Now that’s more like it. We’ve been on a rough stretch recently, but the start of a new month brought our best results in weeks. Wednesday’s picks went 4-0-1, with the only black spot coming with a push in Rays-Brewers. We’ve still got a lot of work to do, but it feels good to put some in the win column.

Let’s look to keep the momentum rolling on Thursday. It’s a small slate, and most of the action takes place in the early afternoon. On days like this, it’s important not to try to force the action. It’s ok to have a few less plays than usual. It’s a long season, and there’s no reason to try to push things too early.

Let’s dive into a few of my top options for Thursday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Thursday, May 2

Orioles ML vs. Yankees (+100; Caesars)

It was unclear who was going to get the start for the Orioles on Thursday, but Kyle Bradish will ultimately make his first start of the year. That’s a great development for the Orioles. Bradish was outstanding for the Orioles last season, pitching to a 2.83 ERA while possessing some of the best stuff in baseball. His 126 Stuff+ rating ranked third among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2023.

The Yankees will turn to Carlos Rodon, who has shown significant improvement this year compared to his first season in pinstripes. Still, Rodon has definitely been fortunate. His xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual mark, while his FIP is closer to 4.00.

Rodon is also a lefty, and the Orioles have smashed in that split this season. They own a 129 wRC+ – the third-best mark in the league – while the Yankees’ offense has managed just four runs through the first three games of this series.

These are two really good teams, but I give the Orioles the edge in Thursday’s matchup. They’re a value at +100.

Cubs F5 ML at Mets (-114; FanDuel)

The Mets were carved up by Shota Imanaga on Wednesday, and they wasted an excellent start from Jose Butto in the process. Unfortunately, they’re not likely to get that kind of production from Adrian Houser on Thursday.

Houser has been roughed up this season, particularly over his past two starts. He allowed six runs in 4.1 innings vs. the Cardinals and eight runs in 4.0 innings vs. the Dodgers. His xERA sits at 6.52 for the year, and his advanced metrics are absolutely brutal. He’s getting virtually no swings and misses – his chase rate and whiff rate are in the 11th percentile or worse – and batters are doing massive damage when they put the ball in play. Houser ranks in the second percentile in average exit velocity, which is a brutal combination.

The Mets are also going to be without Francisco Lindor, which hurts the team both offensively and defensively. Joey Wendle isn’t the same caliber of shortstop, so it’s tough to see the Mets competing on Thursday.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, May 2

Guardians ML at Astros (+112)

The Guardians have gotten very little respect in their series vs. the Astros. They’re underdogs once again on Thursday despite possessing a strong matchup vs. Spencer Arrighetti. He’s pitched to a 10.97 ERA through his first three starts, and while he’s due for some improvement, he’s far from a Cy Young candidate. I’ll take my chances with Cleveland as underdogs.

Nationals-Rangers F5 Under 4.5 (-130)

This matchup features a sneaky-good pitching matchup. Nathan Eovaldi has had a strong start for the Rangers, while Mitchell Parker has been extremely impressive for the Nats. He boasts a 1.69 ERA and 2.80 xERA through his first three starts, while the Rangers are merely 19th in wRC+ vs. southpaws. If he can keep the Rangers’ bats at bay, Eovaldi will hold up his end of the bargain.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 4-0-1 (+2.08 units)
  • Season: 62-61-4 (-4.92 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.