Thursday’s slate is on the smaller side, with just seven contests originally scheduled to take place. One of those games has already been rained out (Twins at Tigers), and a few others are in jeopardy.

Approaching games with weather concerns is tricky. If a game gets rained out, it’s no big deal – your bet is just going to get refunded to you. However, delays can have a big impact on bets. Starting pitchers rarely come back after a delay, so be cognizant of that before placing any bets. In particular, pitcher strikeout props in games with potential weather problems are extremely risky.

Let’s dive into four MLB bets today I’m eyeing on Thursday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Thursday, April 11

Pittsburgh Pirates ML at Philadelphia Phillies (+124; FanDuel)

Are the Pirates for real? It’s too early to tell, but there have been some promising signs for the Buccos. They’ve won nine of their first 12 contests, and they’ve blown saves in their three losses. They’ve played a pretty easy schedule to start the year, but they’ve looked the part so far.

They’ll face a step up in competition vs. the Phillies, but they’ll have an edge on the mound on Thursday. Jared Jones will make his third start of the year, and the top prospect has lived up to the billing at the major league level. He’s striking out more than 13 batters per nine innings through his first two starts, resulting in a 3.84 ERA, 3.54 xERA, and 3.30 FIP.

The Phillies will send Ranger Suarez to the mound, who is a solid pitcher in his own right. That said, he posted a 4.19 ERA in 2023, and he’s off to a similar start this season.

Suarez is also left-handed, and the Pirates have feasted on southpaws in 2024. They’re third in wRC+ in that split, and most of their top hitters bat from the right side.

Add it all up, and I’m happy to grab the Pirates at +124 in this spot.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, April 11

Astros F5 ML at Royals (-125) – The Astros have had a slow start to the year, sitting at just 4-9 through their first 13 games. Their price tags have started to decrease, making this the perfect time to buy low. They should have the pitching edge in this spot, with Hunter Brown grading out much better than Brady Singer in full-season projections. I’ll grab the first five moneyline for a slightly better price tag.

Orioles-Red Sox Under 8.5 (-102) – This matchup features an excellent pitching matchup between Grayson Rodriguez and Garrett Whitlock. Rodriguez was once considered the top pitching prospect in baseball, and he’s started 2024 with a 2.19 ERA and 11.68 K/9. Whitlock has been even better, posting a 0.96 ERA across his first two outings. Both of these offenses can hit, but they should struggle more than usual in this matchup.

Hunter Brown Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115) – I’m doubling down on Brown this evening. He’s got excellent swing-and-miss stuff, posting a K/9 of 9.74 or better every year in the big leagues. He hasn’t pitched deep enough into games to realize that strikeout potential this season, but that could change vs. the Royals.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 3-1 (+0.95 units)
  • Season: 26-19 (+1.34 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.