The theme of Saturday’s MLB slate is pitching. Some of the best hurlers in baseball will be taking the mound, as well as some promising young starters looking to establish themselves. As a result, only six of the 15 scheduled contests feature a total above 8.0 runs, and only one is at 9.0. Overall, it could be a day where runs are at a premium.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Saturday’s slate, starting with a strikeout prop:
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Saturday, May 4
Christian Scott Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140; FanDuel)
It’s rare that a strikeout prop is one of my favorite wagers of the day, but that’s the case with Christian Scott on Saturday. He’ll be making his major league debut, and his strikeout prop is set at a very reasonable 4.5.
Scott has been nothing short of dominant in Triple-A to start the year. He’s racked up 36 strikeouts in 25.1 innings, and he’s posted a 0.71 WHIP. He has struggled with the long ball – seven of his 12 hits allowed have been homers – but his swing-and-miss stuff is outstanding.
Scott racked up at least seven punchouts in his first four starts despite pitching 6.1 innings or less in each of them. He’ll probably be on a short leash in his first outing, but he doesn’t need more than five innings to potentially hit the over on 4.5.
The Rays’ offense did put up 10 runs yesterday, but they did most of their damage against a left-hander. They have the 12th-highest strikeout rate against righties this season, so it’s a great spot for Scott to pile up the punchouts in his MLB debut.
San Francisco Giants-Philadelphia Phillies F5 Under 3.5 (+100; Caesars)
The Phillies have had arguably the best rotation in baseball to start the year, and Ranger Suarez has been their most impressive starter. He’s pitched to an elite 1.32 ERA, and his 2.01 xERA suggests he’s been as good as advertised. He limits the damage by inducing tons of soft contact – his average exit velocity ranks in the 99th percentile – and limiting the number of free passes (3.5% walk rate). Suarez can also dial up the strikeout pitch when needed, averaging just under a strikeout per inning.
The Giants have been slightly below average against southpaws this season, so I don’t like their chances of getting to him in this matchup.
However, San Fran should be able to keep the Phillies off the board as well. Keaton Winn hasn’t been as good as Suarez, but he’s not that far behind. He owns a 3.18 ERA through six starts, and he excels at inducing ground balls. His groundball rate is above 60%, and it’s hard to do damage when you’re not hitting the ball in the air.
The total on this game continues to drop, but the F5 Under still provides value at +100.
More MLB Bets for Saturday, May 4
Diamondbacks ML vs. Padres (-125)
Brandon Pfaadt will get the ball for the Diamondbacks on Saturday, and he’s a pitcher to target at the moment. His 4.63 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his advanced stats suggest he’s been unfortunate. His 3.10 xERA is significantly better, and he ranks ninth in Pitching+ among 100 starters with at least 30 innings. I give the Dbacks a significant edge on the mound vs. the Padres, with Michael King slumping to a 5.14 xERA and 6.27 FIP this season.
Braves ML at Dodgers (+158)
How often do you get to bet a team like the Braves at +158? That’s an opportunity I can’t pass up. They’ll be at a pitching disadvantage with Bryce Elder taking on Tyler Glasnow, but good hitting can occasionally trump good pitching. The Braves lead the universe in most offensive categories, and they’ll eventually get to face a Dodgers’ bullpen that ranks 11th in ERA. Even if they fall behind, they have the potential to catch up late.
Rockies Team Total Under 2.5 runs (-108)
The Pirates will send Jared Jones to the bump on Saturday, who has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season. He ranks first in both Stuff+ and Pitching+, and he’s racked up more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings. He should mow through a Rockies’ lineup that ranks 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and has averaged just 3.47 runs per game outside of Coors Field.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 3-2 (+0.5 units)
- Season: 68-64-4 (-3.42 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
