Selfishly, I love Wednesdays for baseball. We get a nice mix of afternoon and evening contests, and anytime sports are on TV in the afternoon is appreciated by stay-at-home writers. Watching baseball is so much better than choosing between Netflix, Law and Order re-runs, and Maury Povich.

All 30 teams are scheduled to be in action, with 16 total games to choose from. Eight of those contests will start at 3:37 p.m. ET or earlier, while the other eight will take place in the evening.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Wednesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, May 8

Houston Astros ML at New York Yankees (+130; Caesars)

The season could not have started any worse for the Astros. They’re currently sitting at just 12-23, good for last place in the AL West. That’s right, the team that has made it to the ALCS in seven straight seasons is currently behind the A’s and Angels in the standings.

Things don’t figure to get much easier for them on Wednesday. They’re taking on the Yankees – who own the second-best record in the American League – and will be sending Spencer Arrighetti to the bump. He owns an 8.27 ERA and an 0-3 record through four starts.

That said, Arrighetti is coming off his best performance vs. the Guardians, and his underlying metrics are strong. His 3.73 xERA is drastically lower than his actual mark, and he ranks in the 95th percentile for barrel rate and 80th percentile for average exit velocity. Arrighetti was also one of the Astros’ best pitching prospects, so it’s easy to project him for improvement moving forward.

Conversely, Carlos Rodon has been on the opposite side of the luck equation. He’s outperformed his 4.46 xERA by nearly a full run, and his Statcast metrics range from average to bad. He’s a prime regression candidate, and the Astros have historically been at their best against southpaws. This feels like an excellent opportunity to buy low on Arrighetti and the Astros and sell high on Rodon.

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals F5 Under 4.5 (-105; BetMGM)

The Orioles’ offense has gone into hibernation. They were shutout on Tuesday by Trevor Williams, and they managed three runs or fewer in two of three games vs. the Reds. That series was played at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, one of the most hitter-friendly venues in all of baseball. Overall, they’re down to 19th in wRC+ over the past seven days.

They have been more successful against southpaws than traditional pitchers, and they’ll see a lefty in Mitchell Parker on Wednesday. However, Parker has been outstanding to begin his MLB career. He owns a 2.53 ERA through three starts, and his advanced metrics suggest it’s not a fluke. His xERA sits at 2.79, while his Statcast metrics are solidly above average.

I like his chances of keeping the Orioles’ bats at bay through the first five innings, while Kyle Bradish should do the same vs. the Nationals.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, May 8

A’s ML vs. Rangers Game 2 (+120)

These teams are slated to play a doubleheader on Wednesday, so make sure you’re selecting the right contest. I’m looking to fade Rangers’ starter Jack Leiter in Game 2. Lieter was a highly-touted prospect after being selected with the second pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, but he has not had the success that most expected. He’s struggled to get batters out in the minor leagues, and he allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings in his MLB debut. The A’s have been far better than expected this season, so I’ll take my chances with them as underdogs in this matchup.

Braves F5 ML vs. Red Sox (-190)

Chris Sale gives the Braves a massive advantage on the bump over Nick Pivetta on Wednesday. Sale looks as good as ever in his first year in Atlanta, while Pivetta will be making his return to the majors following an injury. He did not look sharp in his minor-league tune-up, allowing four runs and walking four batters in just three innings. The Braves’ offense is arguably the best in baseball, so I give them a solid edge in the first five innings.

Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts (-155)

I’m doubling down on the Rodon fade on Wednesday. His strikeout numbers have plummeted in recent years, dipping from 34.6% in 2021 to just 22.6% this season. The Astros have a paltry 16.2% strikeout rate against southpaws this season, so it’s hard to imagine him getting to six strikeouts in this outing.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Monday: 2-2-1 (-0.075 units)
  • Season: 74-70-5 (-4.82 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.