Monday is always a solid day for baseball. There are a couple of teams finishing up their previous series, but for the most part, it provides new matchups for most of the league. That gives us new opportunities in the betting market.
Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Monday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, May 6
New York Mets-St. Louis Cardinals Over 8.0 runs (-115; DraftKings)
The Mets and Cardinals have both gotten off to disappointing starts this season, particularly on offense. The Mets are merely 17th in runs per game, while the Cardinals are down in 29th.
Still, there are reasons to believe in improvement moving forward. Both teams are loaded with above-average hitters, and their underlying metrics aren’t nearly as poor as their actual ones. No team has underperformed their xwOBA by a higher margin than the Cardinals this season, while the Mets are fifth in that department.
This is a solid spot for both offenses to get going. The Cardinals have always been at their best against southpaws, and they’ll get a matchup vs. Sean Manaea on Monday. Manaea’s xERA is nearly two full runs higher than his actual mark, and he’s struggled mightily in terms of walks.
Kyle Gibson will get the ball for the Cardinals, and he’s also been hit hard this season. He owns a 5.58 xERA, and his Statcast data is also subpar.
When the starters eventually depart, the offenses will face bullpens that have been heavily taxed of late. The Mets leaned on their bullpen a lot during a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rays, while the Cardinals had three relievers go multiple innings on Sunday.
Overall, this game has all the makings of an over.
San Diego Padres-Chicago Cubs Under 7.0 runs (+100; Caesars)
We hit another Wrigley Field under on Sunday, and I’m going right back to the well on Monday. The conditions look pretty similar, with an 11-mile-per-hour wind blowing in straight from centerfield. Targeting unders with winds blowing in at Wrigley has been profitable not just this year but for much of the past two decades.
Additionally, we’ll have two competent starters on the bump on Monday. The Cubs will hand the ball to Justin Steele, who was elite in terms of run prevention in 2023. He picked up right where he left off in his first start in 2024, posting a 1.72 xERA and a .165 xBA.
Yu Darvish isn’t the same pitcher that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of keeping runs off the scoreboard. He owns a 3.83 xERA this season, which is more than good enough to target with the wind conditions.
More MLB Bets for Monday, May 6
Phillies F5 ML vs. Giants (-210)
The Phillies have been extremely impressive to start the year, and they’ll have their ace on the mound on Monday. Zach Wheeler should be able to mow through a Giants’ lineup that owns a 98 wRC+ against right-handed starters. Mason Black will make his MLB debut for the Giants, and while he has an ERA near 1.00 in Triple-A this season, he’s not considered a big-time prospect. This could be a rude introduction for him, with the Phillies ranking sixth in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
Tigers F5 ML at Guardians (-105)
I’m going to continue to fade Triston McKenzie, who has not been the same pitcher in 2024. He is pitching through an injury, and it shows in his results. He owns a 4.99 xERA, and nearly all of his Statcast metrics are subpar. Jack Flaherty has been excellent for the Tigers – 3.07 xERA, 34.0% strikeout rate, 3.4% walk rate – so I give the Tigers the edge over the first five innings.
Yu Darvish Under 5.5 strikeouts (-132)
While Darvish should be able to limit the Cubs’ offense, I don’t think he’s necessarily going to pile up the strikeouts. Darvish was once one of the top strikeout artists in baseball, but his K Rate has dipped to just 21.0% in 2024. He’s had six strikeouts or more in just two of his six starts, and he’s been at four or fewer in three straight. That includes a previous meeting vs. the Cubs in April.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.695 units)
- Season: 72-68-4 (-4.74 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
