We are officially at the All-Star Break of the MLB season, and that means every game in the second half becomes crucial.
The first half of the season introduced us to many stars and surprise teams, as well as teams with high expectations that have disappointed so far.
Let’s dive into some takeaways from the first half of the season and how I plan to bet on the second half of the season.
First Half Surprises
One of those surprising teams is the Cincinnati Reds, who have shocked the league so far and currently sit in first place in the NL Central.
Despite leading the Central at the break, the Red's current odds of winning the division are +130, with the Milwaukee Brewers holding the best odds at -110.
One of those stars that the first half of the season has produced is shortstop Elly De La Cruz.
De La Cruz is seen as one of the top prospects in baseball, but many did not think he would have such a significant impact so quickly, batting .325 with sixteen stolen bases in just thirty career games.
Another team that has surprised many is the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The D-backs were slated to finish third in their division entering the year, but as we sit at the break, Arizona is tied with the Dodgers for first place. Arizona actually led the division for the majority of the season, but they stumbled into the All-Star break going 4-6 over their last ten games.
Corbin Carroll has been the star of the team and was voted in as a first-time all-star. Carroll was injured a few games prior to the All-Star break but is expected to play in the game.
Where there are surprising teams, there are disappointing teams, and we saw a few on display in the first half.
Jul 7, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
First Half Disappointments
The New York Mets will begin play on Friday 18.5 games out of first place in the NL East and 7.0 games out in the National League Wildcard.
New York spent tons of money in the off-season, including adding reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander.
Verlander dealt with injuries to begin the year and has not looked like he is in Cy Young form to this point. The plan was to pair Verlander with another former Cy Young Award winner, Max Scherzer.
Scherzer did not have the start to the season he hoped for, sporting an ERA of 4.31.
If Scherzer ended the season with that same ERA, it would be the worst of his lengthy career.
The St. Louis Cardinals also fit the role of a disappointing first-half team. The Red Birds entered the 2023 campaign as the favorites to come out of the NL Central, but instead, they find themselves 11.5 games behind the Reds for first place.
It is tough to pinpoint one issue for the Cardinals, but if they continue to trend the way that they started, do not be surprised if you see them become sellers at the trade deadline.
St. Louis went on a magical run a season ago to win the Central, and they will need some more magic to do it again.
The most disappointing team in the first half of the season will be the team this article is centered around—the San Diego Padres.
The Padres had a putrid start to their season after going out in the off-season and making some significant moves. The most notable was the addition of former all-star shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
He is considered to be one of the best shortstops in all of baseball, and pairing him up with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Juan Soto made the Padres one of the most feared lineups on paper.
Despite the star power, the Padres played to the tune of a 43-47 record in the first half of the season. They will enter Friday 8.5 games back in the West and six games out of the National League Wildcard.
Best Bets for the Second Half of the Season
San Diego Padres To Make Playoffs: YES +300 (DraftKings)
This San Diego team is too talented not to take a stab at this number.
Their odds of winning the West are slim, but all we need here from the Padres is to make the playoffs, and I trust that they will climb the ladder in the wild card and find their way into the postseason.
There are two teams in the Wildcard spot right now, the Diamondbacks and the Giants, that will not be there when September rolls around.
Miami is another team that is currently in the first place spot in the NL Wildcard that will regress based on the numbers.
Miami has a run differential of -5, meaning that they have had a lot of luck on their side in close games, and naturally, some of those close games will begin to go the other way.
The Padres, meanwhile, are due for some good luck as they have a run differential of +39 which is third-best in the National League. It is also important to note that the Padres began the year without Fernando Tatis Jr., who is now back on the field and makes a massive difference in the lineup.
From a strength of schedule standpoint, the rest of the way, the Padres have the 14th toughest-ranked schedule. They still play Arizona seven times which will all be critical games and a great opportunity for them to cut into the D Backs lead over them.
Based on the first half of the season, San Diego has an expected win-loss record of 49-41. No team in baseball is expected to have more wins than the Padres.
San Diego will turn things around in the second half of the season and cash this bet in for us.
Jun 3, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates with third baseman DJ LeMahieu (26) after the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
New York Yankees To Make Playoffs: NO +120 (DraftKings)
The Bronx Bombers have an overall record of 49-42 on the season, which is good for fourth place in the AL East.
It is important to note that the AL East is the best division in all of baseball, with all five teams at least five games above the .500 mark. If New York played in the AL Central, they would hold a five-game lead in the division.
The reality is that they play in the deepest division in baseball, and if they want to play into the fall season, they will need to be better than they were in the first half of the year.
On paper, New York was expected to be one of the top offenses in baseball as we entered the season, but their struggles do not reflect that narrative.
New York will need a lot of things to go right in the second half of the campaign if they want to make a run at the postseason.
The numbers tell the story that this is not a good offensive team. New York has cut down on their strikeouts as a team, but they still need to rely less on the home run ball, as they currently rank 19th in runs per game, averaging just 4.4.
New York has also struggled to stay healthy this season, particularly the reigning MVP, Aaron Judge.
Judge, who is coming off of a career year that earned him a nine-year, $360 million dollar contract, has not been able to stay on the field this season. The Yankees slugger has played in just forty-nine games this season, but he has performed well when on the field, blasting nineteen home runs paired with forty runs batted in.
Aaron Judge will return at some point in the second half for the Yankees, but how healthy will he be the rest of the way?
Fellow star Giancarlo Stanton has had his own struggles with staying healthy this season, as he has played in just forty-one games. Stanton has struggled at the plate this year, hitting just nine home runs and sporting an average of just .203.
Giancarlo Stanton has also shown us he is injury prone since joining the Yankees, as he has played in more than 110 games just once in the past four seasons.
New York also depends heavily on guys past their prime who can not give the same production as they have in years past, and there is no evidence that these players will magically turn things around and figure it out.
Anthony Rizzo has been able to stay healthy this year, playing in eighty-four games, but he has struggled from an offensive standpoint. Rizzo is hitting .257 on the campaign, and his power numbers are way down, as he has hit just eleven long balls this season.
Another star that has struggled to find his swing is a former batting champion, DJ LeMahieu.
LeMahieu represents an average of .220 this season which is well below his career numbers as he is a .293 lifetime hitter.
Josh Donaldson has been on the struggle bus having the worst year of his career, batting .152. Donaldson, who is a former MVP, has just fifteen hits in ninety-nine at-bats this season.
New York would also need to jump teams that are better and deeper than they are.
As it currently stands, the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Astros all stand in their way:
- Baltimore now has a nice cushion with a six-game lead over the Yankees.
- Toronto is a team that I have much more confidence in as they have been healthier and shown me more consistency this season.
- Houston is a team that underachieved in the first half of the season and was missing multiple key players who will return to help turn things around.
You can tail both of these futures on DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when they create a new account by signing up below!
