We’re starting to get into a bit of a flow. There is no betting grind quite like baseball, which can command your full attention every day for nearly six full months. It’s a different beast than the NBA – which features more spread betting than moneylines – and it’s barely even related to the NFL.
We were able to get on the board with a 4-1 record on Tuesday; let’s look to keep things going in the right direction with our MLB bets today.
MLB Bets Today – Wednesday, April 3
Cincinnati Reds ML (+150) at Philadelphia Phillies (BetMGM)
Wednesday’s matchup between the Reds and Phillies features a sneaky-good pitching matchup. The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the bump, and he needs no introduction at this point. He’s a perennial top-five Cy Young finisher, and he’s coming off six shutout innings in his first start of the year. He posted an equally strong 1.51 xERA in that outing despite facing a potent Braves offense.
Wheeler will get most of the attention in this matchup, but don’t sleep on Frankie Montas. He also pitched six scoreless innings in his first start of the year, and his 1.15 xERA was slightly better. Montas missed nearly all of 2023 due to a shoulder injury, but he proved to be a quality starter during his tenure with the A’s.
Both of these teams can do some damage offensively, but the Reds have been better to start the year. They’re 11th in wRC+ and third in ISO vs. right-handers, while the Phillies are 25th and 10th, respectively.
The Phillies deserve to be favored in this spot, but not by as much as they currently are. I’ll grab the Reds as underdogs at +150 or better.
New York Yankees-Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8.5 runs (-105; Caesars)
The Yankees finally suffered their first loss on Tuesday, with Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks’ bullpen shutting them out over nine innings. I’m expecting pitching to rule the day once again on Wednesday.
Merrill Kelly isn’t quite as good as Gallen, but he’s posted an ERA of 3.37 or better in back-to-back years. He allowed just one run across 6.2 innings in his first start, so he appears ready for another strong campaign.
Carlos Rodon was a disaster in his first year with the Yankees, but he has historically been an excellent pitcher. He had ERAs of 2.37 and 2.88 in his final two years before joining the Yankees, and he allowed just one run in his first start of 2024.
Add it all up, and runs should be at a premium in this matchup.
More MLB Bets for Wednesday, April 3
Padres ML (-154) vs. Cardinals – Joe Musgrove vs. Zack Thompson is one of the larger pitching mismatches on the slate. Thompson grades out as one of the most hittable starters in the league, and he had a Stuff+ of just 59 in his first outing of 2024 (down from 83 last year). The Padres should feast.
Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 strikeouts (-150) – Glasnow has pitched well for the Dodgers this season, but the strikeout stuff hasn’t been there. He has just eight total punchouts through 11 innings, so this number seems way too high. You can also play under 7.5 at better-than-even money: PayDirt DFS has Glasnow projected for just 6.87 strikeouts vs. the Giants.
Joe Musgrove Under 6.5 strikeouts (-156) – I like Musgrove in his matchup vs. Thompson, but I’m also playing the under on 6.5 strikeouts. The Cardinals were one of the tougher teams in baseball to strike out last season, and Musgrove’s strikeout numbers have decreased over each of the past four years.
