We’ve hit a bit of a rough patch recently, going just 2-8 over the past two days. Losing is never fun, but it’s important to remember that baseball is a long season.
It’s why bankroll management is so crucial in MLB betting. You’re going to go on losing streaks from time to time, so staying disciplined and not tilting is essential.
Let’s look to get back into the win column on Tuesday. We have a 15-game slate to choose from, and all 15 games start at 6:10 p.m. ET or later. That gives us a nice main slate to focus on.
Here are five options I’m eyeing for Tuesday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Tuesday, April 23
Orioles F5 ML at Angels (-156; FanDuel)
After a surprising start to the year, the Angels have slipped back into mediocrity. They’re just 9-14 and remain one of the most rudderless franchises in professional sports. After losing Shohei Ohtani in the offseason, they have just one superstar player (Mike Trout) surrounded by no supporting talent and the worst farm system in baseball.
Trout is still good enough to carry the offense for stretches, but the Orioles are the far superior team. They have good young players at virtually every position, and they only figure to get better as the season progresses.
Additionally, the Orioles will have a burgeoning young ace on the mound Tuesday in Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has pitched to a 2.63 ERA through four starts this season, and he possesses some of the best stuff in baseball. He ranks eighth among pitchers with at least 20 innings in Stuff+, and he’s seventh in Pitching+. Rodriguez also possesses an elite pedigree – he was the No. 6 prospect per MLB.com in 2022 – so there’s no reason to expect regression.
Ultimately, this is a massive mismatch that isn’t really being priced that way. Getting the first five moneyline at less than -160 is a steal.
Royals ML vs. Blue Jays (+105; Caesars)
It might be time to panic with Kevin Gausman. The Blue Jays right-hander has been an elite starting pitcher over the past four years, but his numbers have taken a nosedive to start 2024. His ERA currently sits at 8.16, while his xERA is at 7.73. His swing-and-miss numbers still look good – he’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings – but opposing batters are making elite contact when they put it in play. Gausman ranks in the third percentile in barrel rate and ninth percentile in average exit velocity.
Michael Wacha doesn’t have the same stuff as Gausman, but he’s been the far more effective pitcher this season. He owns a 3.75 ERA, 3.20 xERA, and 3.24 FIP, so he’s given his team a much better chance to win games.
I’ll take the consistency of Wacha over the volatility of Gausman as a +105 home dog.
More MLB Bets for Tuesday, April 23
Marlins-Braves Under 8.5 runs (-105)
The Marlins will have one of their better pitchers on the bump Tuesday in Trevor Rogers, who owns a 3.31 xERA so far this season. The Braves’ offense is elite, but Rogers should be able to limit the damage with his high groundball rate. The Marlins offense is one of the worst in baseball – they’re 25th in runs per game – so I’m expecting a low-scoring affair.
Mets ML at Giants (+116)
The Mets have a tough matchup Tuesday vs. Logan Webb, but they’ll counter with their best pitcher in Luis Severino. Sevy had a brutal final campaign with the Yankees, but he’s looked revitalized for the cross-town Mets. He owns a 2.14 ERA through his first four starts, and he’s striking out a batter per inning. I’ll take my chances with Severino and the Mets as small dogs.
Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104)
Michael King has transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation in his first year with the Padres, and that’s been a success so far. He’s maintained his excellent strikeout stuff, racking up 9.67 strikeouts per nine innings, and he’s gone at least seven innings in two of his past three starts. He’ll have to deal with Coors Field on Tuesday, but the Rockies have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 1-4 (-1.565 units)
- Season: 47-47-3 (-3.42 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
