All MLB teams take a much-needed off day from time to time, and I followed suit on Saturday. My results have not been what I had hoped for to start the year, so I wanted to give myself a chance to reset and evaluate my process. It’s still very early in the year, so I’m still optimistic that we can turn the ship around.
Let’s get back to work on Sunday. There are 15 games to choose from, and as usual, the slate will start early. The first 14 games will start between 1:35 p.m. and 4:10 p.m. ET, followed by a Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the Mets and Braves. Make sure to get your picks in early to avoid getting shut out.
Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Sunday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, May 12
San Francisco Giants ML vs. Cincinnati Reds (-125; BetMGM)
This appears to be a pretty even pitching matchup on paper, with Kyle Harrison taking on Frankie Montas. Harrison’s ERA sits at 3.20 for the year, while Montas isn’t far behind at 3.55.
That said, these pitchers are trending in the wrong direction. Montas got off to a strong start this season, but he has come crashing back to reality of late. Opposing batters have done a great job against him over the past month (per Baseball Savant):
Montas remains a below-average pitcher from a strikeout perspective, so he needs to limit the damage on balls in play to be successful. That’s always a risky proposition.
Harrison’s advanced metrics are a bit more impressive, and he has a matchup edge as well. The Reds are merely 24th in wRC+ against southpaws this season, so I prefer his chances of keeping the opposing offense at bay.
Philadelphia Phillies F5 ML at Miami Marlins (-196; FanDuel)
I can’t resist a good bargain, and -196 for the first five innings is an excellent price tag. It’s only available at FanDuel, with most of the rest of the industry hovering at around -240. It’s rare to see such a large discrepancy, so let’s take advantage while we can.
If this line is no longer available at the time when you’re reading, I still think this is playable up to around -250. Zack Wheeler is arguably the best pitcher in baseball at the moment, and Miami is 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers. They shouldn’t mount much resistance.
On the other side, the Phillies are sixth in wRC+ vs. left-handers. They should be able to get to Braxton Garrett early, who will be making his first start of 2024 after posting a 4.58 xERA last year.
More MLB Bets for Sunday, May 12
Milwaukee Brewers ML vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-134)
Sometimes, a team just has your number. The Brewers are a perfect 6-0 against the Cardinals so far this season, and I like their chances of picking up No. 7 on Sunday. The Cardinals will turn to Miles Mikolas, who has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. His ERA sits at 6.43, and his peripheral stats are equally porous. I’ll gladly take my chances with Bryse Miller in this matchup.
Twins-Blue Jays Over 8.5 runs (+100)
Alek Manoah is officially back, baby. Manoah surrendered seven runs in just four innings vs. the Nationals in his first start, so he’s yet to correct whatever issues have plagued him over the past few years. His 6.12 xERA in 2023 put him in the bottom fourth percentile for all pitchers, and he’s off to an even worse start in 2024. Bailey Ober is also susceptible to hard contact, so both offenses could put on a show on Sunday.
Nationals-Red Sox F5 Under 4.0 (+100)
Ideally, a reasonably priced Under 4.5 will pop up before first pitch on Sunday. That said, I’ll settle for Under 4.0 (+100) if I have to. Brayan Bello and MacKenzie Gore have both been effective this season, and both of these offenses have struggled to put runs on the board recently.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Friday: 1-4 (-1.325 units)
- Season: 79-79-6 (-7.155 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
