The MLB returns after the All-Star break on Friday with a massive slate and there are two games that I have my eyes on from a betting standpoint, including a rematch of last year's NLCS.
Let’s dive into my MLB best bets for Friday.
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies will clash from the City of Brotherly Love on Friday Night.
The Phillies beat the Padres in five games and advance to the World Series last season, where they lost in six games to the Houston Astros.
San Diego will have revenge on their minds tonight as they aim to bounce back after a disappointing first half of their season.
The Padres were slated to be one of the best teams in all of baseball entering the 2023 season, and for good reason.
This could be the best lineup in baseball, but unfortunately for the San Diego faithful, the talent has not translated to the field.
Between their four stars, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Xander Bogaerts, they have combined for thirteen All-Star appearances.
Despite all of the star power, San Diego ranks 18th in baseball in runs per game.
There are many questions as to why the Padres have struggled from an offensive standpoint, and it will be interesting to see if they can bounce back in the second half of the season.
One thing that the Padres can not blame is their pitching.
San Diego ranks fourth in earned runs per game, allowing just 4.02 runs to opponents.
1. Tampa Bay Rays 3.84
2. Minnesota Twins 3.88
3. Atlanta Braves 3.96
4. San Diego Padres 4.02
5. Houston Astros 4.04
Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove have led this rotation, and their bullpen has picked things up on the back end.
San Diego entered play on Friday 8.5 games out of first place in the NL West and 6.0 games out of the final wildcard position.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, will begin the second half of the season 0.5 games out of the final wildcard spot in the National League.
The Phillies got off to a poor start but closed the first half of the season feeling good about their play.
The Phillies hold odds of -200 to make the playoffs via DraftKings Sportsbook. Similar to San Diego, this Philadelphia team has a lot of star power.
Led by superstar Bryce Harper who proved that he was worth every penny of his $330 million contract a season ago.
Harper delivered one of the biggest swings of his Hall of Fame career in the NLCS when he hit a go-ahead home run in the 8th inning that would help the Phillies win the game and advance to the World Series.
Nick Castellanos is having one of the best years of his career as he earned himself a trip to the All-Star game this season.
The Phillies made headlines in the offseason when they signed two-time All-Star and former World Series champion Trea Turner.
Turner struggled in the first half of the season, batting just .247 compared to his lifetime average of .296.
The pitching for the Phillies has been solid as they currently rank fifteenth in major league baseball in runs allowed per game, allowing 4.40.
Philadelphia is hopeful to get off to a strong start in the second half of the season and get a win tonight.
Pick: San Diego Padres ML (-112, FanDuel)
San Diego will turn things around in the second half of the season.
No team in baseball was expected to win more games than the Padres in the first half of the season.
This team is much better than their record indicates, and they will prove that the rest of the way.
Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for the Friars tonight.
Darvish fits the narrative as someone who struggled in the first half of the season but is much better than his numbers indicate, entering play pitching to a 4.87 ERA compared to his lifetime ERA of 3.58.
Jul 7, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) throws a pitch against the New York Mets during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Darvish has some excellent numbers against this Phillies lineup as the current Phillies team is hitting just .209 vs. Darvish with an OBP of .248.
Only two current Phillies members have an average north of .250 vs. Darvish in Kyle Schwarber (.333) and Trea Turner (.350).
I expect Darvish to continue his stellar pitching vs the Phillies tonight. Conversely, Philadelphia will send Southpaw Cristopher Sanchez to the bump.
Sanchez began the season in the minor leagues but has done a good job since being called up.
He is 0-2 on the season but has pitched to an ERA of just 2.84. He has struggled more at home in Citizen Bank Park, pitching to an ERA of 4.11.
As a team, the Padres have seen left-handed pitchers much better. San Diego represents a team batting average of .249 vs. LHP compared to .228 vs. RHP.
I will trust the Padres to start the second half strong and steal a win on the road tonight.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
No team in baseball exceeded expectations more than the Reds did in the first half of the season.
Cincinnati was projected to finish toward the bottom of the National League at the beginning of the 2023 campaign.
This team has proved their critics wrong as they enter Friday one game ahead of the Brewers for first place in the Central.
The Reds have made the playoffs just once since 2013, and their fan base is starving to return.
The most notable young star on the Reds roster is Dominican Republic superstar Elly De La Cruz.
De La Cruz is a guy that scouts have been high on for years, and when the team called him up, fans could not wait to see him in action.
Elly has lived up to the hype putting together some big-time numbers early in his career. De La Cruz is hitting .325 and has stolen sixteen bags in just thirty major league games.
Jonathan India is another young star on this Reds roster that has performed this season.
India won Rookie of the Year back in 2021 and has shown why this season, as he is second on the team in hits with eighty-seven.
Matt MClain and Spencer Steer are two young players who have blossomed this season and played key roles in the team's success.
The struggle for the Reds in the first half of the season was their pitching. Cincinnati ranks 27th in all of baseball in team ERA (4.87)
That is the worst team ERA in all of the National League.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, finds themselves in second place at the moment, just one game back of the Reds.
The first half of the season was a rollercoaster for Milwaukee, and if you asked most of the team, they would tell you that they underperformed.
Milwaukee currently ranks 15th in team ERA (4.11) despite having one of the best rotations in baseball.
Milwaukee has finished in the top twelve in team ERA for three straight seasons, and they will need their pitching to return to form in the second half if they want to accomplish that goal again.
The Brewers have been without one of their best arms Brandon Woodruff who last pitched on April 7th.
Corbin Burnes has been the ace of this rotation, pitching to the tune of a 3.94 ERA.
The bats have gotten off to a slow start for the Brewers, who rank 21st in baseball in runs per game, averaging 4.22.
The Brewers feel good about where they are because they know they are a much better offensive team and that their pitching should get healthier in the second half of the season.
This is an important series for the two teams as it will decide who is in first place at the end of the weekend.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers F5 ML (-110, DraftKings)
The Reds have enjoyed loads of success as an offense this season, but Corbin Burnes owns this lineup.
The current Reds team is hitting a combined .133 vs. Burnes with a team OBP of .234.
I will trust the numbers as we have seen a fairly sizable sample size (98 combined at-bats) vs Burnes.
On the flip side, Milwaukee has had the number of Reds starters, Graham Ashcraft.
The twenty-five-year-old right-hander has struggled vs. this current Brewers team, as he has surrendered a team batting average of .314 and an OBP of .385.
The last time that he faced the Brewers, he allowed six runs and ten hits in just four innings.
I expect the Brewers bats to heat up early and make us some money tonight.
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