Chicks dig the long ball, and bettors do, too. Home run (HR) props are some of the most popular MLB player prop bets, especially on “Dinger Tuesday.”
That said, betting on MLB home run props can be a very easy way to lose your bankroll quickly. There's more variance with HR bets than with traditional baseball wagers, so you’ll need to practice proper bankroll management and ensure that you’re making solid HR bets.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know for home run betting, including what to look for, what to avoid, and where to find them.
What are home run props?
Unlike some bets, this one is pretty self-explanatory. Home run props allow you to bet on whether or not an individual player will go yard in a particular contest. You can wager on players not to hit a home run, but most of the attention is focused on which players will hit a tank. After all, where’s the fun in betting on a player not to go yard?
Of course, picking the correct players to hit a home run on any given day is a lot tougher than it sounds. The best home run hitters in baseball – guys like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber – are typically priced in the +200 to +300 range. From a math perspective, that makes those players tough to back.
Let’s look at Pete Alonso. He hit 46 homers during the 2023 MLB season, the third-most in all of baseball. That said, he played in 154 games. That means that Alonso homered once for every 3.35 games played, which translates to roughly +235 odds. On the surface, that’s about what you’d expect his odds to be on most slates.
Sep 27, 2023; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) doubles during the eighth inning in front of Miami Marlins catcher Jacob Stallings (58) at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
However, Alonso did not hit a home run in 46 games last year. He had five multi-HR games, so those odds don’t tell the full story. In reality, he homered in just 26.6% of his total contests, which brings his true odds to +275. You don’t earn any bonus points for multi-homer games, so a player’s actual home run total can be a bit deceiving.
The best value tends to lie in the next tier down of HR hitters. The players in the +400 to +600 range might not go yard as consistently as their superstar teammates, but they offer significantly more upside when they do. If we can highlight the correct days to target those players, it’s going to provide more betting value in the long run.
How to target HR hitters
This is where things get fun. If targeting guys like Alonso is actually not the best strategy for betting HRs, who should we be taking advantage of?
The trick is to try to find guys with upside on a particular day who are being undervalued for one reason or another. There are a few different ways to go about this.
Take advantage of batter splits
This is one of the most logical first steps in the home run market. Is each team facing a right-handed or left-handed starting pitcher? Almost every MLB team has someone who specializes against pitchers of whichever handedness they’re facing that day.
For example, let’s say that the Twins are facing a left-handed starting pitcher. No one is going to confuse Michael A. Taylor with Alonso, but in 2023, Taylor was an absolute demon in those matchups. He had nine homers in just 103 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, which resulted in a .350 ISO and a .602 SLG.
Alonso had a .287 ISO and a .504 SLG against all pitchers last season, so when Taylor was facing a southpaw, he offered more power than one of the most prodigious power hitters in all of baseball.
Oct 3, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Michael A. Taylor (2) hits a single in the second inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game one of the Wildcard series for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that just because a batter is facing a particular pitcher to start the game doesn’t ensure that it'll end it that way. Most starting pitchers only go through a full lineup twice in modern baseball. Unless someone is hitting at the very top of the order, his odds of getting three at-bats against the same pitcher is unlikely. And even if he does, there’s a good chance that it's because that pitcher is having a very good game.
Using a “splits specialist” like Taylor means he’ll have to do his damage early. Once the other team goes to the bullpen – likely to someone who doesn’t throw left-handed – his odds of homering will decrease drastically. This is particularly true when targeting right-handed hitters who specialize against left-handers. Most teams have significantly more right-handers in their bullpen, so most of their late-game at-bats will come against right-handers.
It’s also important to focus on the right stats. For HR props, we only care about power. We don’t care about total bases or RBIs — we simply want guys who can put the ball over the fence. That’s why focusing on ISO and SLG are more important than things like AVG and OBP.
