In the old days of 2020, when we had a 16-game season, it was easy for everyone to look at a team’s record, see four games played, and say, “Here’s how this team is doing a quarter of the way through the year.”

Now that we have a 17-game campaign, it’s harder to make such neat statements.

Here’s the thing: The season is driven more by weeks than by games, and we have 18 weeks to work with.

I’m no mathematician. By my reckoning, I’m up a nice +69 units as a sports bettor this year. But it does look like 18 is cleanly divisible by six -- and we just concluded Week 6 (withstanding Monday Night Football).

So now that we’re …calculating … a third of the way through the season, I want to survey some of my preseason predictions and see which of my assumptions (as of now) seem to have been significantly right and wrong.

I think this exercise will help orient me as I enter the second third of the season.

Note: What follows isn’t a complete accounting of everything I got right and wrong. It’s just a consideration of several items that stand out to me currently.

What I’ve Gotten Right (So Far)

MVP Candidates

These are the three MVP bets I made in the preseason.

  • Jalen Hurts: +1200
  • Tua Tagovailoa: +2200
  • Brock Purdy: +5000

All of these bets are logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, by the way.

In investing in these three QBs, I was buying into this general thesis: They would all play well enough to be in the MVP conversation, and their teams would all have strong win/loss records.

As of writing (8 pm ET on Sunday), all three are in the top five in MVP odds, and their teams are all 5-1.

We still have a lot of games left, but I expect Hurts, Tagovailoa, and Purdy (and the Eagles, Dolphins, and 49ers) to continue to impress as the season unfolds.

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Coach of the Year Candidates

In the preseason, these are the two Coach of the Year positions I established.

  • DeMeco Ryans: +2500
  • Shane Steichen: +2500

Most of the time, this award goes to a coach whose team strongly exceeds its preseason win total — and since it’s hard for good teams to outperform in an outsized manner, that means the recipient usually coaches a team that propels itself from terrible to almost average.

Last year, the Texans (3-13-1) and Colts (4-12) were two of the worst teams in the league: They both had top-four picks in the 2023 draft, and they both hired new HCs this offseason.

This year, the Texans and Colts entered the season with a market win total of 6.5. After Week 6, they’re both 3-3 with a reasonable chance to outpace their total by two-plus games.

Given some of the other performances around the league, I doubt either Ryans or Steichen will win the award, but the Colts and Texans are teams not to be overlooked in any matchup.

Lamar Jackson Under 3,500.5 Yards Passing

A lot was made this offseason of Jackson getting OC Todd Monken and presumably having the best WR unit of his career.

Jackson hasn’t played poorly, but the pass-happy offense people expected to see has yet to materialize — and that makes the Ravens a less dangerous team.

What I’ve Gotten Wrong (So Far)

Patrick Mahomes: Offensive Player of the Year (+3000)

This award often goes to non-QBs, but if a QB balls out — as Mahomes did in 2018 with his 5,097-yard, 50-touchdown passing exhibition — he can win both MVP and OPOY.

Mahomes has finished top-four four times and top-two thrice in OPOY voting. Almost every year, he’s a candidate to win this award.

Entering 2023, I figured that he would build upon the success he had last year in his first season without former No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill. I was wrong.

The Chiefs haven’t been bad this year. They’ve lost only one game — and that was in Week 1, by one point, without TE Travis Kelce.

But the Chiefs — at least right now — lack the stratospheric offensive upside I imagined they could possess. 

Najee Harris: Most Yards Rushing (+3000)

Gross.

Entering the season, I thought the Steelers offense would be much better than it has been to this point under second-year QB Kenny Pickett.

Najee Harris

Pittsburgh Steelers Najee Harris (22) stiff arms Las Vegas Raiders Luke Masterson (59) during the first half at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on December 24, 2022. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs Las Vegas Raiders Week 16

And Harris was top-five in carries in his two prior NFL campaigns (No. 2 in 2021 with 307 carries, No. 5 in 2022 with 272).

So the general thesis was this: “Good Offense + Volume Back = Potential for Lots of Rushing Yards”... but it hasn’t worked out that way.

With a -31 point differential, the Steelers are lucky to be 3-2.

Falcons to Make Playoffs (+120)

The Falcons are 3-3 and still live to make the playoffs in a weak NFC South, but they have a -21 point differential and a coffin ceiling with their style of offensive play.

I mentioned in the Week 5 Thursday Betting Life Newsletter that the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings were markedly low on the Falcons relative to the market — and then they suffered a 24-16 loss at home to the uninspiring Commanders (3-3, -43 point differential).  

The Falcons might make the playoffs — but they don’t look like a playoff team.

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