Baseball will likely take a backseat for most people on Saturday. There’s a huge 16-game slate to choose from in the MLB, but the NBA and NHL playoffs will officially be underway. It goes without saying that those events carry a bit more cache than April baseball.
Still, just because we’re getting down on the hardwood or ice doesn’t mean that there isn’t also room for baseball. At the sports betting buffet, I always leave room for dessert.
Let’s dive into five of my MLB best bets for Saturday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sat, Apr 20th
New York Mets ML at Los Angeles Dodgers (+158, Caesars)
I’ve gone to the well with the Mets quite a bit recently, including their win yesterday over the Dodgers. Overall, New York has been very good to us, having won 11 of their last 14 games after having started the year 0-5.
The Dodgers are trending in the other direction, having won just two of their past seven contests. There’s no real reason for long-term concerns with Los Angeles, but they had a significantly larger pitching edge Friday than they do today. They couldn’t win with their best pitcher on the mound (Yoshinobu Yamamoto), and now they’ll have arguably their worst.
Sep 17, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Gavin Stone (71) pitches to the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Gavin Stone has undoubtedly been unlucky to start the year, but he still carries a 6.14 ERA into Saturday’s start against the Mets.
Meanwhile, the Mets will hand the ball to a very promising young pitcher. Jose Butto has gotten off to a flying start this season, posting an 11.25 K/9 and a 0.75 ERA through his first two outings. His advanced metrics are also elite – 1.95 FIP and 2.75 xERA – so I’m not expecting much regression.
With the way these two teams have played recently, I’ll take my chances with the Mets again as sizable dogs.
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Washington Nationals ML vs. Houston Astros (+156, FanDuel)
Let’s go straight from one big NL East dog to another. The Nationals will host the Astros on Saturday, and Houston has been easily the biggest disappointment in the league to start the year. They still have plenty of time to turn things around, but at 7-14, they currently have the third-worst record in the American League.
The good news for Houston is that they’ll have one of their biggest bright spots on the bump on Saturday. Ronel Blanco will take the mound, and he’s pitched to a 0.86 ERA across his first three starts. That includes a no-hitter in his first start of the year followed by 5.2 hitless innings in his second start.
Apr 7, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco (56) pitches against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Still, I’m skeptical that Blanco will be able to keep things going, as nothing that he does on the mound is particularly impressive. His pitching modeling data is average, ranking 61st in Pitching+ among pitchers with at least 20 innings. Only one of his four offerings grades out as above average.
Blanco also pitched to a 4.50 ERA and 5.13 xERA across 52 MLB innings last year, so he’s due for some significant regression. Plus, the Nationals have one of their best starters on the bump in Trevor Williams, so I don’t think that Houston deserves to be roughly -185 favorites in this matchup.
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More MLB Bets for Sat, Apr 20th
Orioles-Royals F5 Under 3.5 runs (+102)
This is an extremely low number for a first five under, but at least it’s available at +102. I can’t help but target the under in a matchup between Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes, who are two of the best starters in baseball. Both pitchers have posted an ERA of 2.28 or lower to start the year, and their advanced metrics are just as impressive.
Rangers ML at Braves (+130)
Nate Eovaldi will get the start for the Rangers, and I give him a sizable pitching edge over Charlie Morton. Morton has been roughed up in his past two starts, and at 40 years old, it’s reasonable to assume that he’s not the same pitcher he was in his prime. The Braves’ offense is the best in baseball, but Eovaldi should be able to keep them at bay.
Blue Jays ML at Padres (-112)
Jose Berrios has completely turned his career around over the past year and a half. He has a 1.05 ERA and 3-0 record through four starts this season, and while his advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive, he still gives the Blue Jays a solid edge over Padres starter Randy Vasquez. Vasquez owns a 7.94 ERA in Triple-A this season, and he posted a 5.37 xERA in 37.2 MLB innings last year.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 3-2 (+0.725 units)
- Season: 42-37-3 (-0.985 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
