Days like yesterday are why we do it. Things hadn’t exactly gone our way to start the year, but on Thursday, everything aligned. We put together a perfect 5-0 slate. To quote legendary one-handed bowler Roy Munson, if you could bottle that up, it’d be sweeter than Yoohoo.
That said, the time for celebration is over. It’s back to the grind, with another 15-game slate to break down for Saturday. Let’s dive into some of my top options.
MLB Bets Today – Saturday, April 6
Chicago White Sox-Kansas City Royals Over 9.0 (-105; BetMGM)
You don’t necessarily think of offense when you picture the White Sox and Royals, but I think these teams are poised to put some runs on the scoreboard on Saturday.
The Royals have an elite matchup vs. Chris Flexen, who is simply not good enough to be an MLB starter. He struggled to a 6.86 ERA and 6.20 xERA across 102.1 innings in 2023, and he was roughed up for four runs in less than five innings in his first start of 2024.
When Flexen ultimately departs, don’t expect much help from the bullpen. Chicago’s relievers have combined for a 5.09 ERA this season after posting the fifth-worst mark in 2023.
The White Sox’s matchup is a bit tougher, but Michael Wacha is far from unhittable. He has a career FIP of 4.06, and he’s been above that mark in five of the past six seasons. He struggled in his first outing of 2024, allowing three earned runs in just five innings.
Like Chicago, the Royals’ bullpen has struggled in 2024. They’ve pitched to a 6.10 ERA after posting the second-worst mark in baseball in 2023. These squads combined for 11 runs in their first meeting this season, and this could be another high-scoring affair.
Milwaukee Brewers ML vs. Seattle Mariners (-116; FanDuel)
If I were forced to highlight “my team” for 2024, it would be the Brewers. They were my bold call in the futures podcast I did with Matthew Freedman, and I’ve bet them to go over their win total and win the NL Central. It’s obviously very early, but I’m not complaining about their 5-1 start.
I like their chances of picking up another win on Saturday. They’re taking on Bryce Miller for the Mariners, who came out of the gates red-hot as a rookie in 2023. However, his production faded down the stretch, with his ERA spiking to 4.60 after the All-Star break. Miller was also dreadful on the road as a rookie, posting a 5.18 ERA outside Seattle.
Miller’s struggles continued to start 2024, pitching to a 7.20 ERA and 7.91 xERA in his first start of the year. The public still remembers him dazzling early in his rookie year, but he’s become overvalued in the betting market.
The Brewers don’t do anything spectacularly, but they do everything good enough. They’re worth a bet in this spot.
More MLB Bets for Saturday, April 6
Blue Jays ML at Yankees (+102) – We rarely have the opportunity to back Kevin Gausman at better than even money, so I’m taking advantage. The Yankees are obviously a tough matchup, but Gausman is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Good pitching can beat good hitting, and the Blue Jays’ offense should be able to score vs. Clarke Schmidt.
Diamondbacks ML at Braves (+185) – Let’s hunt for a big dog. The Braves are one of the best teams in the league, but at 4-2, they’re not invincible. The Diamondbacks will have a talented young hurler on the mound in Brandon Pfaadt, while Braves’ starter Max Fried was lit up in his first game of 2024. There’s no real concern with Fried long-term, but this matchup isn’t as lopsided as the odds suggest.
Luis Severino Under 6.5 strikeouts (-145) – Severino’s best days are likely in the past. He was passable in his first start with the Mets, but he was only able to last five innings. A similar result is likely in the cards Saturday vs. the Reds, and pitching in the Great American Ballpark is never easy. The Paydirt DFS sims love this under, with Sevy going under 6.5 at a 92.2% clip.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 5-0 (+2.55 units)
- Season to Date: 17-9 (+3.52 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise. Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
