With the NFL Draft in the books, the sports calendar is slowly returning to normal. There are still the NBA and NHL playoffs to choose from, but before we know it, we’ll be down to just baseball in the Summer.
Sunday is an early start for the MLB, with nine of the 15 games slated to start at 2:35 p.m. ET or earlier. Five games will start in the late afternoon window (approximately 4 p.m. ET), followed by a Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the Cubs and Red Sox.
Let’s dive into a few of my favorite bets to target for Sunday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, April 28
Pittsburgh Pirates ML at San Francisco Giants (+102; FanDuel)
It’s impossible not to be impressed with what Jared Jones has done this season. The right-hander entered the year with some promise, but no one expected him to be this dominant this early. He’s pitched to a 2.89 ERA through his first five outings, and that somehow undersells how good he’s been.
Jones possesses arguably the best stuff in all of baseball. He ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff rate. He’s generated a higher frequency of swings and misses on pitches in the strike zone than any starter in baseball. His 138 Stuff+ is the best mark among pitchers with at least 20 innings, with only Hunter Greene really being in the same ballpark.
The Pirates have won just two of Jones’ first five starts, but it’s hard to blame the pitching. Their offense has generated just four runs in those outings, and you’re not going to win many games that way.
The offense should be able to do some damage against Keaton Winn, who owns merely a 4.38 xERA this season. Ultimately, the Pirates have a clear edge on the bump, so I’m willing to target them as small underdogs.
Cleveland Guardians ML at Atlanta Braves (+158; Caesars)
The Braves are the best team in baseball – at least for the time being – but the Guardians aren’t that far behind. Cleveland is right behind them in terms of runs per game (5.19 vs. 5.80), and they have the sixth-best team ERA.
The Guardians will get the weakest of the Braves’ starters on Sunday in Bryce Elder. Elder pitched 6.2 scoreless innings in his 2024 debut, but he was clearly fortunate in that outing. His xERA checked in at 4.62, with opposing batters posting a 47.6% hard-hit rate. He also managed just a 15.4% strikeout rate, so it’s hard to imagine the good results continuing if he doesn’t make improvements.
Ben Lively has made just two starts for the Guardians, but his results have been far more impressive. He’s racked up more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings, and his xERA sits at 2.28. We’re dealing with small sample sizes with both starters, but Lively appears to be the better pitcher at this point.
With that in mind, getting the Guardians at nearly +160 stands out as a value.
More MLB Bets for Sunday, April 28
Brewers ML vs. Yankees (+120)
The Brewers have been excellent to start the year, but they still feel undervalued in the betting market. Case in point – they’re +120 at home against the Yankees on Sunday. They’ll square off with Marcus Stroman, who is a capable but beatable starting pitcher. He owns a 3.41 xERA and a 4.17 FIP through five starts, but Milwaukee ranks third in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
Royals-Tigers F5 Under 4.5 (-146)
Tarik Skubal has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball to start the year, racking up a 1.82 ERA in just under 30 innings for the Tigers. Michael Wacha isn’t as dominant, but he’s on pace for his third straight season with a sub-4.00 ERA. Runs should be at a premium with these pitchers on the bump.
Red Sox ML vs. Chicago Cubs (-125)
Tanner Houck has been magnificent for the Red Sox this season. He’s allowed zero runs in three of his five starts, including a complete game shutout with less than 100 pitches (aka a “Maddux.”) Overall, he has a 1.65 ERA for the year. The Cubs will start Hayden Wesneski for the first time this season, and while he hasn’t allowed a run across 6.1 innings in relief, he had a 5.51 ERA as a starter last year. I’ll take Houck and the Sox as small favorites in this spot.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: N/A
- Season: 52-52-3 (-5.07 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
