MNF Steel City Showdown: Steelers vs. Giants Close Week 8
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
Monday Night Preview, Afternoon Delight: Catching my breath after an exhilarating slate of Week 8 games, there’s no time for rest—we’re at it again. Welcome back for another manic Monday in the Betting Life universe with my hand notes on tonight’s game between the Giants and Steelers.
Giants (2-5) at Steelers (5-2): Could be an early night in the Steel City as Mike Tomlin (earner of large compensations) and his Steelers host the downward-spiraling Giants. For Pittsburgh, getting to five wins sure hasn’t been pretty—which actually seems naturally fitting for this team and its longstanding track record of success through grit. There’s a growing line of blowhard analysts that owes this team an apology (slowly raises hand) for shortchanging the offense, especially the quarterback situation. They say when you play two QBs, you really have zero. Maybe in this rare case for PIT two does equal two …
Going back on last week’s tape with the change under center to Russell Wilson read as particularly interesting to me, considering how similar of a style PIT played. What I mean is, quarterbacks with Justin Fields’ relatively lopsided approach to the position generally call for a unique play-calling style—and we didn't get that. The Steelers boasted the second-highest run rate in the NFL behind the Eagles coming in, and maintained their heavy focus on the ground attack with Wilson both in terms of total attempts (36) and frequency (55%).
Despite Fields protecting the ball (0.6% INT:Att) it appears Tomlin simply had enough of the elevated sack rate causing negative plays and derailing drives to create offensive inconsistency. Wilson slung it well (264-2-0) all things considered, but it’s the ability to run a more conventional under-center offense that keeps him there. Now PIT can run more play-action to open up one-on-one contested ball situations for George Pickens—who’s quickly proving to turn 50/50 balls into 60/40s.
Flip it over to the Giants’ side and it’s audible grunts all around. I’m sorry, but it’s an abject disaster in New York. Simply put, teams should never be this bad on offense over a two-game stretch with a healthy “franchise” QB. Big Blue scored 10 total points, averaging 24% fewer yards than the field (yes, including Carolina!) in that span. Woof. The defense continues to stymie the pass, but think about it—you’d have to be the ‘85 Bears and ‘00 Ravens rolled into one to compensate for this level of QB play.
Will the Giants get it right eventually this season? Perhaps. Does it start tonight against an excellent Pittsburgh defense? That’s where I pose serious doubt.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The Grand Total
- Running Against The Wind
The Grand Total🏈🧮—Little Giants
Get your leather helmets and scratchy-sounding radios ready for tonight’s tilt between the Giants and Steelers. With a whopping game total of 36.5, books can’t help but let us know not to expect many fireworks tonight, with good reason.
The Steel Curtain would be proud of this 2024 unit, they can play D. Having to face T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Patrick Queen every down presents multiple fail points at the interior to any well-laid scheme. That’s without mentioning Pittsburgh keeping Joey Porter Jr. in their back pocket, one of the true shutdown corners in the NFL today. Mike Tomlin and Teryl Austin do a great job maximizing versatile skill sets by tailoring game plans, deploying a Cover-3, zone-heavy scheme featuring a true 4-6 DB mix. And it’s that mix which provides the avenue to versatility on the clipboard and the pathway to their success—being the No. 2 scoring defense through seven weeks isn’t easy.
I’m leaning into the continuing collapse of the Giants’ offense tonight; they stink. The Lions scored two fewer points against Tennessee yesterday than NYG has in four games! At 14.1 PPG, 4.5 yards/play, -0.12 EPA/play, 3.9 yards/rush, and 5.2 yards attempt there’s almost no upside. That is to say, except for rookie phenom WR Malik Nabers, who will absolutely be facing the brunt of Porter and the Steelers’ ire. PIT’s done such a great job versus No. 1 wideouts like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, I think it totally disrupts the Giants’ only connection.
New York’s gone under 16 points in four of their last five, against significantly worse defenses and coaches. START THE Drew Lock CHANTS!
THE BET: New York Team Total Under 15.5 Points (-118) DraftKings
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 It’s Week 10?! Yes, catch Claudia and Thor as they take a peek at the Early Betting Lines in College Football.
🏈 Malik Nabers’ receptions total is what? Check out all the Player Props for tonight.
🔮 Matt LaMarca offers his own breakdown of Steelers-Giants on Monday Night Football.
🌧️ Will Puka and Kupp make it rain in Seattle? Check out the NFL Week 9 early betting lines.
🤯 World Series, MNF, NBA, and NHL. All tonight. It’s a Sports Equinox!
Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽♂️🏈—Backing Harris’ Ground Game
Psyche! I am absolutely not going there. Well, maybe beyond encouraging everyone to participate in their American civic duty and vote, whichever way it may be. It’s truly beyond me how people can spend their time arguing on social media about politics all day yet not cast a ballot. Remember, getting one person to join you on Election Day is worth 1,000 snarky memes. Enough of that, more of this …
With most of the case laid out before us at this point, there’s one phase we may actually see yardage gained. Wow! What a concept! The Giants’ rush D is a little sketchy even if it’s not entirely their fault. The defense relies on the offense to sustain drives and provide rest. Then, of course, the pressure is constantly on if and when they don’t score whatsoever—explaining at least some of the disastrous metrics on the spreadsheet.
- 5.4 Yards Per Rush—Worst
- 3.6 Yards After Contact Per Rush—31st
- 9 +20-Yard Rushes—Worst
- 12.9% Explosive Rush Rate—Worst
I mentioned Pittsburgh sustaining its rush rate through the QB change, which only meant good things for Najee Harris in terms of volume (image above, left). The Steeler bellcow looks like a new man the last couple weeks, even before the swap. And it’s not just in terms of production (image above, right) and back-to-back 100-yard games—he’s literally running faster than he has all season, according to NextGen stats (image below).
Pittsburgh’s going to run early and often, using Harris as the hammer. And unless something crazy happens, tonight’s game script should stay in place for carries throughout. Our aggregate projections agree (72 rushing yards), nearly 10 above tonight’s line.
THE BET: Najee Harris O62.5 Rushing Yards (-113) FanDuel
Are Sharps Riding Steel City Home Favorite?
Source: Sharp Hunter
Week 8 wraps up in the NFL with the Steelers hosting the Giants on Monday Night Football.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking the sharpest bettors and what they’re betting. Monday, Sunday … everyday. Not just the NFL—but college football, Major League Baseball, and the NBA.
As of Sunday Night, we’re looking at the Steelers as 6-point home favorites, and we have a total of 36.5 at most books.
We’re seeing a lot of bets on the Steelers -6 at Sharp Hunter and it feels like the sharps are on the right side here.
The Steelers have a huge advantage on the defensive line in this one, no matter what rankings or stats you look at. The Giants’ O-line is not very good.
And if you look at DVOA Team Rankings, PIT (14th) has a major edge on NYG (24th).
Trends? How about this one? The Steelers are 21-1 SU as the home team on MNF going back to 1992.
And Giants QB Daniel Jones under the lights … again not good. He’s 1-15 SU and 6-10 ATS in prime-time night games.
The Steelers have been one of the bigger surprises this season. I don’t see any reason to bet against them in this spot against a disappointing NYG team on Monday night, especially given Jones’ brutal record in prime time. If I’m playing this game, I’ll play the home favorite.
Based on the bets we’re seeing, the sharps we track at Sharp Hunter seem to agree.
