We had a couple of tough losses on Sunday, particularly the Guardians blowing a two-run eighth-inning lead vs. the Braves. They would end up losing the game in extra innings, costing us a nice potential +158 underdog in the process. We haven’t been able to really get rolling to start the year, but I’m confident we’ll be able to turn things around.

Monday brings about a new week and, with it, a bunch of new MLB series. We’ll have 12 different games to choose from – pretty sizable for a Monday – with each game starting at 6:35 p.m. ET or later.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Monday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, April 29

Rays vs. Brewers Under 8.5 runs (-120; Caesars)

Monday’s matchup between the Rays and Brewers should be a good one. Tampa Bay will send Ryan Pepiot to the mound, who was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. As good as Glasnow has been, the Rays are probably pretty happy with their return. Pepiot is young, cheap, and nasty.

So far this season, he’s pitched to a 3.77 ERA and 3.37 xERA while striking out 9.73 batters per nine innings. He’s posted a 115 Stuff+ rating – way up from his mark with the Dodgers in 2023 – and has all the makings of a future ace. The Brewers’ offense has been strong against right-handed pitchers this season, but Pepiot should be able to keep them at bay.

On the other side, the Brewers check every box you look for in an under squad. Their starting pitcher on Monday isn’t elite, but Bryse Wilson has a solid 3.50 ERA across 18 innings. He’ll only need to go around four innings before handing the ball to the Brewers’ strong bullpen. They also play excellent defense – they were second in Defensive Runs Saved in 2023 – which also helps mitigate scoring.

This number is down to 8.0 at most locations, but you can still find a juiced 8.5 at Caesars. I’m grabbing it while I still can.

Diamondbacks ML at Dodgers (+114 FanDuel)

This play is all about fading James Paxton. On the surface, Paxton has been good for the Dodgers this season. He has a 2.61 ERA and a 2-0 record, so he’s given his team a chance to win when he’s taken the mound.

Still, there are some concerns brewing. His xERA and FIP are both above 5.00, and his fastball velocity is way down compared to last season. He’s averaged just 93.9 miles per hour after sitting at 95.3 in 2023.

Paxton has also had massive issues putting batters away. He ranks in the sixth percentile in chase rate and 14th percentile in whiff rate, resulting in a paltry 4.79 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s walking closer to eight batters per nine, so he’s relied on a .220 BABIP to stay afloat.

Ultimately, regression is coming for Paxton, and when it comes, it’s going to hit hard. There’s no reason it can’t start today vs. the Diamondbacks.

More MLB Bets for Monday, April 29

Yankees ML at Orioles (+100)

It’s rare that we can back a team like the Yankees at even money or better, but I’m happy to do so vs. the Orioles. They’ve been better than the Orioles this season in terms of run differential, and they’ve broken out of their mini-offensive slump with 15 runs in back-to-back games. Grayson Rodriguez has the potential to be a top MLB pitcher, but his potential outweighs his production at this point. I don’t think he’s ready to shut down a team like the Yankees.

Nationals ML at Marlins (+116)

I don’t think I really need to explain this one too much. The Marlins are just 6-23 for the year; they don’t deserve to be moderate favorites against anyone at this point. They had a seven-run lead on Sunday vs. the Nationals, and they still managed to find a way to lose. Any time you can fade them at plus-money, you have to at least consider it.

Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 strikeouts (-165)

As much as I like Pepiot, 6.5 strikeouts is too much for him. He’s gone under this figure in three of his five starts, and one of the exceptions was against the lowly Rockies. The Brewers have been an average team in terms of strikeout rate vs. right-handers, so I think five or six strikeouts is his most likely outcome on Monday.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.50 units)
  • Season: 54-55-3 (-5.57 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.