More than any other sport, baseball can feel like a grind. When the variance doesn’t go your way, it can feel like a massive uphill battle.

We’ve been on the wrong side of variance so far this season. Yesterday, we saw the Mets blow a three-run lead to lose a moneyline wager, while an error on a routine groundball to short killed the under in White Sox-Royals. Instead of a 4-1 day, we went just 2-3.

These types of things happen in baseball. It’s part of the territory. Unfortunately, there’s nothing you can do but stay the course and take comfort in the fact that you were on the “right side.” That doesn’t pay the bills, but it should lead to success in the long term.

Let’s get back on our grind for Friday. We’ve got a full 15-game slate to choose from, so there are plenty of spots to look for value.

MLB Bets Today – Friday, April 5

San Francsico Giants ML vs. San Diego Padres (-115; Caesars)

We’ve got an NL West rivalry game between two squads hoping to qualify for the postseason. Neither team has gotten off to a particularly good start this year – that will happen when you play the Dodgers – but there’s optimism that both squads can turn things around.

The opening contest for their three-game series on Friday features a quality pitching matchup between Dylan Cease and Jordan Hicks. Cease was a big offseason addition for the Padres, finishing second in the AL Cy Young voting back in 2022. However, he’s struggled to live up to expectations since then. He labored to a 4.58 ERA in his final year with the White Sox, and he posted a 3.86 ERA in his Padres debut.

Hicks has spent most of his career coming out of the bullpen, but he impressed as a starter in his first game with the Giants. He pitched five scoreless innings, racking up six strikeouts and a 2.06 FIP. In terms of Stuff+, he currently ranks third among all pitchers with at least five innings pitched, trailing only Cristian Javier and Jared Jones.

With this game taking place in San Francisco, I give the Giants the edge. I’d play them up to -125.

Seattle Mariners-Milwaukee Brewers F5 Under 4.0 runs (-110; BetMGM)

Offense should be at a premium in this one, with both teams sending ace-caliber starting pitchers to the mound. Freddy Peralta was dominant in his first start of the year, striking out eight batters in six innings vs. the Mets. He allowed just one run, finishing with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.44 xERA.

Logan Gilbert was equally impressive for the Mariners. The former top prospect pitched seven innings of one-run ball vs. the Red Sox, resulting in a 1.29 ERA and a 1.69 xERA.

Overall, both pitchers posted a Stuff+ of at least 113, putting them well above average.

Additionally, neither of these offenses has looked particularly imposing to start the year. The Mariners are 28th in wRC+ against right-handers, and while the Brewers are 11th, they’ve thrived with an unsustainable .356 BABIP. They’re merely 19th in terms of ISO, and it’s going to be tough to string together a bunch of hits vs. Gilbert.

You could choose to play the full game Under 8.0 at -115, but I’d rather leave the bullpens out of the equation. Under 4.0 for the first five innings is available at BetMGM, and that’s an excellent price tag.

More MLB Bets for Friday, April 5

Phillies F5 ML at Nationals (-185) – By grabbing the first five innings bet in this matchup, we’re focusing solely on the two starting pitchers. This is a massive advantage for the Phillies, who will send Aaron Nola to the mound to oppose Patrick Corbin. Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past few years, so I think there’s value in this number up to -200.

Red Sox ML at Angels (-104) – The Angels have less talent than they’ve had in years after losing Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers, so naturally, they’re 4-2 to start the year. Baseball is weird sometimes. Regardless, I give the Red Sox a solid pitching advantage with Kutter Crawford on the mound against Griffin Canning. Crawford was phenomenal in his first start of the year.

Jared Jones Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Orioles (+110) – I’m a believer in Jones. He dazzled in Spring Training, allowing zero runs across 16.1 innings while striking out better than eight batters per nine. He posted a massive 15.88 K/9 in his first start of the year, so I think he can get to six punchouts vs. the Orioles. The Paydirt DFS sims have Jones going over 5.5 89.0% of the time.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.9 units)
  • Season to Date: 12-9 (+0.97 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise. Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.