Pick on fly ball pitchers
The old saying goes that you can’t hit a home run on the ground. Even if you barrel up the baseball, if you don’t put the ball in the air, it’s not going to be able to go over the fence. For that reason, it makes sense to avoid pitchers who specialize in getting ground balls and target pitchers who allow a lot of fly balls.
One of the best parts about baseball is that there is data for virtually everything. That includes how pitchers get their outs. The best pitchers in the league tend to get most of their outs via strikeouts, but what happens when batters make contact? That’s a big deal in the home run market.
Not every ground ball pitcher is good, and not every fly ball pitcher is bad, but pitchers who allow a ton of flies generally tend to surrender more homers. Cristian Javier was the league-leader in fly ball rate last season with 55.6% of his batted ball events classified as fly balls. He had a relatively low 9.8% HR/FB rate, but he still allowed 1.39 homers per nine innings. That was the 10th-highest mark among qualified pitchers.
Mar 7, 2024; Jupiter, Florida, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier (53) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports
Ideally, we’re looking for pitchers who allow a lot of fly balls and have a high HR/FB rate. Guys like Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn both had a fly ball rate of at least 40% and saw more than 16% of their fly balls allowed turn into homers.
Unsurprisingly, they allowed 2.0 and 2.16 homers per nine innings, respectively, making them the only two qualified starters at 2.0 or greater. In other words, it was a good bet that at least one player was going to go yard against them, and it certainly didn’t need to be a stud batter.
Lean into advanced data
Fly ball rates are nice, but we’re really just scratching the surface of what you can do with advanced MLB data.
The regular season is long, and all players go through hot and cold streaks. Identifying both can be a good way to get some value in the homer market. Is a player making elite contact over a shorter sample size? Things like hard-hit rate, expected HR rate, and barrel rate can help identify a player who's in a groove.
What about someone trending in the opposite direction? Are they swinging the bat poorly, or are they simply getting unlucky? If a batter is still squaring up baseballs, there’s no reason to believe that his poor results will continue.
You can also look at how each batter fares against certain pitchers. Some guys absolutely tee off on fastballs while other batters hammer the soft stuff. Sites like Baseball Savant allow you to look at each player’s numbers against each pitch type, and you can do the same thing for pitchers. If you have a pitcher who throws his fastball at an above-average frequency, you might want to consider betting on a batter who has solid splits against that pitch.
Leverage Vegas odds, stadiums, and weather reports
This might seem obvious, but it’s the first place I look before placing any home run bets. Starting with the games with the highest over/under on the slate makes sense. If Vegas is anticipating a game to be high-scoring, there’s a good chance that there will be a few long balls. Sometimes that’s because an elite offense is playing, but it can also help you identify pitchers that you want to target.
One outlier you’ll want to note is games at Coors Field. While most MLB games have a Vegas total of between 7.0 and 9.0, games at Coors are almost always in the double-digits. You’ll see games there with totals of 12 runs or higher on a consistent basis due to the altitude in Denver. Of course, the oddsmakers are very familiar with what goes on at Coors Field, so the HR odds in those contests are going to be thinner than at most locations.
Oct 1, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; General wide view of Coors Field during the seventh inning between the Minnesota Twins against the Colorado Rockies. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
That said, Coors Field is far from the only hitter’s paradise in Major League Baseball. The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is actually the most homer-friendly venue in the league. Dodgers Stadium, Globe Life Field in Arlington, and Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago can also inflate homer totals.
On the other side, stadiums in San Francisco, Oakland, and Arizona are where homers go to die. Knowing the park factors for each location – specifically as they relate to homers – is vital information for HR bettors.
Keep in mind that batters of certain handedness benefit at some locations as well, such as left-handed batters at Yankee Stadium. Lefty sluggers get a boost whenever they go to New York, and righties typically get a significant boost at Fenway Park due to how those stadiums were designed.
