoying a good challenge, I’ve added something in recent years to my checklist before ever pulling the trigger — team totals (TT). Eclipsing a team total provides a singular objective goal, not one that exists on a sliding scale.
Again, the thinking is simple and especially useful in betting underdogs, particularly in MLB—where managers will allow meaningless bases to be stolen or run out their worst relievers, including position players to pitch at times. Rather than need to win outright or stay within a run, most times it’s easier to bet on a bad team to score four runs.
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
WHO WILL LEAD MLB IN HOME RUNS?
