It’s another fantastic Saturday to be a sports fan. We’ll have a full day of playoff basketball and hockey, and the true sickos can watch the final four rounds of the NFL Draft. There’s also a 15-game MLB slate, starting with the Blue Jays and Dodgers at 3:07 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into my MLB best bets for Saturday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sat, Apr 27th
Arizona Diamondbacks ML at Seattle Mariners (+132, FanDuel)
The Diamondbacks will take the field as moderate underdogs against the Mariners on Saturday. The big reason is the perceived matchup against opposing starter George Kirby. Kirby has pitched to a 3.39 ERA or better in back-to-back years, making him one of the better young starters in baseball.
That said, Kirby hasn't been the same pitcher in 2024. His ERA is down to 5.33, and his pitches haven't been nearly as explosive as they were in 2023. He checked in with a 106 Stuff+ last season (13th-best among qualifying starters), but he’s at just 99 so far this year, which ranks only 52nd among pitchers with at least 20 innings.
Apr 15, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby pitches to the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at T-Mobile Park. All players wore number 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Slade Cecconi impressed in his first start of the year last Sunday, limiting the Giants to just two hits across six innings. His 2.30 xERA in that contest was excellent, and he has some pedigree as a prospect as well.
Ultimately, I don’t think that this is as big of a pitching mismatch as the odds suggest. I’ll take my chances with the Diamondbacks.
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Philadelphia Phillies-San Diego Padres F5 Under 4.0 (-115, BetMGM)
For my money, the Phillies might have the best pitching staff in baseball. Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola are the headliners, but their other three starters have been outstanding to start the year as well, including Saturday’s starter, Ranger Suarez.
Suarez has become a mainstay in the Phillies' rotation after having broken out with a 1.36 ERA across 106 innings in 2021. He’s been absolutely dominant so far this season, having posted a 1.36 ERA and a 1.88 xERA through his first five starts.
Mar 30, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports
On the other side, the Padres will hand the ball to Dylan Cease. He was the runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting in 2022, and he’s been extremely impressive in his first year with the Padres. He’s been striking out more than 10.5 batters per nine innings while posting a 1.82 ERA and a 2.93 xERA.
With these two guys on the bump, runs should be at a premium on Saturday. I like the first five innings to go under 4.0.
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More MLB Bets for Sat, Apr 27th
Reds-Rangers Under 8.5 Runs (+100)
This is another contest with a pitching matchup I like for Saturday. Hunter Greene hasn’t had the best traditional results for the Reds, but his Stuff+ is among the best in baseball. Michael Lorenzen has struggled with walks in his first two outings, but he still has a 2.35 ERA. The Reds' offense has also been ice cold against right-handers over the past seven days (58 wRC+), so I expect a low-scoring affair.
Blue Jays ML vs. Dodgers (+122)
I took a shot with the Blue Jays yesterday, and it’s safe to say that didn’t work out. Still, I’m going right back to the well on Saturday. The Blue Jays will have an excellent starter on the mound in Yusei Kikuchi (2.28 ERA; 2.88 xERA), and the Dodgers’ offense isn’t nearly as potent against left-handed pitchers.
Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Edward Cabrera was once considered an elite pitching prospect, but he’s struggled to live up to the billing at the MLB level. Perhaps that will change in 2024. Through two starts this season, Cabrera has pitched to a 13.91 K/9 and a 1.12 FIP. He’s gotten extremely unlucky on balls in play (.462 BABIP), but he looks like a frontline starter. The Paydirt DFS simulations have Cabrera projected for more than seven strikeouts against the Nationals.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.65 units)
- Season: 52-52-3 (-5.07 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
