Losing sucks. I’m not breaking any news with that statement, but not all losing is created equal in sports betting. There’s a difference between a bad process and bad results.

It’s easy to just say “I was unlucky” and chalk up your losses as bad variance, but I do think I’ve been on the sharp side of most of my wagers. I’m getting decent CLV; things just haven’t broken right. Of course, CLV doesn’t pay the mortgage, so I’m hoping that things turn around in the near future. Losing streaks are part of being a sports bettor, and when you’re stuck in one, it can feel like your luck is never going to change. Here’s to hoping we start to turn things around on Tuesday. All it takes is one good streak to get things turning in the other direction.

We’ve got a full slate of games scheduled for Tuesday, with all 30 teams expected to take the field. There are a couple of potential weather issues on the East Coast, but I’m not sure it’s enough to result in any PPDs. Overall, it’s a good slate for us to look for some value.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for Tuesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Tuesday, April 30

Chicago Cubs ML at New York Mets (+110; BetMGM)

I’ve been on the Mets a bunch recently, and for the most part, the results have been pretty good. The team got red-hot after an 0-5 start to the year, but they’ve started to cool down again. They’ve won just two of their past eight games, including the first game of their four-game series vs. the Cubs on Monday.

The Mets will send Sean Manaea to the mound on Tuesday, and it’s a brutal spot for him. The Cubs have been one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws this season, ranking second in wRC+. They’re first in ISO against left-handers, so they can do some damage in that split.

Manaea also appears due for a bit of regression. He’s pitched to a 3.33 ERA this season, but his xERA is over five. He ranks in the 25th percentile in barrel rate and 27th percentile in hard-hit rate, and he’s walking more than five batters per nine innings. Manaea has overcome his subpar batted-ball profile with strong strikeout numbers, but the Cubs haven’t whiffed much against left-handers.

With the Mets’ offense in a funk, a poor showing from Manaea could be disastrous. I like the Cubs at anything better than even money.

Cleveland Guardians ML at Houston Astros (+145, BetMGM)

What am I missing with this line? I have no idea why the Guardians are sizable dogs in this matchup vs. Hunter Brown, who has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season.

Brown has struggled to a 9.68 ERA, and while his peripherals aren’t quite as bad, his xERA is still over six. He’s averaged nearly as many walks as strikeouts per nine innings, and batters are doing damage when they put the ball in play: Brown ranks in the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate.

The Guardians will have a question mark of their own on the mound in Carlos Carrasco, but his numbers are better than Brown’s nearly across the board. The Guardians have also been the superior offensive team this season, ranking fifth in runs per game.

Brown seems like the pitcher more likely to improve – he was a top prospect while Carrasco is nearly 40 – but pricing the Astros at -175 feels like a wild exaggeration.

More MLB Bets for Tuesday, April 30

Phillies F5 ML at Angels (-148)

I’m going to continue to pound the drum for Spencer Turnbull. He’s delivered all season, posting a sparkling 1.33 ERA across his five starts. Tyler Anderson has a similarly good 1.78 ERA for the Angels, but his xERA and FIP are both above 4.50. He’s thrived due to a paltry .181 BABIP that is bound for regression. I’ll take Turnbull in this matchup 10 times out of 10, especially with the Phillies also possessing the offensive edge.

Pirates ML at A’s (-135)

Alex Wood was once a well-above-average starter, but those days are in the past. He owns a 6.59 ERA this season, and his 6.02 xERA and 5.21 FIP are nearly as bad. His walks have risen for the second straight year, so he’s a pitcher we want to pick on at this point. The Pirates have been far better offensively against left-handers than right-handers, so it’s a good spot to target the Buccos.

Braves-Mariners Under 7.0 runs (-110)

This is a really low total, but I think the starting pitcher matchup justifies it. Reynaldo Lopez has been outstanding for the Braves, while Luis Castillo remains a top-flight starter. His ERA might not reflect that at the moment (4.15), but his xERA, strikeout numbers, and pitch modeling metrics all suggest he’s due for improvement. If he can limit the Braves’ potent offense, Lopez should hold up his end of the bargain.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.775 units)
  • Season: 56-58-3 (-6.33 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out our free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.