Good riddance, April, and hello, May. New month, new me. My results have not been what I was hoping for to start the year, but we can officially turn the page and start fresh in May.

Wednesdays are typically one of my favorite days for baseball. We have a nice mixture of afternoon and evening contests, and this Wednesday is no exception.

Let’s look to start off the new month right with a few of my favorite betting options.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, May 1

Atlanta Braves F5 ML at Seattle Mariners (-188; FanDuel)

This is more juice than I typically like to lay in baseball, but it’s less than what the Braves deserve to be priced at. I think any number that doesn’t start with a “2” is a good price to target.

The Braves will send Chris Sale to the bump in Seattle, and he’s looked excellent in his first year with Atlanta. He boasts a 3.69 xERA and 9.38 K/9 through his first five starts, while his 112 Stuff+ represents a significant increase from last season’s mark of 94.

On the other side, Emerson Hancock has little chance against the Braves’ potent lineup. He owns an ERA and xERA above 5.00, and he’s surrendering 1.69 homers per nine innings. Nearly all of his Statcast metrics are well below average, while his Stuff+ is a pedestrian 84.

The Braves are first in the league in runs per game, and they’re fourth in wRC+ against right-handers. Seattle is merely 25th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, so the Braves have significant advantages in all areas of this matchup.

Kansas City Royals ML at Toronto Blue Jays (+116; FanDuel)

The Royals have cooled down after a red-hot start to the season, but they’ll have a shot at an upset win on Wednesday. They should have an edge on the bump, with Seth Lugo taking on Chris Bassitt.

Lugo successfully transitioned from the bullpen to the starting rotation with the Padres, and he’s continued his success with the Royals. He’s pitched to a 1.66 ERA across his first six starts, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one outing. He’s likely not going to pitch to a sub-2.00 ERA all season, but he’s established himself as an above-average major-league starter.

Bassitt has been a consistent starter for years, but at 35 years old, his best days are behind him. His ERA currently sits at 5.64, and his xERA and FIP are also north of 5.50. Only two of his offerings grade out as above average per Stuff+, and he’s throwing those pitches just 25% of the time.

The Royals have also been slightly more productive against right-handers this season, so getting them as underdogs in this spot is appealing.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, May 1

Red Sox ML vs. Giants (-110)

This might be the biggest pitching mismatch on the slate. Kutter Crawford has a 1.35 ERA and 2.81 xERA for the Red Sox, while Daulton Jefferies has a 22.50 ERA for the Giants. Granted, Jefferies’ sample size is just two innings, but he also had a 5.72 ERA in his last stint in the big leagues. I expect the Red Sox to close as significantly larger favorites in this matchup. 

Rays-Brewers Under 8.0 runs (-102)

Zach Eflin vs. Colin Rea doesn’t sound like the best pitching matchup for an under, but both starters have been effective this season. Rea seems due for a bit of regression, but he shouldn’t need to go more than four or five innings on Wednesday. Both of these squads have an off day on Thursday, so all of their top relievers should be clear to pitch.

Justin Verlander Under 5.5 strikeouts (-150)

Justin Verlander had the strikeout pitch working in his last start, punching out seven batters in just 4.1 innings. Still, I’m skeptical he can do it again. He managed just four strikeouts in his first start, and the Guardians are a notoriously difficult team to whiff. They have just a 19.6% strikeout rate against right-handers this season, the fourth-best mark in baseball.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.675 units)
  • Season: 58-61-3 (-7.00 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.