Find a good set of projections
A lot of the points mentioned above can be accomplished simply by finding a good set of projections. Someone who is projecting home runs properly is going to take all of those factors into account – lefty/right splits, Statcast data, park factors, weather, and the Vegas total.
After delving into all of that data, it’s going to give you the calculated true odds for each player to homer on a given day. All you have to do then is compare those odds to the prices offered by the sportsbooks to identify which players are offering the most value each day.
You can also combine projections with other content produced throughout the industry. Finding proven bettors who are posting their best MLB prop bets — including homers, stolen bases, and strikeout props — can be another arrow to add to your quiver.
Can you parlay HR bets?
Absolutely! That said, as with most parlays, I would think twice before doing it. The allure of picking a few players to go yard and combining them together in hopes of a monster score is obviously appealing. Everyone wants to hit a monster ticket with a big payout that goes viral on social media.
However, winning HR bets is extremely difficult. Even if you’re finding good values to bet on, there are going to be a lot of days where you’re taking losses. Turning those plays into parlays is only going to increase the variance.
If you are going to try and parlay HRs, I would suggest also playing those bets individually. If they’re good enough to be a part of a combo wager, they should be good enough to bet on their own. Also, make sure that these HR parlay bets account for just a small portion of your bankroll.
Where can you bet on HRs?
You can bet homer props at basically every online sportsbook, which is great news for bettors. It brings us back to the No. 1 rule in all of sports betting – make sure to shop around to ensure you’re getting the best price. If Corey Seager is +300 to hit a homer on FanDuel but +400 to hit a homer on DraftKings, you’re costing yourself money if you’re not taking the better odds.
You should be shopping for all your bets across as many betting sites as you have available to you. That will vary by state, but FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Bet365, BetRivers, Fanatics, and ESPN Bet are some of the biggest to consider. Spreading your bankroll between as many sportsbooks as possible also ensures that you’re taking advantage of all the deposit bonuses available in your location.
What is Dinger Tuesday?
Nothing brings people together like Dinger Tuesday. It’s a promotion that FanDuel has run over the past few seasons that remains one of the best in the industry.
The premise is pretty simple. You need to place a HR wager of at least $25 on a particular player, and for every home run hit in that game, you are rewarded a $5 bet credit. That means that if you pick a player to homer in a game between the Angels and Dodgers, you get $5 for each home run hit between those two teams. It doesn’t matter if your player homers or not, you can still get a bet credit. It is capped at $25 per game, so you need five homers to reach the maximum.
I absolutely adore this promo. Not only is it fun to bet on homer props, but the free bets can make this promo extremely +EV. I used bet credits from Dinger Tuesday to hit multiple futures bets last year, including Wyndham Clark to win the U.S. Open and the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.
Here’s my preferred strategy:
- Opt in to the promotion. This step is the most important. If you don’t opt into the promo every week, you’re not going to earn the bet credits.
- Choose the games you want to target. I typically just go with the five or six games that have the highest Vegas total, but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule.
- Identify the players you like in those contests. Once I’ve got my games picked, I look for the batters who I think are presenting the most value. I try to stick to guys who are priced in the +400 to +600 range. That way, if one of my chosen players goes yard, it’s going to cover the rest of my HR bets for the slate. If I can cover my cash investment and gobble up the bet credits, that’s getting the best of both worlds.
- Use the bet credits before they expire. This is another big one. You can use the bet credits for anything, but they typically expire after seven days. I like to use these wagers to fund my futures bets, but you can use them to bet on sides, totals, moneylines, and props as well.
One thing to keep in mind is that you might be capped at a certain number of bet credits per slate. If you’re capped at a maximum of $50 (e.g., 10 homers in your selected games), you might not need to select as many contests to get the full benefit.
If you’re not capped, you can pick as many games as you want to try and rack them up. I still wouldn’t wager on bad games – like games with stud pitchers or games played in pitcher’s parks – but you can be a bit more aggressive knowing that you’re getting more back in credits.
